It is mid-January 2026, and if you're looking at the NFL standings right now, you're probably seeing a lot of chaos. The dust from the regular season has mostly settled, but honestly, looking back at the week 17 power rankings nfl reveals exactly where the pretenders turned into actual contenders. Most fans just look at the win-loss column. That’s a mistake.
The real story of the 2025-26 season isn't just that the Seattle Seahawks finished 14-3. It’s how they got there.
Everyone was ready to bury Sam Darnold. Again. But by the time the Week 17 slate wrapped up, he wasn't just a "bridge" quarterback; he was the engine of the Super Bowl favorite. If you missed the shift during the final weeks of December, you're missing why the sportsbooks are currently leaning so heavily toward the Pacific Northwest.
The Seahawks and the "Darnold Renaissance"
Heading into Week 17, the Seattle Seahawks vaulted to the No. 1 spot in almost every major ranking, including the influential lists from NFL.com and PFT. They earned it by taking down the Los Angeles Rams in a 38-37 thriller that basically functioned as a changing of the guard in the NFC West.
Seattle's defense, led by breakout stars like Nick Emmanwori and the veteran presence of Riq Woolen, has been stifling. But the wild sentence nobody expected to say in 2026 is this: Sam Darnold is playing like an MVP.
He’s throwing with a level of anticipation we haven't seen since his USC days. He’s navigating the pocket with a calmness that suggests he’s finally found a scheme that doesn't ask him to be a hero on every snap. In that Week 17 win against Carolina, he handled the pressure with a veteran poise that basically locked up the No. 1 seed and that coveted first-round bye.
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Why the AFC Hierarchy is a Total Mess
While the Seahawks were stabilizing the NFC, the AFC was—and still is—a complete disaster zone. Seriously.
The Denver Broncos' Identity Crisis
For months, the Denver Broncos looked like the team to beat. Bo Nix was finding "fourth-quarter magic" like it was a grocery item he could just pick up off the shelf. Then Week 16 and 17 happened.
The Jaguars came into Mile High and absolutely dismantled the Broncos' defense, putting up 34 points and exposing some serious speed issues in the secondary. Denver fell from the No. 1 spot in many week 17 power rankings nfl after that shocker. They did bounce back against a Mahomes-less Chiefs squad on Christmas, but the aura of invincibility is gone.
The Drake Maye Era in New England
If you aren't paying attention to what Jerod Mayo is building in Foxborough, you're failing the eye test. The Patriots finished the Week 17 window at 13-3.
Drake Maye is the real deal.
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He’s not just "good for a rookie" or "showing flashes." He is leading 4th-quarter comeback drives against elite defenses. His performance against the Ravens in late December—a 28-24 win where he threw for over 300 yards—was the moment the league realized the Patriots' rebuild didn't just work; it accelerated. They’ve locked up the AFC East, ending Buffalo’s five-year reign.
What Really Happened with the "Contenders"
A lot of people are still talking about the Buffalo Bills as a top-three team. I get it. Josh Allen is a freak of nature. But the Week 17 data tells a darker story.
The Bills' defense has been a "fire drill," as some analysts put it. They’ve been giving up massive chunks of yardage to mediocre offenses. While they’ve managed 11 wins for the sixth straight year, they are the definition of a "high floor, low ceiling" team right now. They squeaked by the Browns in a game they should have dominated.
Then you have the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Trevor Lawrence has quietly hit the best stretch of his career. The Jags entered the postseason conversation as the No. 3 team in many power rankings because they actually have a balanced roster. They aren't just relying on "hero ball." They went into Denver and bullied the best defense in the league. That matters way more than a lucky win against a bottom-tier team.
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The Mid-Tier Muddy Water
- Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams is exciting, but the Bears are inconsistent. They had a 0.5% win probability against Green Bay and somehow pulled it off. You can't rely on "bonkers" stats to win in the playoffs.
- Pittsburgh Steelers: It’s the end of an era. Mike Tomlin is likely moving on, and Aaron Rodgers—while better than previous options—is clearly at the end of the road. Their loss to the Browns in Week 17 was a massive red flag.
- Philadelphia Eagles: They won the NFC East, but nobody seems scared of them. They haven't beaten a truly elite team in over a month.
The Bottom Feeders and Future Hopes
It’s not all about the playoffs. The week 17 power rankings nfl also highlight the absolute disasters.
The Kansas City Chiefs are in a freefall. Losing Patrick Mahomes to injury was the final nail, but even before that, the roster felt thin. They’ve lost five in a row. It’s the kind of slide that leads to a total organizational reset.
Meanwhile, the New York Giants and New York Jets are essentially in a race to the bottom. The Giants have lost nine straight. There are serious concerns that they might "break" Jaxson Dart before he even gets a chance to develop.
On the bright side? The Tennessee Titans might have found something in Cam Ward. They’re winning games late in the season that they "should" lose, which is usually a sign of a team that’s bought into a new culture.
Actionable Insights for the Postseason
If you’re looking at these rankings to figure out where to put your energy (or your money) for the playoffs, keep these three things in mind:
- Look at the Trenches: The Patriots and Seahawks are winning because their lines are holding up despite injuries. The Bills are struggling because their defensive line can't get home without blitzing.
- Health is Everything: Keep an eye on the "Lamar Jackson Injury Watch" in Baltimore and Jordan Love's status in Green Bay. A team's power ranking is 80% tied to their QB's health right now.
- The Home Field Myth: Denver and Seattle have massive home-field advantages, but Jacksonville and Houston have proven they can win anywhere. Don't overvalue the "1" seed if the matchup is bad.
The regular season is over, but the lessons from the final weeks are just beginning to pay off. The Seahawks are the favorites for a reason, but in a year where "no team is great, only good," expect the unexpected.
Keep a close eye on the injury reports for the Divisional Round, specifically the status of Seattle's secondary. If Emmanwori and Woolen aren't at 100%, the 49ers' red-hot offense under Brock Purdy could create a massive upset in the NFC.