Look, the first three weeks of any season are basically a fever dream. We see ranked teams steamroll FCS opponents, backup quarterbacks looking like Heisman finalists against "prevent" defenses, and fans convincing themselves that this is finally their year. But Week 4? That’s when the reality of the 2025-2026 season actually hits.
The honeymoon is over.
We're moving past the "cupcake" phase and diving headfirst into conference play. For some teams, like No. 9 Illinois and No. 19 Indiana, this weekend is a legacy-defining moment. For others, like Auburn and Oklahoma, it’s a weirdly personal homecoming. If you’re looking for safe bets, honestly, you’re in the wrong place. College football is chaotic, and week 4 college football predictions are notoriously difficult because the sample size is still so small.
The Drama in Norman: Jackson Arnold’s Revenge?
This is the storyline everyone is buzzing about. Jackson Arnold, the former Oklahoma blue-chipper who was supposed to be the "next one" in Norman, is coming back to town. Only this time, he's wearing Auburn orange.
It’s personal. It’s messy. It’s exactly why we love this sport.
Arnold has been clean so far, throwing seven touchdowns and—crucially—zero interceptions through three games. Oklahoma, meanwhile, is countering with John Mateer, a transfer from Washington State who has been an absolute yardage machine. He’s currently sitting at second nationally in total offense.
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The Sooners are favored by about a touchdown, but there’s a vibe here. If Auburn’s defense can rattle Mateer, Arnold might just walk out of his old stadium with the ultimate "I told you so" victory. Most experts are leaning OU, but the +6.5 for Auburn feels like a lot of points for a game that’s going to be played with this much emotion.
Big Ten Chaos: Illinois, Indiana, and the Battle for Respect
Nobody expected the Illinois vs. Indiana game to be a Top 25 showdown when the schedules were released. Yet, here we are.
Illinois has been a defensive juggernaut, giving up only 9 points across three games. That’s not a typo. Nine points total. Luke Altmyer is playing the best football of his career, and Bret Bielema has that program looking like a legitimate Big Ten contender.
But then there’s Indiana.
Curt Cignetti didn't come to Bloomington to lose. The Hoosiers just dropped 73 points on Indiana State and look incredibly explosive with Fernando Mendoza at the helm. This is a "red-out" game at Memorial Stadium, and the atmosphere will be suffocating. While the Illini are ranked higher, the oddsmakers actually have Indiana as a 6.5-point favorite. Why? Because Bloomington at night is a weird place where ranked dreams go to die.
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Big 12 Firepower: Texas Tech and Utah
If you like points, tune into the Red Raiders and the Utes. Texas Tech is averaging a ridiculous 64.5 points per game. Behren Morton has 11 touchdowns and has yet to turn the ball over.
On the other side, Utah’s Devon Dampier has been just as efficient. Rice-Eccles Stadium is one of the toughest environments in the country for a visiting quarterback, especially one who relies on timing and rhythm like Morton.
Utah is laying 3.5 points. Honestly? Take the over on 58.5. These two offenses are going to trade blows like heavyweights until someone finally blinks in the fourth quarter.
The Civil War and Other Rivalries
Oregon is a massive 33.5-point favorite against Oregon State. That feels disrespectful, doesn't it? The Ducks are 4-0 and trying to keep their CFP resume spotless before a massive trip to Penn State. Oregon State is struggling at 0-3, but rivalry games have a way of narrowing the gap. I’m not saying the Beavers win—they won't—but 34 points is a massive mountain to climb for a Ducks team that might already be looking ahead to Happy Valley.
Then you’ve got the Apple Cup: Washington vs. Washington State. The Huskies are 21-point favorites, but the Cougs always play this game like it’s the Super Bowl.
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Key Matchups and Odds to Watch
To make sense of the madness, let's look at where the smart money is moving.
- Michigan at Nebraska: This is a toss-up. Michigan is only a 1.5-point favorite on the road. Bryce Underwood is a freshman phenom, but he struggled in the hostile environment at Norman earlier this year. Nebraska’s defense is legit, and they'll be smelling blood in Lincoln.
- Florida at Miami: The Hurricanes are favored by 8.5. Carson Beck has been surgical, and Miami looks like the clear class of the ACC. Florida is still trying to find its identity under Billy Napier, and a loss here could start some very loud conversations about his job security.
- Missouri vs. South Carolina: Mizzou is laying 13.5. With Gamecocks QB LaNorris Sellers dealing with a head injury, South Carolina’s offense might be stuck in neutral. Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy has been a beast on the ground, and I expect him to carry the load here.
What Most People Get Wrong About Week 4
The biggest mistake fans make is overvaluing the blowouts from Weeks 1 through 3.
Beating a MAC team by 50 doesn't mean you can go into a hostile SEC or Big Ten stadium and do the same. Look at the injury reports. Florida is banged up at wide receiver. South Carolina might be without their starting signal-caller. These details matter more than the "power rankings" you see on TV.
Also, keep an eye on the "look ahead" factor. Teams like Oregon and Penn State have massive games looming next week. It is incredibly easy for a coach to say "focus on today," but it’s much harder for a 19-year-old athlete to ignore the hype of a Top 5 matchup next Saturday.
Actionable Strategy for Your Predictions
- Check the Trenches: Don't just look at the QBs. Look at the offensive line health. Michigan’s success depends entirely on whether their line can handle Nebraska’s front four.
- Fade the Public on Massive Spreads: If a team is favored by 35+, the backdoor cover is always open. Coaches will pull starters in the fourth quarter to prevent injuries, and that’s when the "bad" teams score garbage-time touchdowns to cover the spread.
- Home Field Matters (A Lot): In games where the spread is under 3, always lean toward the home team. The crowd noise in places like Bloomington or Lincoln is worth at least 3 to 4 points on its own.
The week 4 college football predictions landscape is shifting by the hour as more news comes out about player availability. Stay flexible. Don't fall in love with a "lock" on Tuesday that looks like a trap by Friday night.
Watch the weather in the Midwest for those Big Ten games. A rainy, windy day in Rutgers or Wisconsin changes the math entirely for teams that like to air it out. Stick to the fundamentals: turnovers, third-down conversion rates, and red-zone efficiency. That’s how you actually win the weekend.
Next Steps:
Keep a close eye on the Friday night injury reports, specifically regarding LaNorris Sellers at South Carolina and the Florida receiving corps. If Sellers is ruled out, the 13.5-point spread for Missouri might actually be too low. You should also monitor the line movement for the Michigan-Nebraska game; if it moves to a pick'em, the value shifts significantly toward the Huskers at home.