Thursday, January 22, 2026, is shaping up to be one of those classic "transition days" in New York. You know the type. It’s that awkward middle ground where the deep freeze of earlier in the week starts to lose its grip, but the atmosphere isn’t quite ready to play nice yet. If you're commuting or just trying to grab a coffee without sliding down a subway entrance, there's a specific window you need to watch.
Honestly, the weather Thursday New York is basically a story of rising temperatures meeting lingering moisture. We are looking at a high of 38°F and a low of 23°F. On paper, that sounds like a slight reprieve from the mid-winter bite, but the complexity lies in the "frozen mix" potential.
The High-Stakes Temperature Swing
Early Thursday morning will likely feel like a continuation of the previous night's chill. We're starting deep in the 20s. However, as the day progresses, a southwesterly wind at about 10 mph will start nudging that mercury upward.
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By the afternoon, we hit that 38°F mark. In New York, that’s the danger zone. It’s warm enough for things to melt but cold enough for the ground—which has been frozen solid for weeks—to keep a layer of ice active. National Weather Service data suggests a 30% chance of a frozen mix during the day. This isn't a massive blizzard, but as any New Yorker knows, a thin glaze of ice is often more annoying than six inches of snow.
Breaking Down the Hourly Reality
If you're looking at the hour-by-hour breakdown, here is how Thursday is actually going to feel:
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- Morning (6 AM – 10 AM): Cold. Very cold. Expect temperatures to hover around 25°F to 28°F. The sky will be mostly overcast. If there’s any leftover moisture from Wednesday night, the sidewalks will be "black ice" territory.
- Midday (11 AM – 3 PM): This is the "mix" window. With the high reaching 37°F or 38°F, we might see a combination of light snow, sleet, or just a cold drizzle. Humidity is expected to sit around 59%, making it feel damp and "heavier" than a dry cold.
- Evening (4 PM – 8 PM): The sun sets around 5:01 PM. Once that happens, the temperature will start its descent back toward the overnight low of 23°F. Any slush created during the day is going to refreeze fast.
Why "38 Degrees" is the Most Deceptive Number
Most people see 38 degrees and think, "Okay, no heavy coat today." Bad move.
The UV index is a flat 2, meaning there’s zero warmth coming from the sun, even if we get those "partly sunny" breaks promised by some models. Because the wind is coming from the southwest, it’s bringing in moisture. That humidity makes the air "bite" more than a dry 30-degree day would.
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New York's microclimates also play a huge role here. If you’re in Midtown, the "canyon effect" between skyscrapers can make a 10 mph wind feel like 20 mph. Conversely, if you're out in Queens or Brooklyn, you might get a bit more of that "partly sunny" break, but you’ll also feel the dampness from the water more acutely.
Survival Steps for Thursday
Don't let the "30% chance" fool you into complacency. Here is what you actually need to do to handle the weather Thursday New York without losing your mind:
- Footwear is everything. Forget the stylish sneakers. You need something with a rubber lug sole. The transition from 38°F (melting) to 23°F (freezing) creates a literal skating rink on the sidewalk.
- Layer for the humidity. A moisture-wicking base layer is better than one massive parka. You’ll want to be able to vent when you’re underground in the 80-degree subway stations and bundle up when you hit the 30-degree street level.
- Check the MTA apps around 3 PM. That’s when we’ll know if the "mix" is causing signal issues or track slips. Northbound trains often face more delays during these icing events.
- Watch the "RealFeel." While the thermometer says 38°F, the wind chill will likely keep it feeling closer to 31°F for most of the afternoon.
Looking ahead, the freeze tightens back up on Friday with a high of only 29°F, so anything that doesn't get cleared on Thursday evening is going to be a permanent fixture on your block for the rest of the week. Basically, Thursday is your one chance to clear the slush before it turns into concrete.