Week 1 is basically a liar. Honestly, if you spent the entire summer staring at spreadsheets and training camp depth charts, you've probably talked yourself into some "locks" that are about to fall apart. Vegas knows this. They rely on it. They set the lines for the first week of the season based on who we think teams are, but the reality of the 2025 season opener proved—once again—that the betting public almost always overestimates the offense.
Everyone expects fireworks. Nobody gets them.
Last season, the week 1 nfl vegas odds were defined by a single, crushing trend: the Under. If you bet on every single game to be a low-scoring slog, you would have been up so much money it’s almost stupid. Out of the first 12 games in the Sunday window, 11 of them went Under. That’s not a fluke; it's a structural reality of modern football where starters barely play in the preseason and timing is non-existent in September.
Why the Lines Usually Lie in September
The biggest mistake people make with week one odds is trusting the "continuity" narrative. We look at a team like the Cincinnati Bengals, see Joe Burrow, see Ja'Marr Chase, and assume they’ll hang 30 points on a divisional rival like the Cleveland Browns. In 2025, the Bengals were favored by 5.5 or 6 points depending on when you grabbed the line. They won, sure, but the score was 17-16. It was ugly. It was slow. And the "total" of 47.5 was never even remotely in danger.
Vegas sets these totals high because fans want to bet the Over. Nobody goes to a sports bar to cheer for a punt. But in Week 1, the defense is almost always ahead of the offense.
✨ Don't miss: Simona Halep and the Reality of Tennis Player Breast Reduction
Look at the New York Giants and Washington Commanders. The Commanders were sitting as 6-point favorites with a total of around 45.5. What happened? A 21-6 defensive grind. Or the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Rams, where the total was 43.5 and they combined for a measly 23 points. If you aren't looking at the "Under" as your default position for Week 1, you're basically donating to the sportsbooks.
The Home Field Illusion
Another trap is overvaluing the home-field advantage in the season opener. Traditionally, Vegas gives about 1.5 to 2 points for playing at home. But in Week 1, that often evaporates because of the pure adrenaline and "newness" of the season.
Take the Minnesota Vikings traveling to Chicago. They were 1.5-point road favorites on Monday Night Football. Usually, a road favorite in a divisional game is a red flag, but the Vikings pulled it off 27-24. On the flip side, the Green Bay Packers were 2.5-point favorites at home against the Lions and absolutely dominated, winning 27-13. The point is, there's no "standard" rule that applies to every stadium in September. You have to look at the specific matchup, especially at the quarterback position.
Rookie QBs and the Betting Tax
In 2025, everyone was watching Cam Ward and the Tennessee Titans. They went into Denver as 8.5-point underdogs. That is a massive spread for Week 1. Usually, you see lines between 1 and 3 points because oddsmakers aren't sure how good anyone is yet.
🔗 Read more: NFL Pick 'em Predictions: Why You're Probably Overthinking the Divisional Round
But when a rookie quarterback is involved, Vegas adds a "tax." They know the kid is going to struggle with the speed of a regular-season defense. Bo Nix and the Broncos took advantage of that, winning 20-12. If you see a spread larger than 7 points in Week 1, it’s almost always a "stay away" or a bet on the underdog to cover a messy, low-scoring game.
Key Betting Stats from 2025 Opening Weekend
| Matchup | Closing Spread | Final Score | Result (ATS) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys at Eagles | Eagles -7.5 | 24-20 | Cowboys +7.5 |
| Chiefs at Chargers | Chiefs -3 | 21-27 | Chargers +3 |
| Steelers at Jets | Steelers -3 | 34-32 | Steelers -3 (Push) |
| Dolphins at Colts | Colts -1.5 | 8-33 | Colts -1.5 |
| 49ers at Seahawks | 49ers -2.5 | 17-13 | 49ers -2.5 |
Notice something about those scores? They're weird. They don't follow the "clean" logic of the preseason. The Indianapolis Colts were only 1.5-point favorites against Miami and ended up winning by 25 points. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles, coming off a Super Bowl-caliber year, couldn't cover a 7.5-point spread against a Dallas team everyone thought was rebuilding.
The week 1 nfl vegas odds are often built on last year's reputation. But last year is dead.
What Really Happened in Brazil?
The NFL’s international growth adds a layer of chaos to the odds that most casual bettors ignore. The Kansas City Chiefs played the Los Angeles Chargers in São Paulo, Brazil. The Chiefs were 3-point favorites. Now, think about the travel, the field conditions, and the time change. Those variables aren't captured in a standard power ranking. The Chargers pulled the upset, winning 27-21. Traveling 5,000 miles is a hell of a lot different than a bus ride to a neighboring state, and the odds rarely reflect how much that drains a team.
💡 You might also like: Why the Marlins Won World Series Titles Twice and Then Disappeared
How to Handle Week 1 Moving Forward
If you want to actually win money instead of just "having action," you need to stop betting on teams and start betting on situations.
- Avoid the "Public" Teams: The Cowboys, Chiefs, and Packers will always have inflated lines because everyone wants to bet on them. You're usually paying a 1-to-2 point "fandom tax" just to take their side.
- The "Under" is King: Until NFL teams start playing their starters more in the preseason, offenses will be rusty in September. Look for totals over 47 and seriously consider the Under.
- Divisional Road Underdogs: This is a classic "sharp" bet. When a team knows its opponent as well as the Seahawks know the 49ers, the games tend to stay close regardless of the talent gap. The 49ers were 2.5-point favorites and only won by 4. It was a dogfight.
- The Rookie Fade: Betting against rookie quarterbacks in their first-ever start is one of the most consistent ways to build a bankroll. It doesn't matter how high they were drafted; the jump from Saturday to Sunday is a mountain.
The week 1 nfl vegas odds aren't a prediction of what will happen. They are a prediction of what the public thinks will happen. If you can spot where the hype is outweighing the reality, you’ll find the value.
Start by looking at the defensive line versus offensive line matchups. In Week 1, a dominant pass rush (like the Vikings' front) can completely wreck a game plan because the offensive communication isn't quite there yet. That’s how you get a "comfortable" win for a road favorite like Minnesota in a loud environment like Soldier Field. Don't get blinded by the names on the jerseys; look at the rust.
Next Steps for Betting Week 1:
Review the injury reports specifically for offensive linemen, as one missing starter can swing a 3-point spread. Track the "line movement" starting from the Tuesday before kickoff; if a line moves from -2.5 to -3.5, you’ve missed the value and should probably look elsewhere. Finally, focus your research on teams with new defensive coordinators, as these units often confuse opposing quarterbacks who are relying on last year's film.