Richmond weather is a mood. One day you’re walking down Cary Street in a light sweater, and the next, you’re digging for that heavy parka you swore you wouldn't need this year. If you’ve lived here long enough, you know the "Richmond Shuffle"—that awkward dance of switching your HVAC from heat to AC in the same 24-hour cycle.
Right now, looking at the weather Richmond VA extended forecast, we’re staring down a classic Virginia winter mix. It's mid-January 2026. The ground is cold, the sky is that specific shade of "RVA gray," and everyone is asking the same thing: are we actually going to get a real snow, or just more of that annoying freezing rain?
The Current Outlook: Mid-January Reality Check
Let’s talk numbers, but keep it real. Today, Wednesday, January 14, we’re seeing a high of 52°F. Sounds decent, right? Don't let it fool you. By tonight, we’re dropping to 35°F with a 20% chance of snow. It’s that teeter-totter point where the James River looks beautiful but feels like an ice bath.
Tomorrow, Thursday, the bottom falls out. We’re looking at a high of only 34°F. That is a massive 18-degree drop in 24 hours. If you have plants outside that aren't hardened off, or if you haven't dripped your pipes in an older Fan District rowhouse, tonight is the night to handle that.
The wind is also picking up. We're expecting 15 mph gusts from the west. In Richmond, that wind tunnels through the downtown buildings and makes 34°F feel like 20°F. Honestly, it’s going to be brutal for the morning commute.
The 10-Day Rollercoaster
Looking further out in the weather Richmond VA extended forecast, the pattern stays chaotic.
- Friday, Jan 16: Sunny but cold. High of 40°F, Low of 24°F. Perfect for a brisk walk in Byrd Park, but keep the gloves on.
- Saturday, Jan 17: Back up to 51°F. Rain is likely (35% chance). It’s going to be soggy.
- Sunday, Jan 18: The "Snow Potential" day. High of 36°F with a 25% chance of actual flakes.
- Early Next Week: Bitterly cold. Tuesday, Jan 20, is forecasting a high of only 30°F and a low of 18°F.
This isn't just "chilly." This is the kind of cold that tests your car battery. If your car struggled to start this morning, it definitely won't like next Tuesday.
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Why Richmond Weather is So Hard to Predict
Most people think meteorologists are just guessing. They aren't. Richmond sits in a very weird geographical spot. We’re in the "Fall Line" transition zone. To our west, the Piedmont rises toward the Blue Ridge Mountains. To our east, the Tidewater region flattens out toward the Atlantic.
This means we often get "cold air damming." Cold air gets trapped against the mountains, while warm, moist air flows in from the coast. You end up with a "wedge." This is why Richmond is famous for sleet and freezing rain rather than the "fluffy" snow they get in Charlottesville or the rain they get in Virginia Beach. We are almost always right on the freezing line.
The La Niña Factor in 2026
This winter is being influenced by a weak La Niña. According to the National Weather Service, La Niña typically means a track that brings more storms through the Ohio Valley. For us in Central Virginia, that often results in a "hit or miss" winter.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac called for a "mostly mild but pockets of wild" season for the Atlantic Corridor. So far, they’re hitting the nail on the head. We’ve had those mild 50-degree stretches followed by these sharp, sub-freezing stabs.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Forecast
People see a "20% chance of snow" on their phone and ignore it. In Richmond, 20% can mean a dusting that does nothing, or it can mean the exact moment a moisture band hits a cold pocket over Chesterfield and turns the afternoon commute into a parking lot.
Remember 2022? A storm that was supposed to be "minor" shut down I-95 for 24 hours. Richmonders have collective trauma from that.
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Another misconception is the "extended" part of the forecast. Anything past 7 days is basically a trend, not a promise. If you see snow predicted for 12 days from now, don't go buy all the milk and bread yet. Wait until the 72-hour window. That’s when the high-resolution models like the HRRR and the NAM start to agree on where the moisture is actually going.
Living With the Richmond Extended Forecast
Since we know the next two weeks are going to be a mix of freezing temps and soggy rain, you've gotta be prepared. It sounds cliché, but layers are your best friend here.
If you're heading to a VCU game or grabbing dinner in Scott’s Addition, remember that the temp can drop 10 degrees the second the sun goes down. January sunsets are early—around 5:15 PM right now. Once that sun disappears, the humidity makes the cold feel "heavy."
Home and Car Prep for the 18°F Dip
When the forecast shows 18°F like it does for next Tuesday night, you need to act.
- Check your tires. Cold air makes tire pressure drop. That "low pressure" light isn't a suggestion; it's physics.
- External Faucets. Hopefully, you’ve already disconnected your hoses. If not, do it today.
- The "Wiper Up" Trick. If freezing rain is in the forecast (like Saturday night), pull your windshield wipers up. It saves the rubber and makes de-icing much faster.
Looking Ahead: Is Winter Almost Over?
Hardly. Statistically, Richmond’s snowiest month is February. While the weather Richmond VA extended forecast shows a slight "thaw" toward the end of January with highs reaching the 50s again by Jan 23, don't get comfortable.
Historically, we can see snow well into March. The average last frost date for Richmond isn't until mid-April. We’ve got a long way to go.
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The "Atlantic Corridor" transition often brings a late-winter surprise. If the jet stream dips just right in February, we could see a classic Nor'easter. But for now, focus on the immediate cold. The plunge from 52°F today to 34°F tomorrow is the biggest shock to the system you'll face this week.
Actionable Steps for the Next 48 Hours
Don't just read the forecast; use it.
First, check your antifreeze levels today while it's still 52°F and comfortable to pop the hood. Second, if you have an irrigation system that hasn't been fully winterized, at least make sure the backflow preventer is covered before Tuesday’s 18°F low.
Finally, keep an eye on the Saturday night/Sunday morning transition. That 35% chance of rain moving into a 25% chance of snow is the classic "black ice" recipe for Richmond roads. Bridge overpasses on I-64 and I-95 will freeze long before the actual road surface does. Give yourself an extra 15 minutes if you're heading out Sunday morning.
Stay warm, keep your de-icer handy, and remember: if you don't like the weather in Richmond right now, just wait five minutes. It’ll change.