If you were hoping for a quiet start to the year, the atmosphere clearly had other plans. Honestly, the weather in the past 2 weeks has been a total Jekyll and Hyde act. We started January with people in Chicago wearing light jackets and ended up with half the world looking at a polar vortex "plunge" that feels like a personal attack.
It's been weird.
One minute we're breaking 140-year-old heat records, and the next, we're tracking a tropical storm named Ada churning through the Pacific. If you feel like your weather app is gaslighting you, you're not alone.
The Great January Thaw (That Went Too Far)
The first week of January 2026 felt more like a confused April. In the U.S. Midwest, specifically around January 8th and 9th, things got legitimately bizarre. Chicago hit 60°F at midnight. Think about that for a second. That tied a record from 1880. Meanwhile, Rockford, Illinois, smashed its previous high by hitting 59°F.
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But it wasn't just the warmth. It was the water.
Usually, January rain is a drizzly, depressing affair. This was different. On January 8th, O’Hare Airport recorded 1.92 inches of rain, making it the third rainiest January day in Chicago's entire history. We’re talking flash flooding in the middle of winter. The National Weather Service (NWS) had to scramble to issue warnings for thunderstorms that looked like they belonged in July.
Why was it so warm?
Basically, we were seeing a "disturbed" polar vortex. Instead of staying locked up at the North Pole like a well-behaved blizzard, the cold air was displaced toward Siberia and Greenland, leaving a massive opening for warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico to surge north.
- Weak La Niña: We are technically in a "weak" La Niña state, which usually means the southern U.S. stays dry and warm.
- The MJO Effect: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (a tropical rainfall pattern) was moving into a phase that actually fights against the typical La Niña setup.
- Atmospheric Blocking: High pressure near Greenland acted like a physical wall, redirecting the jet stream in ways that were hard to predict.
The Polar Vortex Strikes Back
As the second week of January progressed, the "thaw" started to evaporate—literally. By January 14th, the Washington Post and other outlets began sounding the alarm. That warm ridge in the East is currently being demolished by a series of three distinct Arctic surges.
The first wave hit the East Coast this past Thursday. Temperatures didn't just drop; they fell off a cliff, diving 10 to 20 degrees below average.
The third wave, which is timing out to hit right about now, is the real heavy hitter. We are looking at subzero temperatures for roughly 40 million people from Minnesota to Maine. In the Upper Midwest, lows are tanking into the -20s. This isn't just "winter weather." This is the kind of cold that turns your breath into crystals the second it hits the air.
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Meanwhile, in the Rest of the World
While the U.S. was busy oscillating between spring and deep-freeze, Europe and Asia were having their own drama.
Europe’s Missing Snow
Europe’s ski resorts started the year in a bit of a panic. In France, some lower-elevation resorts were expecting nearly 30 inches of snow on New Year's Day. They got maybe 10% of that. It’s been a "snow drought" for much of the French Alps, with the snowpack sitting at less than 50% of the seasonal norm.
However, Scandinavia is the exception. Up in Levi, Finland, the sun finally peeked over the horizon on New Year's Day after weeks of "polar night," only to be greeted by temperatures hitting -35°C.
Tropical Storm Ada
Most people don't think about tropical storms in January, but the Philippines is currently dealing with Tropical Storm Ada. It’s the first named storm of 2026. As of January 15, it’s packing winds of 65 kph and heading toward Eastern Samar. It’s a stark reminder that even as half the world freezes, the tropics are still pumping out heat and energy.
What Most People Get Wrong About This Pattern
There’s a common misconception that a warm start to January means winter is over. That’s a dangerous bet to make.
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Meteorologists like Mark Vogan and the team at Ray’s Weather have been pointing out that January is actually the most "active" month for a reason. You have a better overlap between cold air and moisture than you do in December. What we’ve seen in the weather in the past 2 weeks is actually a "nickel-and-dime" pattern.
It’s not one giant, historic blizzard. It’s a series of smaller, annoying events—a snow squall here, a flash flood there, and a sudden 40-degree temperature drop—that eventually add up to a very difficult winter.
The Real Drivers: ENSO and the AO
If you want to sound smart at a dinner party, mention the Arctic Oscillation (AO).
Right now, the AO is trending strongly negative. When the AO is positive, the cold air stays trapped in the north. When it goes negative, the "fence" around the pole breaks, and the cold air spills into the mid-latitudes. The latest 15-day forecast shows this negative phase lasting through the rest of the month.
| Weather Factor | Recent Status | Impact on You |
|---|---|---|
| Polar Vortex | Displaced/Southward | Extreme cold in the East/Midwest |
| La Niña | Weakening/Neutral | Less predictable storm tracks |
| Arctic Oscillation | Strongly Negative | Sustained "Deep Freeze" potential |
| Jet Stream | Highly Volatile | Rapid shifts from rain to snow |
What You Should Actually Do Now
The weather in the past 2 weeks has proved that "normal" is a relative term. Since we're heading into the harshest part of this January cycle, here are the moves that actually matter:
- Check your pipes today. We just came out of a warm spell, which is when people get complacent. With subzero lows hitting the Midwest and Northeast this week, that "thaw" followed by a "flash freeze" is a recipe for burst plumbing.
- Don't trust the "Daily High." In a polar vortex setup, the high temperature often happens at midnight. If the forecast says "High of 30," but that happens at 1 AM and it’s 5°F by noon, you’re going to be underdressed. Look at the hourly trend, not the summary.
- Prepare for "Ice Days." In Europe and the UK, the shift to northerly winds is creating "ice days" where the temperature never rises above freezing. If you're traveling, black ice is a much bigger threat right now than actual falling snow.
- Monitor the Tropics. If you have travel plans to Southeast Asia or the Philippines, Tropical Storm Ada is disrupting sea travel and causing landslides. This isn't a "wait and see" situation; the rainfall is already hitting Bicol and Samar.
The atmosphere is currently in a state of high-energy transition. We are moving from a record-breaking warm start to a sustained, classic Arctic regime. It’s messy, it’s unpredictable, and it’s definitely not over.
Actionable Insight: Download a weather app that provides "Integrated Vapor Transport" (IVT) or "Polar Vortex Position" maps. Most standard apps just give you a sun or a cloud icon, but in 2026, understanding where the jet stream is actually sitting is the only way to stay ahead of these 40-degree swings.