Living in the 54154 ZIP code means you develop a certain level of skepticism toward the evening news. You've probably noticed it. The TV meteorologists in Green Bay or Appleton might predict a light dusting, but by the time the systems track up toward the Oconto River, things change. Basically, weather Oconto Falls WI acts like its own little microclimate, caught between the influence of the bay and the vast Northwoods.
Right now, if you step outside, it's a biting 6°F. It feels much worse—closer to -8°F—thanks to a steady 9 mph wind coming out of the southwest. It's cloudy, which is typical for January here, as this month is historically the cloudiest time of the year, with overcast skies hanging around 58% of the time.
What's Really Happening This Week
Honestly, the next few days are going to be a test of your furnace. We aren't just looking at "cold"; we are looking at a serious Arctic slide. Tomorrow, Monday, January 19, is expected to top out at a measly 9°F before plummeting to -6°F overnight. If you're planning on being out, the wind is going to be the real story, kicking up to 18 mph from the northwest.
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By Friday, January 23, things get genuinely intense. We’re looking at a high of -3°F. Yes, a high that stays below zero. The overnight low is projected to hit -16°F. That’s the kind of weather where you leave the cabinets under the sink open to keep the pipes from freezing.
Breaking Down the 10-Day Outlook
- Sunday Night: Snow showers likely, low of 5°F.
- Monday: Partly sunny but windy, high of 9°F.
- Tuesday: Light snow throughout the day, sticking around 8°F.
- Wednesday: A "warm" spike to 18°F with more snow showers.
- Thursday: Clearing up, high of 10°F.
- Friday: Brutal cold, sunny but a high of -3°F.
- Weekend: Staying frigid with highs near -2°F and lows back down to -16°F.
The Microclimate Myth
People often assume Oconto Falls follows the exact same patterns as Green Bay. They’re wrong. Historically, the average high in January here is about 25°F or 26°F, but as we can see from the current 2026 data, we are trending significantly colder than the long-term averages.
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Usually, we get about 52 inches of snow a year. December is actually the snowiest month on average (hitting around 13 inches), while January typically brings about 11.3 inches. What makes the weather Oconto Falls WI unique is how the wind behaves. While April is technically the windiest month (averaging 17 mph), these January gusts across the flat farm fields can create localized whiteout conditions even when it isn't "officially" snowing that hard.
Humidity and Comfort
Surprisingly, humidity is a factor even in the winter. Current humidity is sitting at 79%. In the summer, Oconto Falls is actually quite pleasant—the humidity stays "comfortable" for about 141 days out of the year. July is the peak of this, with highs of 80°F and a lot of sunshine. But in January? That humidity just makes the cold air feel "wetter" and more piercing against your skin.
Staying Safe When the Mercury Drops
Since Oconto County officially transitioned to the RAVE Alert system this month, it's the only way you’re going to get localized severe weather hits now that CodeRED is decommissioned. If you haven't switched your registration, you’re basically flying blind.
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When we hit these -16°F nights, emergency management experts like Jon Spice emphasize the 3-day rule: have three days of food and water. It sounds dramatic until a transformer blows in a snowstorm and your road isn't scheduled for a plow until the morning.
Actionable Winter Prep for the 54154
- Update Your Alerts: Text OCONTO to 67283 right now. It takes thirty seconds and ensures you're on the new RAVE system.
- Check the Pipes: On Friday, when it hits -16°F, keep a slow drip going in faucets located on exterior walls.
- Vehicle Kit: Make sure you have a real blanket (not just a thin emergency one) and a bag of sand or kitty litter in the trunk. The Southwest wind at 11 mph can drift snow across Highway 22 faster than you’d think.
- Pet Safety: If it's too cold for you to stand outside in a coat for ten minutes, it's too cold for the dog. Shorten those walks.
The reality of weather Oconto Falls WI is that it’s unpredictable. We're currently in a stretch that is significantly colder than the historical "normal" for mid-January. Keep your tank at least half full and stay tuned to the local Oconto County updates rather than the generic state-wide feeds.