If you’re still staring at the spread for the Eagles and Giants game, honestly, I get it. We’ve all seen this movie before. The Birds fly into East Rutherford, the G-Men look like they’re stuck in second gear, and the result feels like a foregone conclusion. But the NFL has a funny way of humbling anyone who thinks they've found a "lock."
Week 6 of the 2025 season is shaping up to be a total minefield. We’ve got a London game that starts while most of us are still pouring our first cup of coffee, a massive Sunday Night showdown in Arrowhead, and two Monday night games to clean up the mess. If you're looking for week 6 football picks that actually hold water, you have to stop looking at what these teams were in September and start looking at who is actually healthy enough to take the field right now.
The Chaos of the NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
The Thursday Night opener is usually a "don't overthink it" situation. The Eagles have owned this rivalry lately. But let's be real for a second. Jaxson Dart is starting to look like a real NFL quarterback, and the Giants defense has been scrappy enough to make life miserable for Jalen Hurts.
Most people are hammering the Eagles -7. I’m not so sure. The Giants are 30th in +EPA%, which is terrifying if you're a New York fan, but divisional games at home under the lights? That’s where logic goes to die. Philadelphia is coming off a frustrating loss to the Broncos, and they might be feeling the pressure. If Saquon Barkley is even slightly slowed down by that nagging soreness we’ve been hearing about, the Giants might just hang around long enough to cover.
Breaking Down the Sunday Slate
Sunday starts at 9:30 a.m. ET with the Broncos and Jets in London. Bo Nix has been surprisingly efficient, mostly because the Broncos have the 4th-best rushing attack in the league. Meanwhile, the Jets are winless and haven’t recorded a single takeaway all year. That’s almost impossible. Honestly, unless Aaron Glenn finds a way to force a turnover, Nix is going to systematically pick them apart.
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Then we get to the afternoon window. It’s crowded.
The Ravens are sitting at 1-4. Read that again. One and four. They were Super Bowl favorites a month ago, and now they’re facing a Rams team that ranks 2nd in total offense. With Lamar Jackson officially ruled out through the Week 7 bye, Baltimore is leaning on Tyler Huntley. It’s a mismatch on paper. The Rams' defense hasn't been elite, but against a Ravens front seven that is currently "banged-up" would be an understatement, Matthew Stafford should have a field day.
The Prime Time Heavyweight: Lions at Chiefs
This is the game everyone is circling for their week 6 football picks. Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead. The Lions have won four straight. The Chiefs? They’re actually sitting below .500 at 2-3. It feels weird even typing that.
Detroit's offense is a juggernaut right now. Jahmyr Gibbs is playing like he's controlled by a video game, and Jared Goff has been incredibly clean with the ball. But it's Kansas City. It's Patrick Mahomes. Even with a shaky start and some weird injuries on the offensive line—like Josh Simmons being out for personal reasons—you never bet against the Chiefs in prime time.
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The line is sitting at Chiefs -2.5. That tells you everything you need to know. The Vegas guys are basically saying this is a coin flip. I’m leaning toward the underdog Lions here. Their momentum is real, and the Chiefs' defense has shown some serious cracks when facing elite rushing teams.
Monday Night Doubleheader Drama
We get two games to wrap things up.
- Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons: Buffalo is coming off a loss to the Patriots. Josh Allen rarely loses two in a row. Atlanta is 1-3 and coming off a bye, so they're fresh, but they've been wildly inconsistent.
- Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders: This is the rookie duel we’ve been waiting for. Caleb Williams vs. Jayden Daniels. Washington has Daniels back from that knee injury, and they looked great against the Chargers. Chicago has won two straight. This one is going to be high-scoring.
What Most People Are Missing This Week
Injuries are the invisible hand of the NFL. We see the big names like Brock Purdy being out (Mac Jones gets the start for the 49ers against Tampa Bay) or Kyler Murray being sidelined with a foot injury, but it’s the smaller stuff that kills you.
Look at the San Francisco 49ers. Losing Fred Warner for the season with a broken ankle is a catastrophic blow to their identity. They’re facing a Buccaneers team that just beat Seattle 38-35. The Niners are -3 favorites, but without Warner to police the middle of the field, Baker Mayfield could carve them up.
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Then you have the Colts. Anthony Richardson suffered an orbital fracture while warming up last week. It’s bizarre. But Joe Flacco—or whoever they roll out—is actually 5-0 straight up and against the spread in this system. Sometimes the backup is the better bet.
Navigating the Betting Lines
- The Safe Bet: Steelers -5.5 against the Browns. Cleveland is a mess, David Njoku is hurt, and Mike Tomlin simply doesn't lose these games.
- The Upset Special: Saints +3.5 against the Patriots. New England is coming off a huge win over Buffalo, which feels like a classic "letdown" spot. Spencer Rattler showed some guts last week.
- The Stay Away: Bengals at Packers. Green Bay is a massive -14 favorite. That is a huge number for a divisional game, even if Cincinnati is struggling.
Before you lock in your final decisions, double-check the weather in Pittsburgh and Green Bay. October in the North can get messy fast. Also, keep an eye on the 49ers' wide receiver room; Jauan Jennings is playing through broken ribs and multiple ankle sprains. That’s tough, but at some point, the body just gives out.
Focus on the teams with established rushing lanes this week. Teams like the Broncos and Lions are winning because they aren't asking their quarterbacks to be superheroes every single play. That’s the secret to surviving a chaotic Week 6.
To get the most out of your Sunday, make sure to set your fantasy lineups before the 9:30 a.m. London kickoff and monitor the active/inactive list for the Ravens-Rams game specifically, as those late-breaking defensive injuries will likely decide the total.