Honestly, if you looked at the thermometer today, you’d think winter in West Texas had finally packed its bags and left for good. We hit the 70s. People were in t-shirts. It was glorious. But anyone who has spent more than a week in the Hub City knows that the weather in Lubbock tomorrow is about to pull a classic "Panhandle Pivot."
Friday, January 16, 2026, is going to be a wake-up call.
We aren't talking about a catastrophic blizzard here, but the shift is going to be felt in your bones. While today felt like early May, tomorrow is going to struggle to reach a high of 50°F. That is a 20-degree drop in 24 hours. Basically, you’ve got a cold front sliding in overnight, and it’s bringing some bite with it.
The Cold Front Timing and That North Wind
Expect the front to roll through in the early morning hours. By the time you’re heading to work or dropping the kids off at school, the wind won't be that gentle westerly breeze we had today. It’s shifting. Hard.
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The wind is coming from the northeast at a sustained 22 mph. If you’re a Texas Tech student walking across the breezy engineering key or trying to get into the SUB, that 50-degree high is going to feel significantly colder. Wind chill is the real story here. When you combine a high of 50 with a 20+ mph wind, it "feels like" it's in the low 40s or high 30s most of the afternoon.
The National Weather Service in Lubbock has been tracking a pair of shortwave disturbances moving southeast from Montana and Wyoming. These are the engines driving this cooldown. While they aren't dumping a foot of snow on us, they are tightening the pressure gradient. That means it’s going to be breezy, particularly through midday.
Rain or Snow? The 10% Reality
Everyone always asks: "Is it going to snow?"
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The short answer is: probably not. But there's a tiny asterisk. The daytime forecast is looking sunny with 0% chance of precipitation. However, as we move into Friday night, the sky turns partly cloudy and we see a 10% chance of snow.
10 percent.
In West Texas, a 10% chance of snow usually means one of two things. Either nothing happens at all, or three people in Shallowater see a single flake and post it on Facebook. The air remains incredibly dry—humidity is hovering around 28%. With dewpoint depressions that wide, it’s hard for moisture to actually reach the ground without evaporating first. If you see anything, it’ll be a few stray flurries that disappear the moment they hit the pavement.
Fire Weather Concerns (Yes, Even When It's Cold)
It sounds weird to talk about fire when the temperature is dropping, but the post-frontal airmass is bone-dry. The NWS has actually highlighted elevated fire weather conditions for portions of the Rolling Plains and the southeastern Texas Panhandle for Friday afternoon.
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Relative humidity values could dip near 10% in those areas. When you mix that with the 22 mph winds, a stray cigarette butt or a spark from a trailer chain can turn into a problem quickly. If you’re heading east toward Childress or the Caprock edge, just be mindful. The fuel states (the grass and brush) are very dry right now.
What You Should Actually Wear
Lubbock fashion is basically just "layers you can throw in the backseat by noon," but tomorrow is different. You probably won't be shedding many layers.
- A Windbreaker or Shell: This is non-negotiable. A thick wool coat is nice, but if the wind can blow right through the weave, you’ll be miserable. You need something that blocks the 22 mph northeast wind.
- Morning Gear: The low tonight is hitting 26°F. If you’re out before 8:00 AM, you’re in the sub-freezing zone. Gloves and a beanie are smart for the morning commute.
- Moisturizer: Seriously. With 28% humidity and wind, your skin will feel like parchment paper by Friday night.
Looking Ahead to the Weekend
If you think Friday is chilly, just wait for Saturday. The high is currently projected to be even lower—somewhere around 40°F. This isn't a "one-and-done" front; the cold air is going to settle in for a bit before we see a slight recovery on Sunday.
The "zonal flow" (flatter air patterns) won't really return until the middle of next week. Until then, we’re stuck in this cycle of Canadian air dipping down to remind us that it is, in fact, January.
Actionable Next Steps:
Check your tire pressure tonight. These 20-degree temperature swings usually cause "Low Tire Pressure" lights to pop up all over the city as the air density changes. Also, make sure your outdoor pets have a shielded place to get out of that northeast wind—50 degrees is fine, but 50 degrees with a 22 mph wind is a different beast for animals. Keep your gas tank at least half-full to prevent any moisture in the lines from freezing during that 26-degree overnight dip.