If you’ve lived in the Mesilla Valley for more than a week, you know the drill. You wake up and it's 31 degrees—literally freezing—and by the time you're hitting the driving range or grabbing lunch at Andele’s, you’re peeling off layers because it’s a gorgeous 60 degrees. That’s the desert for you. Looking at the weather las cruces nm 10 day forecast, it’s easy to just glance at the icons and move on. But there is a specific rhythm to January in Doña Ana County that most weather apps don’t really explain well.
Right now, we are sitting in that classic mid-winter stretch where the sky is painfully blue but the air has a bite. Honestly, if you’re planning anything outdoors between now and January 22nd, you're looking at a pretty steady run of "chamber of commerce" weather, with one or two little speed bumps.
Breaking Down the Weather Las Cruces NM 10 Day Forecast
The next few days are basically a copy-paste of perfection. Today, Tuesday, January 13, we’re looking at a high of 59°F. Tomorrow and Thursday keep that momentum, with highs hovering right around 60°F to 63°F. It’s dry. The humidity is sitting at a crisp 38%.
But don't get too comfortable.
By early next week—specifically Monday, January 19—we see a noticeable dip. Temperatures are expected to drop into the low 50s. While a 52°F day might sound "cool" to someone from Chicago, in the high desert, that temperature combined with our typical afternoon breezes feels significantly colder.
Here is the day-by-day vibe for the upcoming week:
The middle of this week (Jan 14-16) is the sweet spot. You’ll see highs of 63°F on Wednesday and 60°F on Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows are staying predictably chilly, right around 35°F to 39°F. If you have sensitive plants or "winter-fragile" pipes, these are the nights to keep an eye on, though we aren't seeing any hard-freeze warnings in the immediate data.
Saturday and Sunday (Jan 17-18) look great for the Farmers & Crafts Market downtown. We’re holding steady at 60°F and 62°F. You might notice more cloud cover on Sunday, as the humidity ticks up slightly, but the rain chance is negligible—only about 10%.
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The Wind and Dust Factor
You can't talk about Las Cruces weather without talking about the wind. While spring is our "official" windy season, January often gets some early previews. Currently, the winds are light, mostly 4 to 8 mph coming from the east and southeast.
However, looking toward Thursday, January 22, the models show wind speeds jumping up to 15 mph with higher gusts. In our neck of the woods, 15 mph is usually the threshold where the dust starts to kick up from the West Mesa. If you’re a sinus sufferer, that’s the day to keep the windows shut and maybe skip the hike up "A" Mountain.
Why Does It Feel Colder Than the Forecast Says?
There’s this thing called the diurnal temperature range. In Las Cruces, it's huge—often 30 degrees or more. Because our air is so dry, it doesn't hold onto heat. The second the sun drops behind the Organ Mountains, the temperature craters.
If the forecast says 60°F, that might only be the temperature for two hours in the mid-afternoon. For the other 22 hours of the day, it's significantly colder. This is why people from out of town always get caught under-dressed. You basically need three different outfits to survive a single Tuesday in January here.
Looking Back to Look Ahead
Historically, January is our coldest month. The record low for Las Cruces was a brutal -10°F back in 1962. We aren't anywhere near that this year. In fact, January 2026 is trending about 4 degrees warmer than the long-term historical average.
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This warming trend isn't just a fluke; data from the Western Regional Climate Center shows that southern New Mexico has been on a slow upward crawl in average winter temperatures for the last few decades. While we still get our occasional snow dusting—usually about 3.2 inches a year—the odds of a "White Christmas" or even a "White January" are roughly one in three. This year, the Pacific storm tracks are staying mostly to our north, which is why our 10-day outlook is so dry.
Moisture (Or the Lack Thereof)
We are currently in a dry spell. The total precipitation forecast for the next 10 days is effectively zero. While we sometimes get "backdoor" cold fronts that bring a little moisture from the Gulf, this week is dominated by high pressure.
- UV Index: Even though it's winter, the UV index is hitting 3. That’s enough to give you a burn if you’re out for a long time, especially with the high altitude (3,900 feet).
- Humidity: Expect it to stay between 30% and 50%. It’s great for your hair, terrible for your skin.
- Visibility: With the clear skies, visibility is currently at 10 miles. It’s a perfect week for photography at the Dripping Springs Natural Area.
Actionable Tips for This Week
Don't let the sunny icons fool you into complacency. If you're a local or just visiting, here’s how to handle the next 10 days:
1. The 3-Layer Rule: Wear a base t-shirt, a light fleece or sweater, and a wind-resistant outer shell. You will likely be wearing all three at 8:00 AM and just the t-shirt by 2:00 PM.
2. Hydrate More Than You Think: Desert air in January is a moisture thief. Because it’s not "hot," people forget to drink water. If you’re hiking the Soledad Canyon Loop this weekend, bring twice the water you think you need.
3. Vehicle Maintenance: Those 30-degree temperature swings are hell on tire pressure. If your "low tire" light comes on Wednesday morning, it’s probably just the cold air compressing. Check it once the day warms up before you rush to the shop.
4. Garden Prep: While it's tempting to start planting because the afternoons are so warm, remember that we can—and will—still have hard freezes through February. Keep your frost blankets handy for the dip on Monday night (Jan 19).
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The weather las cruces nm 10 day forecast shows a beautiful, stable stretch of New Mexico winter. It’s mostly sunny, predictably chilly at night, and perfect for being active outdoors as long as you respect the sunset temperature drop. Enjoy the 60-degree afternoons while they last, because once the February winds arrive, we'll be wishing for these calm, clear days again.
Keep an eye on the sky toward next Thursday the 22nd. That’s when the wind is likely to shift and bring a bit more dust and turbulence into the valley. Until then, it's clear sailing.