Week 4 is finally in the rearview mirror, and honestly, it left most of us feeling a bit dizzy. We saw the Eagles and Bills maintain their dominance, but the middle of the pack is absolute chaos right now. If you're looking for week 5 nfl picks straight up, you have to look past the records. This week is the first time we're dealing with bye weeks, which means the Falcons, Bears, Packers, and Steelers are all sitting out. It changes the math. You’ve got a smaller pool of games, but the stakes feel significantly higher because we're starting to see who the pretenders really are.
Why Week 5 NFL Picks Straight Up Are Trickier Than They Look
Most people just look at the home team or the flashy quarterback and call it a day. That’s a mistake. Especially this week, where we have an international game in London and a few massive divisional rivalries that historically throw logic out the window.
The Minnesota Vikings are heading across the pond to face the Cleveland Browns at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. London games are notorious for being sloppy, but the Vikings have momentum. However, keep an eye on rookie QB Dillon Gabriel. Making your first start in London is a tall order. The Browns' defense hasn't been world-breaking, but in a neutral site game, the "home" team advantage is basically non-existent.
The Big Games: Sorting Through the Noise
Let’s talk about the Buffalo Bills. They are 4-0 and look like a juggernaut. They host the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football. On paper, it looks like a blowout. But Drake Maye has shown some serious spark lately, leading New England to 25 points last week. Buffalo should win this—Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level—but rivalry games in Orchard Park can get weird when the wind starts whipping off Lake Erie.
- Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars: This Monday night clash is fascinating. The Chiefs are struggling to find their rhythm at 2-2, while the Jags are sitting pretty at 3-1. Jacksonville’s defense leads the league in takeaways. If Patrick Mahomes keeps trying to force plays that aren't there, the Jags will punish him.
- Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens: C.J. Stroud vs. Lamar Jackson. This is the "Show Me" game of the week. Baltimore needs this to prove they're still the kings of the AFC North, but Houston’s offensive line has been surprisingly stout.
- Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets: The "Micah Parsons Bowl" is going to be a defensive slugfest. The Jets are a "funnel" defense—they force you into the slot and to the tight ends. If Jake Ferguson is healthy, he might have 12 catches.
Breaking Down the West Coast Matchups
The Thursday night game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams is already looking like a battle of attrition. Brock Purdy’s toe injury is the elephant in the room. If he’s out and Mac Jones starts, the Rams (3-1) become a much safer pick. Matthew Stafford is quietly putting up massive yardage numbers again, and Kyren Williams is a touchdown machine in the red zone.
✨ Don't miss: Las Vegas Aces vs Indiana Fever: Why the Box Score Rarely Tells the Whole Story
Then you have the Washington Commanders at the Los Angeles Chargers. Jayden Daniels is returning to the lineup, which gives Washington a much-needed explosive element. But the Chargers' defense, led by a revitalized pass rush, might be too much for a rookie-led offensive line to handle over four quarters.
Surprising Trends to Watch
Did you know the Tennessee Titans have a 3-18 record against the spread since 2024? They are essentially the "get right" team of the NFL. They travel to face the Arizona Cardinals this week. Arizona is coming off extra rest and historically performs well against non-conference opponents. If you're picking straight up, betting against the Titans is basically the safest trend in football right now.
The Miami Dolphins are also in a weird spot. Mike McDaniel is on a bit of a hot seat, and they travel to Carolina to face a Panthers team that is suddenly feisty. Carolina’s secondary is playing top-10 football, which is a nightmare for a Dolphins team that relies on timing and speed.
Strategic Action Steps for Your Picks
If you're locking in your picks this weekend, don't just follow the crowd. Start by checking the final injury reports for the London game; jet lag and turf conditions at Tottenham are real variables.
Focus on the "trench battles" in the Cowboys-Jets game, as the Jets' ability to stifle outside receivers like George Pickens (if shadowed by Sauce Gardner) means you should look at the middle-of-the-field targets. Finally, trust the rest. Teams like Arizona coming off a Thursday game have a massive physiological advantage over teams like Tennessee that are traveling cross-country after a blowout loss. Stick to the teams with established offensive identities and avoid the "trap" of picking a desperate team just because they are "due" for a win.