Fantasy football is basically a game of overreacting until you finally realize you overreacted to the wrong thing. By the time we hit the week 4 sit start window, the "small sample size" excuse starts to feel pretty thin. We’ve seen three games. We know who is getting the targets and who is just cardio-running routes for an offense that can't move the chains.
You’ve likely got a star player who has been a total bust so far. Maybe it’s a high-draft-pick tight end who seems more interested in blocking than catching passes. Or perhaps you’re looking at a waiver wire darling and wondering if the magic is real. Honestly, Week 4 is the pivot point. It’s where the "studs" start losing their "must-start" status and the "flukes" become "fixtures."
The Logic of the Bench: When to Walk Away
Sitting a player you drafted in the second round feels like admitting defeat. It’s painful. But in the NFL, three weeks of data is a trend, not a fluke. If a coaching staff has shown they don't trust your running back in the red zone through twenty days of football, they probably won't suddenly change their mind on a random Sunday in late September.
Take the wide receiver position. If a guy is seeing a 15% target share and his quarterback is averaging 180 passing yards per game, the math just isn't there. You’re praying for a 50-yard touchdown that probably isn't coming. That’s a "sit." Conversely, a "start" is often about identifying the defense that couldn't stop a high school team from crossing the fifty-yard line.
Running Backs: Volume vs. Efficiency
The week 4 sit start conversation usually begins and ends with the backfield. We are seeing a massive shift in how teams use "committees." The workhorse back is a dying breed, and if you don't have one of the elite five, you’re playing a guessing game.
Look at the usage rates.
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Is your back getting the "green zone" touches? That’s the area inside the five-yard line. If they are getting pulled for a goal-line specialist, their ceiling is capped. For example, if you’re looking at a guy like Kyren Williams (depending on the year and health), the volume is king. Even if he’s inefficient, you play him. But if you have a "satellite back" who needs 6 catches just to be viable in PPR, and they're facing a defense that excels at covering the flat? Bench them.
You have to be ruthless. A player like Chuba Hubbard or Jerome Ford might not be a "household name," but if the matchup shows a projected 15+ carries against a bottom-five rush defense, they are better starts than a struggling veteran like Travis Etienne in a brutal road matchup against a stout front seven. It’s about the path of least resistance.
Quarterback Streams: Don't Be a Hero
Don't marry your quarterback. Unless you have Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, or Patrick Mahomes, you should be looking at the waiver wire every single week. The week 4 sit start landscape often features some "ugly" starts that actually make a ton of sense.
Think about the "Konami Code" quarterbacks—guys who run. A quarterback who runs for 40 yards is giving you the equivalent of a passing touchdown before they even throw the ball. If a guy like Jayden Daniels or Anthony Richardson is available or on your bench, and they are facing a man-heavy defense that leaves the middle of the field open for scrambles, you start them. Period. Even if they throw two interceptions, the rushing floor saves your week.
The Revenge Game and Other Myths
People love a good narrative. "He’s playing his old team!" It makes for a great tweet. It rarely makes for a great fantasy score. Coaches don't call plays to help a player get "revenge." They call plays to win the game and keep their jobs.
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Instead of looking for narratives, look for "funnel" defenses. Some teams are so good at stopping the run that they "funnel" every single play into the passing game. If your mediocre WR3 is playing a team with a lockdown secondary but a terrible run defense, sit him. The ball isn't going his way because the offense will just run the ball down the defense's throat.
Tight Ends: The Wasteland
Let’s be real. The tight end position is a disaster most years. If you don't have a top-three option, you are essentially throwing a dart at a board while blindfolded.
For week 4 sit start decisions at TE, look for one thing: routes run. Not targets. Targets can be flukey. But if a tight end is on the field for 80% of the dropbacks and running a route on nearly all of them, the targets will eventually come. If your tight end is staying in to pass block because the left tackle is a human turnstile, sit him. He’s a glorified offensive lineman that week.
Wide Receiver Matchups: The Shadow Cornerback
One of the biggest mistakes fantasy managers make is looking at "Passing Defense Rank." It’s a trap. A team might be ranked 2nd in passing defense because their run defense is so bad that nobody bothers to throw against them.
You need to look at specific cornerback matchups. If your WR1 is going to be "shadowed" by a lockdown corner like Sauce Gardner or Patrick Surtain II, you need to lower your expectations. It doesn't mean you bench a superstar, but it might mean you start a high-upside WR3 over a "safe" WR2 who is about to get erased from the game plan.
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Defensive Volatility
Defense/Special Teams (DST) is the most volatile position in the game. In week 4, we start to see which "elite" defenses from last year are actually just mediocre this year. Don't chase points from the previous week. Look for the team playing against a turnover-prone rookie quarterback or a backup offensive lineman. Pressure leads to sacks, sacks lead to fumbles, and fumbles lead to defensive touchdowns. That’s the only way to get a double-digit score from your DST.
Actionable Strategy for Week 4
Stop looking at the names on the back of the jerseys and start looking at the opportunities. Fantasy football is a game of volume and probability.
- Check the Vegas Totals: If a game has an over/under of 38, avoid it. There won't be enough touchdowns to go around. If the total is 51, you want pieces of that game, even the secondary options.
- The 3-Target Rule: If a player hasn't seen at least 5 targets in any of the first three weeks, they shouldn't be in your lineup unless you are in a 16-team league or desperate.
- Watch the Injury Reports: Not just for your players, but for their offensive linemen. If a star RB loses his Pro Bowl center and right tackle in the same week, his production will crater.
- Trust the Air Yards: Players with high "Air Yards" but low catches are prime "buy low" and "start" candidates. The big play is coming; the math demands it.
The week 4 sit start phase is about clearing the fog. The preseason hype is gone. The "he looked great in camp" stories are irrelevant. It’s time to play the players who are actually getting the ball in their hands. Be bold enough to bench a "name" for a "producer." Your record will thank you when the playoffs roll around.
Check your local weather reports for late-season wind—though in September, it’s usually the heat and humidity you have to worry about for those heavy-set linemen wearing down in the fourth quarter. If a game is in a dome, tie-break goes to the pass catchers. If it's a mud bowl, give me the power backs. Keep it simple. Play the volume. Win the week.
Next Steps for Your Roster:
Identify the player on your bench with the highest target share over the last two weeks. Compare their matchup to your lowest-performing starter. If the bench player has a better defensive matchup (higher EPA allowed per play), make the swap before the Thursday night kickoff. Check the "active/inactive" list exactly 90 minutes before kickoff to ensure no late-breaking "flu-like symptoms" or calf strains ruin your week.