You’ve seen the postcards. Golden sand, turquoise water, and that iconic stone arch. It looks like a permanent summer, right? Honestly, thinking the weather in San Jose Cabo is just one long, sweaty heatwave is the first mistake most travelers make.
I’ve spent enough time tracking the Baja pulse to tell you that this desert-meets-ocean climate is way more nuanced than a basic weather app suggests. It’s dry. It’s dramatic. And if you show up in February without a hoodie, you’re going to be shivering over your fish tacos once the sun goes down.
The Reality of the Baja Desert Climate
Basically, San Jose del Cabo lives in a tropical desert bubble. We aren't talking about the jungle humidity of Cancun or the mild Mediterranean vibes of Ensenada. Here, the Sierra de la Laguna mountains play gatekeeper, trapping heat while the Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Cortez fight for dominance over the air temperature.
Right now, as of mid-January 2026, we’re seeing a classic winter pattern. Today, Wednesday, January 14, it's sitting at a comfortable high of 79°F with a low of 61°F. The humidity is surprisingly low—around 33%—making that 79 degrees feel crisp rather than heavy.
Why January is Deceptive
People land in January expecting 90-degree beach weather. But look at the numbers. While the highs stay near 79°F to 81°F for the next week, those overnight lows of 59°F to 65°F are a wake-up call. It's desert life. The ground loses heat the second the sun disappears.
If you're out at a rooftop bar in the Art District or walking the San José Estuary at 8:00 PM, you’ll feel that 4 mph northwest wind. It’s not a gale, but it’s enough to make you wish you’d packed more than just linen shirts.
Breaking Down the Seasons (The Expert Version)
Most travel guides give you a "best time to visit" that’s just a copy-paste of peak tourism dates. Let's look at what's actually happening on the ground across the year.
The Sweet Spot: November to May
This is when the town truly breathes. The air is dry, the skies are almost aggressively blue, and the mercury hovers between 75°F and 85°F.
- Whale Watching Synergy: This isn't just about air temp. The water cools down, which is exactly why the Humpback and Gray whales show up. In late January, the Sea of Cortez is around 73°F. It’s chilly for a long swim without a shorty wetsuit, but it’s perfect for the whales.
- The Wind Factor: In the winter months, you’ll notice the "El Norte" winds. These can kick up to 16–18 mph, especially in June (the windiest month), but even in January, a 10-knot breeze is standard. It keeps the bugs away, which is a massive plus.
The "Secret" Shoulder: May and June
Personally, this is my favorite. The crowds from Spring Break have vanished. The temperatures start creeping into the high 80s or low 90s, but the humidity hasn't hit that "I need three showers a day" level yet.
Water temperatures start rising into the mid-70s. If you want to snorkel at Chileno Bay or Santa Maria without gasping at the cold, this is your window. Plus, the chances of rain are basically zero.
The Humidity Wall: July to September
This is where things get polarizing. By August and September, the average high hits 93°F, and the humidity jumps to 60-70%.
You walk outside and you’re wearing the air.
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This is also the official hurricane season. While direct hits aren't an everyday occurrence, tropical storms are the real deal. September is the wettest month, averaging about 2.25 inches of rain. That doesn't sound like much until you realize the entire year only sees about 4.82 inches.
When it rains in Cabo, it pours. The arroyos (dry creek beds) can turn into raging rivers in minutes. If you’re visiting now, you get the cheapest hotel rates, but you need to be tracking the National Hurricane Center like a hawk.
Sea Temperatures: It’s Not Always Bath Water
The Sea of Cortez is often called the "Aquarium of the World," but it’s an aquarium with a thermostat that moves.
- Winter (Jan-Mar): 70°F to 73°F. Great for whale watching, bit brisk for casual swimming.
- Summer/Fall (Aug-Oct): 82°F to 85°F. This is the peak for diving and snorkeling. The clarity is insane, and the water feels like a warm bath.
Interestingly, the Pacific side (near Cabo San Lucas) is usually 5-10 degrees cooler than the San Jose side because of deep-sea upwelling. Keep that in mind if you're planning a boat trip around the Arch.
What Most People Get Wrong About "Rainy Season"
There's a myth that if you visit in August, your trip is ruined.
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Hardly.
Rain in Baja is usually fast and furious. You’ll get a massive afternoon thunderstorm that clears the air, turns the desert a shocking shade of neon green, and then the sun is back out in two hours. The landscape transformation is actually stunning. The brown, dusty hills suddenly look like the rolling highlands of Scotland for about three weeks.
Practical Moves for Your Trip
Don't just pack based on a "tropical" label. Use these tiers based on the actual data.
The Winter Kit (December–March)
If you’re coming now, you need a light jacket or a denim coat. Those 60-degree nights are real. Pack polarized sunglasses; the UV index even in January hits 3 or 4, which is enough to burn you if you're out on a boat for three hours.
The Summer Survival Guide (July–September)
Electrolytes are more important than margaritas. The humidity will drain you faster than the heat will. If you’re golfing, tee off at 7:00 AM or don't do it at all. Ensure your resort has a "hurricane guarantee"—most high-end spots in San Jose del Cabo offer credit or easy rebooking if a named storm shuts down the airport.
The Water Enthusiast's Timing
If your goal is to be in the water, wait until at least May. If your goal is to be on the water looking at whales, January and February are unbeatable.
San Jose del Cabo is a desert that happens to have an ocean attached. It’s predictable 350 days of the year, but those other 15 days can be wild. Respect the desert sun, prepare for the nighttime chill, and you'll actually enjoy the weather instead of fighting it.
Check the local wind direction before booking a boat—if it's coming from the North/Northeast at 15+ mph, it’s going to be a bumpy ride. Currently, the northeast wind is a gentle 5 mph, making it a perfect week for the water.