So, you’re looking at the weather in New Smyrna Beach 10 days out and wondering if you should pack that bikini or a heavy hoodie. Honestly, Florida in January is a bit of a wildcard. One minute you’re sweating through a T-shirt at a sidewalk cafe on Canal Street, and the next, a cold front slams through and you’re shivering in 40-degree winds.
I’ve seen it happen. It’s basically a weather roller coaster.
Right now, New Smyrna is sitting in a weird transition. If you’re heading out today, Sunday, January 18, 2026, don’t let the morning sunshine fool you. We’ve got a high of 71°F hitting early, but there’s a 65% chance of rain and some seriously gusty 23 mph west winds. By tonight? That temperature is going to crater down to 38°F. That is a 33-degree drop in twelve hours. Welcome to winter in the 32168.
The 10-Day Reality Check
If you’re planning a trip over the next week and a half, the vibe is "crisp." Monday is going to be a gorgeous, albeit chilly, 54°F with full sun. It’s the kind of day where the sky is so blue it hurts your eyes, but you’ll definitely want a windbreaker.
Here is the breakdown of what the sky is actually doing:
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- Mid-Week Warm Up: Tuesday and Wednesday see a slow climb back into the 60s. Tuesday is mostly cloudy, but by Wednesday, we’re looking at a high of 66°F. It’s perfect walking weather for the local parks.
- The Weekend Shift: Friday, January 23, looks like the winner. We’re hitting 71°F again with pure sunshine. It’s timed perfectly for the Images Art Festival, which takes over Riverside Drive.
- Late January Drizzle: As we head into the following week, things get a bit gray. Monday, January 26, and Tuesday, January 27, are showing consistent 20% rain chances and highs hovering around 61°F to 65°F.
Basically, it's not "lay on a towel all day" weather, but it's "no-humidity-perfection" for literally everything else.
What Most People Get Wrong About NSB in Winter
The biggest mistake? Assuming the ocean is "warm because it's Florida."
The water temperature at the New Smyrna Inlet is currently around 65°F to 67°F. That is roughly 4 to 6 degrees colder than the historical average for mid-January. If you’re planning to surf—and let’s be real, NSB is the shark bite capital for a reason, so people are always out there—you need a 3/2mm full suit or at the very least a long-sleeve spring suit.
Don't be the person shivering in board shorts. It's not a flex; it's just uncomfortable.
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Also, the wind is a major factor here. Because NSB is on a barrier island, that "mild" 12 mph northwest wind forecast for Monday feels a lot sharper when it's coming off the Intracoastal. If you’re dining at an outdoor spot like Outriggers or The Garlic, grab a table with a heater. You’ll thank me later.
A Quick Word on the Surf
The swell is looking a bit messy with these shifting winds. Today has some 1-2 ft choppy waves with that heavy 14 mph onshore push, but Monday might see some "fair" conditions with 2-3 ft sets as the wind swings northwest. It’s not epic, but it’s rideable if you’ve got the rubber to stay warm.
Packing List (The "Don't Overthink It" Version)
Forget the heavy parka. You aren't going to the Arctic. But don't just bring shorts either.
- The "Layers" Strategy: A denim jacket or a light Patagonia-style fleece is the MVP. You’ll wear it every morning until about 11:00 AM.
- Shoes: Flip-flops are fine for the sand, but if you’re doing the Wine Walk on Flagler Avenue (it’s on the 24th!), wear actual sneakers. You’ll be doing a lot of pavement pounding.
- Sunscreen: I know, it’s 60 degrees. The UV index is still hitting a 3 or 4 most days. That Florida sun doesn’t care if it’s January; it’ll still toast your nose while you’re walking the Dog Beach.
- A Beanie: Sounds dramatic for Florida? Tell that to the people standing on the North Jetty at 7:00 AM when it's 38°F.
Events to Watch During This Weather Window
The weather is actually cooperating quite well for the big local events.
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The Images: A Festival of the Arts starts Friday, January 23, and runs through Sunday. With highs in the low 70s, you couldn't ask for better festival weather. It’s one of the top-rated fine art shows in the Southeast, and wandering Riverside Drive under the oaks is basically the peak NSB experience.
If you’re a foodie, the Flagler Avenue Chowder Challenge is happening Sunday, January 25. Honestly, a little bit of overcast, 60-degree weather is exactly what you want when you’re sampling fifteen different types of hot chowder.
Actionable Next Steps
If you are arriving in the next 48 hours, check your rental's heating situation. Some older beach cottages are built for "cool," not "cold," and that Sunday night drop to 38°F is no joke.
Keep an eye on the rip current risk. The National Weather Service in Melbourne currently has us at a Moderate Risk. With the west winds pushing today and swinging north tomorrow, the longshore currents can get tricky near the jetties.
Check the forecast one last time before you cross the North Causeway. Florida weather changes faster than a tourist looking for a parking spot on Flagler. Stick to those layers, grab a hot coffee at Third Wave, and enjoy the lack of humidity while it lasts.