Week 15 is here. It’s the playoffs. Honestly, if you’re reading this, you’ve probably survived a season from hell. But the bracket doesn't care about your feelings, and neither does the weather forecast. This week isn't about who has the coolest name or who you drafted in the first round back in August. It’s about surviving a "Polar Vortex" and a medical report that looks like a casualty list from a war movie.
Patrick Mahomes is out with an ACL tear. That’s the big one. The Chiefs dynasty—at least for this fantasy season—is effectively over. If you were riding Mahomes, you're now looking at Gardner Minshew or maybe streaming someone like Drake Maye. It’s a brutal reality. But that’s the game.
The Frigid Truth About Your Quarterbacks
Weather matters now. We aren't in the cozy domes of September anymore. Most of the week 15 fantasy football rankings you’ll see online are ignoring the fact that it’s going to be 9 degrees in Cincinnati.
Lamar Jackson is heading into the coldest game of his entire career against the Bengals. While Lamar is usually a "set it and forget it" guy, you have to wonder how that ball feels in sub-zero wind chill. On the flip side, Joe Burrow has actually been weirdly good in the snow. He’s 2-0 when the temperature is under 20 degrees. If you have both, I’m actually leaning Burrow here, which feels like heresy, but the data doesn't lie.
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Josh Allen is basically a White Walker at this point. He thrives in the snow. He’s facing the Patriots in Foxborough where they’re expecting an inch or two of the white stuff. Start him. Don’t overthink it. His rushing floor becomes a ceiling in games like this because defenders can’t find their footing.
Running Backs: The Only Safe Haven?
With the passing games likely to struggle in the midwest freeze, workhorse backs are gold. Christian McCaffrey is the obvious #1 against a Titans defense that’s basically just a speed bump at this point. But let’s talk about the guys you might actually be debating.
The Must-Starts
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- Jahmyr Gibbs: He’s been on an absolute tear. Since Week 10, he’s averaging over 32 points per game. He’s the RB1 in a lot of models right now, even over CMC.
- De'Von Achane: He’s playing Monday night in Pittsburgh. It’ll be cold (16 degrees), but he’s the engine of that Miami offense now that Tyreek Hill is out for the season.
- James Cook: Buffalo is going to run the ball in the snow. Cook has been surprisingly consistent, and the Patriots' run defense has some massive holes.
The "Be Careful" Tier
Jonathan Taylor is a name that usually screams "start," but the Colts are a mess. With Daniel Jones out for the year and the offense sputtering, Taylor is losing those high-value red zone touches. He’s still an RB1, but he’s not the lock-for-25-points he used to be. Also, keep an eye on the Texans backfield. Woody Marks was looking great until he dinged his ankle. If he’s out, you’re looking at a committee that might just be a stay-away.
Wide Receiver Chaos and the "Heel" Factor
The injury report for receivers is a nightmare. Marvin Harrison Jr. is dealing with a heel issue and likely won't suit up. That makes Michael Wilson a very sneaky play against a Texans secondary that actually gives up a lot of yards at home.
Puka Nacua is basically the only thing keeping the Rams' passing game afloat with Davante Adams dealing with a nasty hamstring. Adams is "doubtful" at best. If you own Puka, you’re starting him against Detroit in what should be a high-scoring dome game. That’s the one game where you don't have to worry about the wind blowing the ball into the third row.
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the quietest superstar in the league right now. He’s leading the league in receiving yards heading into this week. The Seahawks are at home against the Colts, and while it might rain, JSN is the focal point. He’s a top-5 play this week. Period.
Tight Ends: It’s Kyle Pitts or Bust?
I can’t believe I’m saying this in 2025, but Kyle Pitts is a league-winner. He was the NFC Player of the Week recently and is finally being used like the unicorn we were promised. If you have him, you aren't looking at the waiver wire.
If you don’t have Pitts or Trey McBride (who is a beast in Arizona), you’re probably looking at Travis Kelce. With Mahomes out, Minshew is going to lean on Kelce like a crutch. Expect 10+ targets, even if they’re only for 5 yards a pop. In PPR, that’s a gold mine.
Real Talk: Strategy for the Frozen Tundra
If you are playing in one of these "Polar Vortex" games (Chicago, Cincinnati, Foxborough, Pittsburgh), you need to check the wind. Cold is fine. Snow is actually okay. Wind is the killer. If gusts are over 15-20 mph, your kickers and deep-threat WRs are toast. D.J. Moore in Chicago might have a tough day because Caleb Williams hasn't really played in this kind of "freeze-your-face-off" weather yet.
Next Steps for Your Roster
- Check the Saturday practice reports for Woody Marks and Tee Higgins. If Higgins clears protocol, he’s a risky but high-upside play.
- Move your players in the late games (Steelers vs. Dolphins) to your FLEX spot if they are questionable. It gives you room to pivot if they're a late scratch.
- Don't chase points from last week's "fluke" performers like Rashid Shaheed unless you're a massive underdog. Stick to the volume.