If you’re staring at your pool sheet this week and feeling like everything is a trap, honestly, you’re probably right. Week 7 of the 2025 season is a absolute minefield. We’ve hit that point in the year where the "September Wonders" are starting to fray at the edges, and the teams we thought were dead—looking at you, Chicago—are suddenly breathing down everyone’s necks.
Making your week 7 nfl pick em choices isn't just about looking at the standings anymore. You have to look at the training room.
The injury report this week reads like a casualty list from a medieval battle. When you have teams like the Buccaneers hitting No. 1 in the power rankings only to lose Mike Evans to a broken collarbone and Chris Godwin to a fibula injury in the same stretch, the math changes. This isn't the same league it was three weeks ago.
The London Hangover and the Wembley Factor
We have to talk about the Los Angeles Rams and the Jacksonville Jaguars. They’re kicking things off early at Wembley, and if you haven’t been paying attention, the Jaguars basically live in London now. They’re used to the fish and chips; the Rams are still trying to figure out what time zone they’re in.
The Rams are coming in as 3-point favorites, but Puka Nacua is dealing with that nagging ankle. Without him, Matthew Stafford is basically throwing to a rotating cast of "who’s that guy?"
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I’m leaning Jaguars here. It’s not because they’re the better team—they’ve both been hovering around that .500 mark—but because the "London home field" is a real thing. The travel usually nukes West Coast teams. Taking a home dog in London is a classic pick em move that separates the leaders from the losers.
Sorting Through the Divisional Chaos
The AFC West and NFC North are basically a bar fight at this point. The Raiders are heading into Arrowhead as double-digit underdogs. Usually, I’d tell you to never bet against Patrick Mahomes at home, but the Chiefs have been playing some weirdly close games lately. They just beat the Lions in a game where they didn't commit a single penalty—which, let’s be real, is a statistical anomaly.
The Raiders are getting +11.5. In a divisional rivalry? That is a lot of points. Maxx Crosby is banged up with a knee issue, but he’s expected to play. If the Raiders can just muddy up the game, they cover. You don't necessarily need them to win for your spread-based pools, but for straight-up pick em, you probably still stick with KC while holding your breath.
Key Matchups to Watch
- Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings: The Eagles are 1.5-point favorites, but they’re losing bodies. Cam Jurgens is out, and Saquon Barkley had a concussion scare. The Vikings are at home and they’re desperate. This feels like a spot where the underdog bark is louder than the favorite's bite.
- Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys: Jayden Daniels is dealing with a hamstring. If he can’t go, and Marcus Mariota is under center, the Cowboys (even as an enigma) should handle business at home.
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: This one happened on Thursday, and it was a mess. The Bengals' defense is giving up over 400 yards a game. If you missed this, just know the Bengals are officially in the "wait until next year" category without a healthy Joe Burrow.
Why Everyone is Wrong About the Chicago Bears
People are finally starting to realize the Bears are kinda... good? They’ve won three straight and Caleb Williams is starting to look like the guy everyone promised he was. They’re hosting the Saints this week.
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New Orleans is 1-5. They’re missing Kendre Miller and Erik McCoy. Spencer Rattler is playing surprisingly clean football, but he’s got no help. The Bears' defense has been creating turnovers at a ridiculous rate—+10 in their last three games.
If you’re looking for a "lock" in your week 7 nfl pick em, Chicago is probably it. It feels weird saying that, but the numbers don't lie. They’re outscoring opponents by nearly a touchdown on average during this heater.
The Monday Night Doubleheader Trap
We’ve got two games on Monday night: Bucs at Lions and Texans at Seahawks.
The Lions are 5.5-point favorites against Tampa. Under normal circumstances, I’d say Detroit cruises. But the Lions just lost Brian Branch to a suspension for that post-game fight with the Chiefs. Their secondary is already thin. Baker Mayfield is playing at an MVP level, even if his receiving corps is decimated.
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Then you have Houston at Seattle. This is the hardest game on the board. The Seahawks are 10-1 under Mike Macdonald on the road, but they’re at home here. Sam Darnold has been efficient, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba has officially ascended to WR1 status.
The Texans are 2-3 and Nico Collins is a game-time decision with that head injury. If Collins is out, C.J. Stroud loses his primary explosive threat. I’m taking Seattle at home. Lumen Field is too loud for a struggling Texans offensive line to handle on a Monday night.
Actionable Strategy for Your Pool
Don't just pick the better record. That’s how you end up in the middle of the pack. To win a week 7 nfl pick em challenge, you need to identify the "dead" teams.
- Fade the Saints and Browns: Both are 1-5 and have essentially checked out. The Browns are starting Dillon Gabriel, and while he’s a gamer, that roster is in shambles.
- Trust the Home Dogs: The Jaguars (in London) and the Cowboys (at home against a hobbled Jayden Daniels) are high-value picks.
- Check the Hamstrings: Hamstring injuries for QBs like Daniels and WRs like Emeka Egbuka are notorious for being re-aggravated. If a star is "active" but limited, lean toward the opponent.
To finalize your card, look at the turnover differentials. Teams like the Bears and Seahawks are winning because they aren't giving the ball away. In a week with this many injuries, the team that simply holds onto the football is going to walk away with the "W."
Go through your list again and look at the New York Jets. They’re 0-6. They’re playing the Panthers. Even with Bryce Young out and Andy Dalton potentially starting, can you really trust the Jets? Honestly, probably not. Take Carolina and don't look back.