If you’re standing on a subway platform in Midtown right now, staring at your phone and wondering why the "10% chance of rain" just turned into a literal bucket of water hitting your head, welcome to January in Manhattan. Honestly, checking the weather New York NY hourly is basically a part-time job for most of us. You’ve got the wind tunnels between the skyscrapers, the weird humidity off the East River, and that specific type of slush that somehow manages to soak through "waterproof" boots in six seconds flat.
Today is Wednesday, January 14, 2026. Or maybe it’s early Thursday morning for you. Either way, the atmosphere over the Five Boroughs is currently acting like a toddler having a meltdown.
We’re in the middle of a massive pattern shift. Most of the local meteorologists—guys like Paul Caiano over at WNYT and the crew at Fox 5—have been tracking a frontal boundary that’s basically parked itself right over the Tri-State area. It’s making the hourly forecast look like a chaotic mood board.
The Hourly Breakdown: What’s Actually Happening Outside
Let’s get into the weeds. If you’re looking at the weather New York NY hourly for the rest of today and into tonight, don’t just look at the big icon at the top of your screen.
📖 Related: Why Transparent Plus Size Models Are Changing How We Actually Shop
Right now, we're hovering around 41°F, but it feels like 36°F because of a 6 mph breeze coming up from the south. That humidity is sitting at a thick 79%. Translation: It feels damp and heavy. By 4 PM, things start to get messy. We’re looking at widespread rain that’s going to make the evening commute a nightmare.
- Late Afternoon (4 PM - 6 PM): Heavy overcast. Rain starts to pick up. You’ll see the temperature start to slide from those low 40s toward the high 30s.
- Sunset (around 5 PM): This is the "switch" moment. As that low-pressure system moves to our southeast, it’s dragging in colder air. That rain is going to start mixing with snow. It won’t be pretty. It’ll be that grey, watery mix that makes the roads look like oil slicks.
- The Midnight Plunge: By the time you’re heading to bed, we’ll be dropping below freezing. Anything that fell as rain is going to turn into a sheet of ice.
Thursday morning is a totally different beast. The "Polar Vortex" disruption that's been all over the news isn't just hype this time. We’re looking at a high of maybe 39°F, but a low of 20°F. And the wind? Southwest at 17 mph. That’s going to bite.
Why NYC Weather Forecasts Feel So Random
Ever notice how the forecast for the Upper West Side seems totally different from what’s happening in Rockaway? It’s not your imagination. New York City is a giant heat island. All that concrete and all those millions of people keep the city a few degrees warmer than the suburbs.
👉 See also: Weather Forecast Calumet MI: What Most People Get Wrong About Keweenaw Winters
Nelson Vaz from the National Weather Service often talks about this "variability." We’re currently in a weak La Niña year. Normally, that means less snow for us, but this 2025-26 season has been weirdly aggressive. We already saw a snow squall on New Year’s Day that dropped an inch in minutes.
The hourly data often struggles with the "Coastal Front." This is when cold air from the land meets the slightly warmer (but still freezing) air from the Atlantic. If that front moves five miles to the west, we get six inches of snow. If it stays over the water, we just get a cold drizzle.
The "RealFeel" vs. Reality
You see that "Feels Like" number on your app? Pay attention to it today. With the humidity near 100% and the wind picking up, a 34°F reading is going to feel significantly colder than it did in December. Your body loses heat faster in damp air.
✨ Don't miss: January 14, 2026: Why This Wednesday Actually Matters More Than You Think
Looking Ahead: The Third Wave is Coming
If you think tonight’s rain-to-snow transition is annoying, keep an eye on next week. Meteorologists are tracking a third "lobe" of Arctic air—essentially a piece of the polar vortex—that’s expected to break off and head straight for the Northeast.
While we’re seeing some sun for Friday and Saturday (highs in the mid-30s), Tuesday, January 20th is looking brutal. We’re talking a high of only 22°F and a low of 14°F. That is "pipes freezing" weather. Honestly, if you have errands to run, do them this Friday when the wind dies down.
Actionable Tips for This Week's Weather
Stop just looking at the temperature. Here is how to actually survive the next 48 hours in the city:
- Waterproof over Insulated: Tonight is about staying dry. Once you get wet in 35-degree weather, you’re done. Wear a shell, not just a wool coat.
- The 9 PM Check: If you park on the street, check the weather New York NY hourly at 9 PM tonight. If the temperature hits 31°F, your car doors might freeze shut by morning. Spray a little silicone lubricant on the rubber seals now if you can.
- Watch the "Vortex" Updates: This isn't a one-and-done storm. The stratospheric warming event happening right now means the atmosphere is "unzipped." Expect sudden, sharp changes in the hourly forecast for at least the next two weeks.
- Check Your Flight Status Early: JFK and LaGuardia are notorious for "creeping delays" during these rain-to-ice transitions. If the hourly shows a drop below 32°F between 6 PM and 10 PM, expect de-icing delays.
The reality of New York weather is that it’s never just one thing. It’s a mix of geography, urban heat, and global patterns like La Niña clashing in real-time. Stay dry tonight—tomorrow’s wind is going to be a lot less fun if your coat is still damp from the commute.
Next Steps:
Keep a close eye on the barometer readings this evening. If you see the pressure dropping sharply around 5 PM, that’s your signal that the heavier precipitation is about to start. I can help you break down the specific wind chill impact for your morning commute or look into the long-range "third wave" forecast for next Tuesday if you're planning travel.