Fantasy football is a cruel mistress. You spend all week obsessing over whether to bench a star receiver for a red-hot waiver wire darling, only to have your matchup decided by a guy whose name you can barely pronounce—and he only touches the ball four times. Yeah, we're talking about kickers. If you’re looking at week 13 kicker rankings, you probably know that this is the point in the season where everything gets weird. It’s late November. The weather is turning into a frozen nightmare in half the country, and "projected points" start to look like total fiction.
Honestly, most people get the kicker position completely wrong. They just look at who has the most points on the season and click "start." That's how you lose. By Week 13, you have to be a bit of a meteorologist and a bit of a psychologist. You need to know which coaches are too "cowardly" to go for it on 4th and 2 and which domes are going to turn a boring game into a high-scoring track meet.
The Indoor Advantage: Domes are Your Best Friend
Look, late November in places like Buffalo or Pittsburgh is a crapshoot. You might get a crisp autumn afternoon, or you might get a lake-effect blizzard that makes a 30-yard field goal look like a miracle. This is why my week 13 kicker rankings always lean heavily toward the guys playing indoors.
Take Brandon Aubrey. The Dallas Cowboys are hosting the Kansas City Chiefs at AT&T Stadium. It’s a massive game, high stakes, and most importantly, it's under a roof. Aubrey has been a monster all season, and you don’t have to worry about a 20-mph gust pushing his 50-yarder wide right. He’s basically the gold standard right now.
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Then you have Ka’imi Fairbairn. The Texans are traveling to Indianapolis to play the Colts. That’s another dome game. Fairbairn has been incredibly consistent, and the Texans' offense has this weird habit of moving the ball effortlessly until they hit the 20-yard line, then they just... stall. That is exactly what you want. You want an offense that is good enough to get close but bad enough to fail at the end. It's the "Goldilocks Zone" for kickers.
Top Tier Starts (The "Don't Overthink It" Crew)
- Brandon Aubrey (DAL) vs. KC: He’s the best in the business. High-scoring game, zero wind.
- Jason Myers (SEA) vs. MIN: He’s quietly been a top-scoring kicker this year and Seattle's offense provides plenty of opportunities.
- Ka’imi Fairbairn (HOU) @ IND: Indoors, reliable, and part of an offense that loves settling for three.
- Cameron Dicker (LAC) vs. LV: "Dicker the Kicker" is playing at home in a friendly environment against a Raiders defense that gives up a lot of yardage.
Why Some "Big Names" are Huge Risks This Week
You’ve probably got Justin Tucker on your radar because, well, he’s Justin Tucker. But have you looked at the Ravens' game lately? They’re playing the Bengals on Thanksgiving night. Baltimore is cold in late November. More importantly, the Ravens offense has been so efficient at scoring touchdowns that Tucker sometimes ends up with four extra points and zero field goals. That’s a 4-point night. That'll lose you a matchup.
Then there's the Pittsburgh-Buffalo game. Chris Boswell and Matt Prater (who’s been kicking for the Bills since their injury issues) are great talents. But that game is in Pittsburgh. If the wind starts whipping off the Monongahela River, those long-range attempts go out the window. If you have better options in a dome, take them.
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The Sleepers Nobody is Talking About
If you're scouring the waiver wire, look at Andy Borregales in New England. I know, the Patriots aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut. But they’re playing the Giants at home on Monday night. The Giants' defense is bend-but-don't-break, which is the perfect recipe for a kicker to rack up three or four short field goals.
Also, keep an eye on Cam Little for the Jaguars. They’re playing the Titans. Tennessee's defense has been surprisingly stingy in the red zone but they let teams march down the field. Little has a massive leg—we saw him hit a 70-yarder in the preseason—and Doug Pederson isn't afraid to let him rip it from 55+.
Avoid These Traps
- Jake Moody (WAS) vs. DEN: The Commanders offense is struggling with injuries, and Denver's defense is legit. Not enough scoring chances here.
- Younghoe Koo (NYG) @ NE: Playing in Foxborough in the cold is never fun, and the Giants offense is a mess.
- Ryan Fitzgerald (CAR) vs. LAR: The Panthers' offensive floor is just too low to trust a kicker here.
Weather and Turf: The Silent Kicker Killers
By Week 13, you need to check the forecast on Sunday morning. A "light rain" might not seem like a big deal for a running back, but for a kicker, it means a slippery plant foot and a heavy ball.
If you see winds projected over 15 mph, get out. Seriously. Just swap your kicker for anyone in a dome. It doesn't matter if the replacement is "ranked" lower. A mediocre kicker in a dome will outscore a great kicker in a windstorm 9 times out of 10.
The turf matters too. Some of these older grass fields in late November turn into mud pits. It’s hard to get a clean strike when you’re worried about your foot sliding four inches as you swing. That’s another reason to love the fast tracks in Dallas, Indy, and Detroit.
Final Actionable Strategy for Week 13
Stop chasing past performance. Week 13 kicker rankings are about the future—specifically, the next three hours of game time.
First, look at the Vegas over/under totals. You want a game where the total is 48 or higher. That means points are expected. Second, check the "Red Zone Efficiency" stats. You want a kicker whose team ranks in the bottom half of the league in TD percentage inside the 20.
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If you have a kicker playing in an outdoor stadium in the North or Midwest, go to your league’s free agency pool right now. Look for Andy Borregales, Cam Little, or even Jake Bates if they’re available. Prioritize the guys in domes. It’s the boring move, but it’s the move that wins championships when the weather starts to turn.
Check your lineups one last time before the Thanksgiving games kick off on Thursday. If you wait until Sunday morning to fix your kicker situation, the best dome options will already be gone.