London weather is basically a national obsession. We check the app before we brush our teeth. But honestly, looking at a 10-day forecast and thinking you know what February will look like is a rookie mistake. If you’re trying to plan a wedding, a garden renovation, or just figuring out when to finally put the heavy wool coats in storage, you’ve got to look at the big drivers.
Right now, in early 2026, the atmosphere is doing some pretty weird stuff. We’re coming off a chaotic start to January where the city saw lows of $-8$°C and yellow ice warnings that turned the morning commute into a skating rink. Everyone wants to know if the "Big Freeze" is sticking around or if we’re heading for one of those unnervingly mild springs.
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The La Niña Hangover
The biggest thing people ignore when looking at a weather long term forecast London is the Pacific Ocean. I know, it sounds crazy. Why does the temperature of water thousands of miles away matter for a rainy Tuesday in Croydon? It’s all about the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
We are currently in a La Niña advisory phase. Usually, La Niña pushes the jet stream north, which can actually leave the UK vulnerable to high-pressure "blocking" patterns. This is why we've had these sharp, biting frosts recently. However, the latest data from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) suggests a 75% chance that La Niña will exit stage left by March 2026.
What does that mean for your weekend plans?
Basically, the "locked-in" cold we saw in early January is likely to break. We’re transitioning to "ENSO-neutral." When the atmosphere is in transition, the weather gets jumpy. You might get a week of glorious 12°C sunshine followed by a "Balkan Snow Bomb" scenario where Arctic air slides down the North Sea.
February 2026: The Slushy Reality
If you're looking for a romantic, snowy Valentine’s Day, don't hold your breath. Long-term averages for London in February usually sit around a maximum of 7°C. Nighttime lows hover near 2°C.
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The Met Office outlook for 2026 suggests this year will likely be one of the top four warmest on record globally, with a central estimate of 1.46°C above pre-industrial levels. While that sounds like "global warming = t-shirt weather," it actually means more energy in the system. For London, that translates to more moisture.
Expect February to be damp. Very damp.
We’re looking at about 12 days of rainfall for the month. The real risk isn't a month-long blizzard; it’s the "rain-snow mix." That's the stuff that doesn't look pretty on Instagram but makes the Victoria Line a humid nightmare because everyone is wearing wet Barbours.
March 2026: A Fickle Spring
By the time we hit March, the weather long term forecast London starts to look a bit more optimistic, but there's a catch. Historically, March sees a jump to 10°C daytime highs. You get about four hours of sunshine a day—double what we get in the gloom of January.
But here’s what the "pro" forecasters are watching: the Polar Vortex.
There are early signs of Stratospheric Warming events. When the Stratosphere warms up rapidly, it can shatter the Polar Vortex. If that happens in late February, it "leaks" cold air south. This is exactly how we get those "Beast from the East" scenarios in March.
So, while the "average" says it's getting warmer, the "extreme" says keep your gloves handy.
Breaking Down the Numbers
I hate those perfect little tables that tell you exactly what the temperature will be on March 14th. They’re almost always wrong. Instead, look at the probabilities.
For the first quarter of 2026, the Met Office and Netweather are leaning toward "above average" temperatures overall. But "above average" in a London winter just means 8°C instead of 6°C. It’s still cold. Rainfall is also predicted to be slightly above average, especially in the south and east.
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- January: Settling into a "changeable" pattern. The extreme cold of the first week is being replaced by Atlantic low-pressure systems. Expect wind and drizzle.
- February: Likely to be the wettest month of the quarter. High pressure might build toward the end, leading to crisp, clear, but frosty mornings.
- March: The wildcard. If the La Niña exit is fast, we could see an early spring. If the Polar Vortex collapses, expect a late-season snow surprise.
Why London is Different
You've probably noticed that it can be freezing in the Cotswolds while it’s just "chilly" in Covent Garden. That’s the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. London's concrete and brick soak up heat during the day and bleed it out at night.
Because of this, London rarely stays below freezing for long. Even when a weather long term forecast London predicts -5°C for the home counties, the City of London usually stays around -1°C or -2°C.
This is why snow rarely "sticks" in Central London. It hits the ground, melts, and turns into that grey, salty slush we all love to hate. If you want the "Winter Wonderland" vibe, you usually have to head out past Zone 6 toward the Chilterns.
Strategic Planning for Londoners
So, how do you actually use this info?
First, stop looking at the "icon" on your phone app. Those icons represent the most "dramatic" weather expected in a 24-hour period. If there's a 10% chance of a shower at 3 AM, the app shows a rain cloud for the whole day.
Instead, look at the "feels like" temperature and the wind speed. In London, a 7°C day with no wind feels like spring. A 7°C day with a 20mph wind off the Thames feels like the end of the world.
Actionable Steps for the Next 60 Days:
- Waterproof over Insulated: Since 2026 is trending wet and "mildly cold," a high-quality waterproof shell is better than a giant puffer jacket. You’ll overheat on the Tube in a puffer.
- Check the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): If you see meteorologists talking about a "Positive NAO," it means the Atlantic is firing storms at us. It’ll be mild, windy, and wet. A "Negative NAO" means things are quieting down and getting colder.
- Gardeners, wait: With the threat of a late March frost due to the ENSO transition, don't be tempted to plant out your tender greens just because you get one warm week in February.
The weather long term forecast London isn't about certainties; it's about managing risk. This year, the risk is mostly about rain and "messy" transitions. Prepare for damp shoes and "changeable" skies, and you’ll be ahead of most people.