We’ve officially hit that point in the season where everyone thinks they know who’s heading to Santa Clara for Super Bowl LX. The mid-November chill is setting in, and honestly, the Week 11 power rankings NFL landscape is a total mess. If you look at the standings, you see a bunch of 8-2 teams like the Patriots, Broncos, and Colts, but the "eye test" is telling a completely different story this year.
It’s weird. We have the three-time reigning champion Chiefs sitting at 5-4 and currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Meanwhile, the New England Patriots—yes, those Patriots—are riding a seven-game win streak with Drake Maye looking like a legitimate MVP candidate. If you told me that in August, I’d have asked to see your medical records.
The Top Tier Reality Check
Most people want to put the Indianapolis Colts or the Denver Broncos at the very top because they have the best records at 8-2. I’m not buying it. The Broncos just escaped a 10-7 slog against a two-win Raiders team where they managed a pathetic 220 yards of offense. You can’t win in January playing like that.
The Los Angeles Rams are the real "No. 1" team right now. They just dismantled the 49ers 42-26, and Matthew Stafford is playing out of his mind. Sean McVay has started using these heavy 13-personnel packages (three tight ends) that are just breaking defensive coordinators' brains. It’s basically impossible to match their size and then still deal with Davante Adams on the outside.
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Then you have the Seattle Seahawks. They’re also 7-2 and just dropped 44 points on Arizona. What Mike Macdonald has done with that defense is incredible. They held a 35-0 lead before some people even got to their seats. The Week 11 showdown between the Rams and Seahawks is effectively for the crown of the NFC.
Why the AFC Leaders Feel Fraudulent
- New England Patriots (8-2): Look, I love what Mike Vrabel is doing. Burning the clock at the end of the first half against Tampa to "double dip" was a Madden-level genius move. But their schedule has been soft. Wins over the Bills and Bucs are nice, but let's see them do it against a healthy heavyweight.
- Denver Broncos (8-2): Their defense is elite, sure. But the offense is stuck in 1994.
- Indianapolis Colts (8-2): Jonathan Taylor is the only reason this team is winning. He's carrying them—literally—but with DeForest Buckner on IR and Sauce Gardner still learning the scheme, that defense is vulnerable.
The "Good But Fragile" Group
The Philadelphia Eagles are 7-2 and just won an "ugly-beautiful" 10-7 game against the Packers at Lambeau. It wasn't pretty. Saquon Barkley is doing Saquon things, and the defense looks championship-caliber, but Nick Sirianni seems determined to make every game a heart attack for Philly fans. They face the Lions in Week 11, which should be a track meet.
Speaking of the Detroit Lions, they're back. Dan Campbell took over the play-calling duties and they immediately hung 44 points on the Commanders. Jahmyr Gibbs went for 142 yards and two scores. When this team runs the ball like that, they’re the best team in the league. Period.
The Fall of the Titans (and Bills)
What happened to Buffalo? They just got blown out 30-13 by a Miami team that had two wins. Only 13 points? Yuck. Josh Allen looks like he’s trying to do too much again, and the defense is missing Jaelan Phillips (who they traded) more than they’d like to admit.
- Rams: The most complete offense in football.
- Seahawks: Best defense in the NFC.
- Eagles: Gritty, but they find ways to win.
- Colts: Riding JT into the sunset.
- Lions: The "scariest" team to play right now.
Surprises and Disasters Heading Into Week 11
The Chicago Bears are 6-3. Let that sink in. They came back from 10 down to beat the Giants, partly because Jaxson Dart went down with a concussion, but mostly because they’re playing "tough and smart." They aren’t Super Bowl contenders yet, but they’re definitely a "spoiler" team in the North.
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The Pittsburgh Steelers are the opposite. The Aaron Rodgers experiment is officially hitting the "danger" zone. He went 16-of-31 with two picks in a loss to the Chargers. At 41 years old, he looks like he's finally playing his age. The Steelers have lost three of their last four, and the Ravens are breathing down their necks in the AFC North.
Key Matchups to Watch
The Week 11 slate is actually insane. We have Lions at Eagles on Sunday night, which is a Top-5 power rankings clash. Then you’ve got Seahawks at Rams, which is basically for the lead in the NFC West. And don’t sleep on Chiefs at Broncos. If Patrick Mahomes loses this one, the Chiefs might actually miss the playoffs for the first time in forever.
Actionable Insights for Week 11
If you're looking at these rankings to make sense of the playoff picture, keep these three things in mind:
- Watch the Trenches in Detroit vs. Philly: The Eagles' defensive line is the only unit that can truly slow down the Lions' run game. If Detroit gets over 120 yards on the ground, Philly loses.
- Fade the "Record" Teams: Don't be fooled by Denver or New England's 8-2 records. Look at their EPA (Expected Points Added) per play. Denver is middle-of-the-pack, which suggests a regression is coming.
- Stafford for MVP: If the Rams beat the Seahawks this weekend, Matthew Stafford becomes the betting favorite for MVP. His efficiency in the red zone right now is the best we've seen since 2021.
The NFC is clearly better than the AFC this year. While the AFC is top-heavy with teams that have great records but questionable offenses, the NFC has four or five teams that could legitimately win it all. Week 11 is where the pretenders usually fall off the cliff. Buckle up.