You've probably already checked your phone twice this morning. If you're looking at the weather NYC today hourly forecast, you're seeing a lot of "mostly cloudy" icons and temperatures hovering in the low 40s. It looks boring. Honestly, it looks like a typical, grey January Tuesday in Manhattan. But if you're planning on being out past sunset, there’s a bit more nuance to the atmosphere than a simple little cloud emoji can convey.
Right now, we are sitting in a weird, stagnant pocket of air. The humidity is hanging around 66%, and while it’s 42°F at the moment, the "feels like" temperature is dragging back at 36°F because of a persistent 11 mph wind coming out of the south. It’s that damp, biting cold that finds the gap between your scarf and your coat.
The Hourly Breakdown: Watching the Mercury Slide
Don't expect a lot of drama this afternoon. We hit a high of 46°F earlier, and we’re basically riding a slow, steady decline into the evening.
By 6:00 PM, the light is long gone, and we’ll be sitting at 41°F. If you’re heading to dinner or catching a show, keep the layers on. The south-southwest wind isn't letting up, and those gusts can hit 24 mph near the water or in those wind-tunnel cross-streets like 14th or 34th.
Around 8:00 PM, there is a tiny, 20% window for a stray rain or snow shower. It’s not a "storm" by any means. Think of it more like a nuisance. The National Weather Service in New York has been tracking this weak disturbance, and most of the moisture is going to stay north of the city. However, a few stray drops or a lone flake or two hitting your windshield isn't out of the question.
Late Night Transition
- 10:00 PM: Temperatures hold steady at 38°F. Cloud cover remains thick, about 90% coverage.
- Midnight: The wind shifts slightly more to the southwest. Humidity ticks up.
- 3:00 AM: We hit our overnight low of 32°F.
The interesting thing is what happens tomorrow. While today is relatively calm, we are actually in the "calm before the front." Meteorologists are watching a much more aggressive cold front that’s currently chewing through the Great Lakes. That system is going to make our current 40-degree weather feel like a tropical vacation by Thursday morning.
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Why the "Feels Like" Matters More Than the Number
In New York, the raw temperature is a lie. Between the tall buildings creating venturi effects and the moisture coming off the Hudson and East Rivers, a 40-degree day in NYC feels significantly different than a 40-degree day in, say, Denver.
Basically, the dampness makes the air more thermally conductive. It pulls heat away from your body faster. Today’s 57% to 66% humidity range means you’ll want a wind-resistant outer shell. If you wear a porous wool coat without a liner, that 11 mph wind is going to cut right through you by the time you reach the subway entrance.
The Big Picture: A Winter in Flux
We’ve had a strange January so far. Statistically, this is the coldest part of the year for the Atlantic Corridor, yet we’ve been seeing these unseasonably mild bumps. Today is one of them. Usually, we should be struggling to hit 39°F, but we’ve comfortably cleared that.
However, don't let the mild afternoon fool you into leaving your heavy gear at home tomorrow. The "January Thaw" we're experiencing today is scheduled to end abruptly Wednesday evening. We’re looking at rain transitioning to snow tomorrow night, with temperatures cratering into the teens by Thursday.
What You Should Do Right Now
- Check your footwear: The ground is dry now, but that slight chance of late-evening showers could make subway stairs slick.
- Layer for the wind: Focus on your neck and wrists. The southwest gusts are the real player in the weather NYC today hourly story.
- Plan for the drop: If you’re staying out late tonight, remember that 42°F at 5:00 PM becomes a freezing 32°F by the time you're heading home in an Uber or on the train at 2:00 AM.
The city is currently under a "Green" status for hazardous weather—meaning nothing is falling out of the sky that should ruin your commute. Just stay aware of the wind. Those 24 mph gusts can make a simple walk across the Brooklyn Bridge feel like an expedition.
Keep an eye on the sky toward the West after 8:00 PM. If the clouds thicken and the wind picks up, that's your cue that the minor front is passing through. Otherwise, enjoy the relatively "warm" air while it lasts, because the arctic air behind this system is going to be a reality check for all of us by Thursday.