Week 13 is basically the "moving day" of the fantasy football calendar. Some of you are sweating out a win just to scrape into the postseason, while others are trying to lock up a first-round bye. Honestly, the pressure makes people do weird things. I’ve seen managers bench legitimate stars because of a "bad feeling" or a slightly cold weather report in November.
Don't be that person.
This week is unique because there are zero teams on bye. For the first time in a month, you actually have your full roster available. It’s a luxury, but it also creates a massive headache. When everyone is healthy, who do you actually trust? Between the triple-header on Thanksgiving and the Black Friday game in Philly, the decisions start early and they don't stop until Monday night in Foxborough.
Quarterbacks: The Rookie vs. The Vet
Start: Bo Nix (Broncos at Commanders)
I know, it sounds a little crazy to lean on a rookie when your season is on the line. But Bo Nix has a floor that most "safe" veterans would kill for right now. He's facing a Washington defense that is currently hemorrhaging fantasy points to quarterbacks—sitting in the top five for most points allowed to the position.
Washington’s pass rush is almost non-existent since they traded away their primary disruptors, and they struggle specifically with QBs who can extend plays. Nix has shown he isn't afraid to tuck it and run, which is basically a cheat code in fantasy. If he gives you 40 rushing yards and a couple of scores through the air, he’s a top-10 play.
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Sit: Daniel Jones (Colts vs. Texans)
The "Danny Dimes" resurgence in Indianapolis has been a fun story, but this is the week it likely hits a wall. The Houston Texans are currently the stingiest defense in the league against fantasy quarterbacks. They just held Josh Allen to single digits. Let that sink in.
Jones is still dealing with the lingering effects of a fractured fibula, which has noticeably sapped his mobility. If he can't run, he’s just a stationary target for Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. You’ve probably got better options on your bench this week.
Running Backs: Trusting the Volume
Start: Travis Etienne Jr. (Jaguars at Titans)
People are worried about Bhayshul Tuten stealing touches. I get it. The rookie is explosive. But if you look at the actual usage, Etienne is still the clear alpha in Jacksonville. He logged a 65% snap share last week—his highest since the start of September.
The Titans are a "funnel" defense. They are tough against the run but so bad against the pass that teams just throw over them. However, Etienne’s value comes from his 65% target share among Jaguars RBs. Even if the ground game is tough sledding, Trevor Lawrence is going to check it down to him six or seven times. In PPR leagues, he’s a must-start.
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Sit: Jerome Ford (Browns vs. 49ers)
Ford is "questionable" with a hamstring issue, but even if he suits up, stay away. The 49ers defense is a nightmare for running backs who rely on zone-blocking schemes. Cleveland's offensive line is also beat up, and if the Browns fall behind early—which they likely will—Ford’s volume will evaporate in favor of passing-down backs.
Wide Receivers: Matchups Matter
Start: Khalil Shakir (Bills at Steelers)
The Steelers have a reputation for being a "scary" defense, but they actually struggle quite a bit against slot receivers. Khalil Shakir is Josh Allen’s security blanket. With the wind potentially picking up at Acrisure Stadium, expect a lot of short, quick strikes to Shakir. He’s the kind of player who can turn a 5-yard slant into a 20-yard gain, and his catch rate is bordering on historic levels this season.
Sit: Chris Olave (Saints at Dolphins)
This one hurts because Olave is so talented. But he’s dealing with a back injury and is listed as questionable. More importantly, the Saints' offense has been stagnant. Facing a Dolphins secondary that has found its rhythm, Olave might see a lot of Jalen Ramsey. When you combine a back injury with elite coverage and a struggling QB, the floor is dangerously low.
The Thanksgiving and Black Friday Factor
You have to be careful with these early games. There is a psychological urge to "have skin in the game" while you're eating turkey, but don't force it.
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- Lions vs. Packers: Amon-Ra St. Brown is "week-to-week" with an ankle sprain. If he’s out, Jameson Williams becomes a high-ceiling start, but be prepared for a lower floor.
- Chiefs vs. Cowboys: Patrick Mahomes is a start, obviously, but keep an eye on his tackles. Both starters for KC went down on Thanksgiving. If the line is a sieve, Mahomes might be running for his life.
- Bears vs. Eagles: This is the Black Friday game. The weather in Philly is looking breezy with gusts up to 30 mph. This is a Saquon Barkley game. If you have Eagles receivers, lower your expectations for the deep ball.
Tight Ends: The Wasteland
If you don't have Trey McBride or Travis Kelce, you're basically guessing. However, Tyler Warren for the Colts has become a legitimate target monster. He’s essentially a wide receiver with a TE designation. Even in a tough matchup against Houston, his volume makes him better than almost anyone on the waiver wire.
Conversely, be careful with Dalton Kincaid. He’s been limited in practice with a knee issue. If he’s not 100%, the Bills will likely use him as a decoy or limit his snaps in favor of Dawson Knox.
Actionable Strategy for Week 13
- Check the Weather Early: Sunday games in Cleveland and Pittsburgh are notorious for late-breaking wind reports. Wind over 15 mph is the only weather metric that consistently kills passing production.
- Monitor the Saturday Activations: With no teams on bye, teams will be aggressive with the "Inactive" list. If your starter is a game-time decision for a 4:25 PM ET game, make sure you have a backup from the Sunday Night or Monday Night games.
- Don't Chase Last Week's Points: Just because the Steelers' defense looked vulnerable against the Texans doesn't mean they'll crumble against Buffalo. Play the season-long trends, not the one-week outliers.
Maximize your points by prioritizing players with high "opportunity share." In a week where everyone is playing, the players who stay on the field for 80% of snaps are your best bets to survive the chaos of Week 13.
Verify your final lineup at least 30 minutes before the 1:00 PM ET kickoff on Sunday to account for any surprise scratches or late-breaking injury updates from the morning reports.