Fantasy football is basically a game of psychological warfare against yourself. By the time we hit week 4 start em sit em decisions, the sample size is just large enough to be dangerous. You're looking at your 0-3 record and thinking about blowing up the whole roster because your second-round pick hasn't found the end zone yet. Stop. Deep breath.
Week 4 is usually when the "flukes" reveal themselves. That random backup tight end with two touchdowns? He’s probably about to disappear. The superstar receiver who has been double-teamed into oblivion for three weeks? He’s likely due for a 120-yard explosion against a bottom-tier secondary. Context is everything. If you aren't looking at snap counts and target shares over raw fantasy points, you're playing checkers while your league-mates are playing chess.
Quarterbacks You Can Trust and One You Probably Shouldn't
It's tempting to chase the hot hand, but the quarterback position in 2026 has become increasingly volatile. We’re seeing more "shell coverages" that force short, dink-and-dunk passes, capping the ceiling of traditional pocket passers. Honestly, if your QB doesn't have at least 30 yards of rushing upside per game, they need to be elite through the air to justify a start in most formats.
Take Jayden Daniels, for instance. Even as a young player, his rushing floor makes him a weekly "start." On the flip side, you’ve got veterans who might have a great name but a terrible matchup. If you're looking at a QB facing a defense like the Jets or the Browns, who specialize in taking away the deep ball, you might want to pivot.
Check the injury reports for the offensive line. This is the most underrated part of week 4 start em sit em choices. If a quarterback's left tackle is out and he’s facing a premier edge rusher, his completion percentage is going to tank. It doesn't matter how good the receivers are if the QB is on his back.
The Streaming Reality
If you're streaming, look for the high-total games in Vegas. Oddsmakers are usually smarter than fantasy "experts." If a game has an over/under of 48.5, there’s going to be scoring. Period. Don't get cute and start a "better" real-life QB in a game projected to be a 17-14 slog. You want the chaos of a shootout.
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Running Back Volatility: Volume is King
Running back is a brutal position. By Week 4, the "dead zone" RBs—those guys you drafted in rounds 4 through 7—are either becoming workhorses or losing their jobs to rookies.
Look at the snap percentages. A guy might have had 15 carries last week, but if he only played 35% of the snaps and got lucky with goal-line carries, he's a prime "sit" candidate. You want the guy who is on the field for third downs. Those targets are gold in PPR (Point Per Reception) leagues. In fact, a target for a running back is worth roughly 2.5 times more than a carry in terms of expected fantasy points.
Chuba Hubbard is a great example of a player people often overlook. When the offense around him stabilizes, his volume makes him an RB2 despite not being a "flashy" name. Meanwhile, you might have a "star" stuck in a committee where the coach is riding the "hot hand." That's a nightmare for your lineup consistency.
Why Matchups Matter for RBs
Some defenses are "funnel" defenses. They stop the run so well that teams just stop trying. If your RB is playing a front seven that allows under 3.5 yards per carry, you're praying for a touchdown to save your day. Check the "Defensive Adjusted Value Over Average" (DVOA) stats. It sounds nerdy, but it's basically just a way to see if a defense is actually good or if they've just played bad teams.
Wide Receivers: The Target Share Trap
The biggest mistake people make in week 4 start em sit em is chasing last week's points. A receiver catches a 70-yard bomb and everyone rushes to the waiver wire. But did he only have two targets? If so, that's a prayer, not a process.
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You want receivers with a target share above 25%. These are the "alpha" dogs. Guys like Justin Jefferson or CeeDee Lamb are obvious, but what about the WR3s who are seeing consistent looks?
- Air Yards: This is a metric that tells you how far downfield a player is being targeted. High air yards + low catches = a breakout is coming.
- Red Zone Targets: Some guys are just built for the end zone. If a receiver is 6'4" and gets looked at every time the team is inside the 10-yard line, he’s a start.
- Slot vs. Perimeter: If your receiver plays mostly in the slot and is facing a team with a weak nickel corner, he’s going to feast on short passes all day.
The Weather Factor
We're getting into that time of year where wind starts to matter. Rain is fine—receivers actually have an advantage in the rain because they know where they are turning and the defender doesn't. But wind? Wind over 15-20 mph kills the deep ball. If you have a deep-threat receiver playing in a windstorm, sit him. He’s not going to get the opportunities.
Tight Ends: A Landscape of Despair
Let's be real: tight end is a wasteland most weeks. Unless you have one of the top three guys, you're basically guessing. But there is a method to the madness.
In week 4 start em sit em, focus on the "routes run" metric for TEs. You want a tight end who is actually out there running patterns, not staying in to block because the right tackle is a turnstile. If a TE runs a route on 80% of the QB's dropbacks, he will eventually produce.
Defensive Streamers and Kicker Logic
Stop holding onto a "big name" defense if they have a bad matchup. Defense is entirely about the opponent. You want to start whoever is playing the team with the most sacks allowed or the most interceptions thrown. If a backup QB is starting for the opposition, that defense is an automatic "start."
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Kickers? Just pick someone on a team that moves the ball but struggles in the red zone. Indoor stadiums are a plus. No wind, no variables, just points.
Actionable Steps for Your Week 4 Roster
To actually win your matchup this week, you need to move beyond "vibes" and look at the hard data that predicts future success rather than rewarding past luck.
Audit your Bench: Look at your bench players. Are any of them seeing an increase in snaps over the last three weeks? If a rookie's playtime has gone from 10% to 30% to 55%, he needs to be on your radar for a start very soon, possibly this week if the matchup is right.
Check the Vegas Totals: Before you lock your lineup, go to a sportsbook site and look at the "Player Props." If the betting line for a player's receiving yards is 75.5, but you're thinking of sitting him, the "sharps" think he's going to have a big day. Trust the money.
Watch the Injury Reports: Not just the "Out" or "Doubtful" tags. Look at the "Limited" participants on Wednesday and Thursday. A star receiver playing through a lingering hamstring issue is often a "decoy." He might be on the field, but he won't be explosive. If you have a healthy WR3 with a great matchup, they might actually have a higher floor.
Move Your Players: Put your latest-starting players in your "Flex" spot. If someone gets hurt in pre-game warmups for the Sunday night or Monday night game, you have more flexibility to swap them out for a different position. If you put a 1:00 PM player in your Flex, you've locked yourself in. This is a simple trick that separates the pros from the amateurs.