Honestly, Stafford weather in January is a bit of a psychological game. One minute you’re walking the dog along the Rappahannock in a light fleece because it’s 53°F, and the next, you’re scrambling to find the ice scraper because an Arctic front decided to hop the Blue Ridge Mountains overnight. It’s inconsistent. It’s moody. And if you’re looking at the weather Stafford VA 10 day forecast right now, you’re probably seeing a mirror of that exact chaos.
We are currently sitting in a strange transition period. Today, Tuesday, January 13, 2026, started out relatively mild with highs hitting the mid-50s, but don't let that fool you into thinking winter is packing its bags early.
The reality of the next ten days involves a sharp "Arctic revenge" that meteorologists are watching closely. While the current 51°F feels comfortable, the humidity is low at 31%, and those southwest winds are essentially the deep breath before the plunge.
The Immediate Shift: Rain, Snow, and the Big Drop
Tomorrow, Wednesday, January 14, is where the transition starts. We’ll see the clouds thicken up significantly. Highs will still hover around 52°F to 55°F during the day—kinda nice, right?—but the evening brings a 25% to 40% chance of rain that could easily pivot into snow showers as the temperature bottoms out at 29°F or 32°F.
This is classic Stafford. The "wobble" between rain and snow depends entirely on how fast that cold air chases the moisture out of the region.
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Thursday, January 15, is going to be a reality check. We are looking at a high of only 34°F. That is a nearly 20-degree drop in 24 hours. The winds will kick up from the northwest at about 15 mph, making the "feels like" temperature stay in the teens for most of the morning. If you have outdoor plans, cancel them or dress like you’re heading to the tundra.
A Look at the 10-Day Horizon
When we look further out into the weekend and next week, the pattern settles into a persistent "deep freeze" mode.
Friday, January 16, stays cold with a high of 38°F and a low of 20°F. By Saturday, there's a slight bump to 46°F, but that comes with a 20% chance of snow showers in the evening. Sunday through Tuesday (January 18–20) looks like a stretch of partly sunny but biting weather, with highs struggling to break 35°F and overnight lows dipping as low as 17°F.
Basically, the back half of this 10-day forecast is dominated by Canadian air.
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Most people get wrong the idea that Stafford is "south" enough to avoid real winter. We aren't. We sit in that awkward zone where the I-95 corridor acts as a dividing line for rain/snow lines. A storm tracking just 20 miles to the east can mean the difference between a cold drizzle and a six-inch snow event that shuts down Garrisonville Road for two days.
Local Factors That Mess With Your App's Forecast
If you live near the water in Aquia or Widewater, your experience is going to be slightly different than someone up in Hartwood. The Potomac and Rappahannock rivers provide a tiny bit of a thermal buffer, often keeping those immediate coastal areas just a degree or two warmer—which, in January, is the difference between slush and black ice.
Also, the "breezy" tag you see on your weather app? In Stafford, that usually means wind funneling through the river valleys.
What to Actually Do With This Information
Forget the "average" high of 42°F you see in historical charts. It doesn't exist this week. You need to prepare for volatility.
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First, check your tire pressure. This 20-degree swing coming on Thursday will trigger every "low pressure" sensor in the county. It's not a leak; it's just physics. Second, if you’re planning on commuting up to DC or down to Richmond on Wednesday night or Thursday morning, give yourself an extra 30 minutes. Even if we don't get a "snowstorm," the flash freeze of rain on the roads as the temperature hits 29°F is a notorious recipe for accidents on the 95.
Check your outdoor spigots too. We've had a few mild days, but with lows hitting 17°F by next Tuesday, any hose still attached is a burst pipe waiting to happen.
Stay weather-aware as we get closer to Saturday. Those "20% snow shower" predictions have a habit of trending upward once the moisture from the south starts interacting with this incoming Arctic air. Winter in Virginia is never a straight line; it's a zigzag, and we are currently on the downward zag.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Winterize your vehicle tonight: Ensure your windshield washer fluid is rated for sub-freezing temps before the Wednesday night transition.
- Monitor the Wednesday "Rain-to-Snow" timing: If the cold front moves faster than predicted, the Wednesday evening commute could become slick very quickly.
- Plan for a "Hard Freeze" early next week: Protect sensitive plants and check on neighbors, especially as we hit that 17°F low on Tuesday night.