Honestly, looking at the forecast for San Jose this weekend, it’s one of those rare January stretches where you don’t have to worry about getting drenched or freezing your tail off. If you’ve lived in the South Bay for a while, you know January can be a total roll of the dice. Sometimes it’s atmospheric rivers; sometimes it’s just gray and depressing.
But this Friday, January 16, through Sunday, January 18, 2026, the weather in San Jose is actually looking pretty stellar for anyone who wants to hit the San Pedro Square Market or just grab a coffee downtown without a parka.
Basically, we’re looking at highs in the upper 60s and even hitting 70°F today. That’s significantly warmer than the historical average of 59°F for this time of year. While Saturday might feel a bit moodier with some clouds, the rain isn’t really invited to the party.
The Breakdown: Day-by-Day Expectations
Friday is the winner if you like sunshine. We're looking at a high of 71°F. It’s the kind of day where you leave the house with a jacket and realize by 2:00 PM that you’re carrying it like a chump. The wind is basically non-existent at 2 mph, which makes that 71°F feel even warmer.
Saturday, January 17, shifts things a bit. It’s going to be overcast. Not "scary storm" overcast, just that flat, gray Silicon Valley ceiling. Temperatures will dip slightly to a high of 67°F. There is a tiny 10% chance of a sprinkle, but it’s mostly just a cloud show. If you’re heading to the 49ers vs. Seahawks watch party at the Corinthian Grand Ballroom around 4:00 PM, you won't need to worry about the walk from the parking garage.
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Sunday keeps that trend going. We're expecting a high of 70°F and a low of 46°F. It’ll be mostly cloudy, but again, bone dry. It’s a solid day for the Studio Ghibli pop-up experience that’s currently running in town.
San Jose Weather This Weekend vs. The History Books
It’s easy to think this is just "normal" for California, but it’s really not. Looking back at historical data from the Norman Y. Mineta San José International Airport, January 2026 has been a bit of a wildcard. Earlier this month, around January 4, San Jose got hammered with over an inch of rain in a single day.
Compared to the 2025 data, where January saw some days struggle to hit 55°F, this weekend is a luxury. We are sitting about 8 to 11 degrees above the typical high. This "warm" spell is likely due to a ridge of high pressure keeping the storm track further north, which is why places like Napa are seeing a bit more action while we stay dry.
What to Actually Do With These Forecasts
Don't let the "mostly cloudy" label for Sunday scare you off. The UV index is going to be low (around 1 on Saturday), so while you probably won't get a tan, you also won't be shivering.
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If you're planning for specific events:
- Wanda Sykes at the Center for the Performing Arts (Friday 8 PM): It’ll be around 55°F when the show lets out. A light jacket is fine.
- SJSU Basketball vs. UNLV (Saturday 2 PM): Perfect walking weather to the Provident Credit Union Event Center. High 60s, very little wind.
- Anjelah Johnson-Reyes at the Civic (Sunday 8 PM): It’ll be around 52°F by the time you're heading home.
One thing people often get wrong about San Jose in the winter is the humidity. It’s currently hovering around 66% to 76%. That sounds high, but in the winter, it actually makes the air feel a bit more "substantial" rather than that biting, dry cold you get in the high desert.
The Reality of a "Dry" Weekend
Wait, didn't the Almanac say it was supposed to be rainy? Well, the long-range forecasts for the Pacific Southwest did predict a rainy period from the 15th to the 18th. But looking at the actual localized data for San Jose right now, that rain has either shifted or stayed offshore. This is why checking the localized San Jose station data is so much more reliable than those broad "California" outlooks you see on the news.
We are firmly in the "then sunny; turning chilly" phase of the transition. The chilly part hits more at night, with lows dropping to 44°F. If you’re out late at Myth Lounge or The Continental, that’s when you’ll actually feel the January bite.
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How to Handle the South Bay Temperature Swing
The biggest mistake people make here is dressing for the high and forgetting the low. A 25-degree swing between 2:00 PM and 10:00 PM is no joke.
Basically, you’ve got to layer. Start with a base that’s comfortable for 70°F, but have something that can handle the mid-40s by the time the sun goes down around 5:15 PM. Since the humidity is a bit higher, the cold feels "heavy" once the sun disappears.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Check your tires: If you’re driving into the Santa Cruz Mountains this weekend, keep in mind that while San Jose is dry, the shade in the canyons keeps those roads damp and slick.
- Outdoor dining is a go: This is the weekend to hit San Pedro Square or Willow Glen. Sunday afternoon is looking like peak patio weather.
- Water the plants: Since we’ve had a dry spell this week and temps are hitting 70°F, your garden might actually need a quick drink before the next potential front hits later next week.