Weather in Key Largo 10 Days: What the Locals Won’t Tell You

Look, everyone thinks the Florida Keys are a permanent 85-degree sauna. Honestly, if you’re looking at the weather in Key Largo 10 days out right now, you’re probably seeing some numbers that look a little "chilly" for the subtropics. It’s January 2026, and we are smack in the middle of the "cool" season.

But here’s the thing: "Cold" in Key Largo is a total joke to anyone living north of Orlando.

Right now, as of Thursday, January 15, we’re sitting at 73°F. It feels like 77°F because the humidity is holding steady at 67%. There’s a west wind kicking up at 25 mph, which is honestly pretty "sporty" if you’re planning to head out to French Reef or the Elbow for a dive.

The 10-Day Reality Check

If you’re packing your bags, don't just throw in flip-flops. You’ve gotta be smarter than that.

Tonight is actually going to be the coldest bit of the stretch. We’re looking at a low of 53°F. Yeah, you’ll want a hoodie. But check out how fast this place bounces back. By the time we hit the 10-day mark on Sunday, January 25, we’re back to a gorgeous 79°F high.

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Here’s the breakdown of what’s actually happening over the next week and a half:

• The Immediate Outlook: Tomorrow (Friday) is going to be a blue-bird day. Sunny, high of 71°F, and the wind shifts to the north. It’s that crisp, clean air that makes the Atlantic look like glass in the shallows but can still be a bit bumpy offshore.
• The Mid-Week Swing: Saturday and Sunday stay in the mid-to-upper 70s. You’ll see some clouds, maybe mostly cloudy on Saturday with a high of 75°F, but rain chances are low (around 20%).
• The Dip: Monday, January 19, brings a minor front. The high drops to 66°F. If you’re a diver, this is the day you’ll definitely want that 5mm full suit. Sea Dwellers Dive Center and other local pros usually suggest a hood too if the water temp dips toward that 70°F mark.
• The Recovery: From Tuesday onwards, it’s a slow climb. We go from 72°F to 75°F, eventually hitting those near-80 numbers by the following weekend.

Why the Wind Matters More Than the Temp

In Key Largo, the temperature is only half the story. The wind is the real boss.

We’re seeing speeds between 20 and 27 mph for the first few days of this forecast. When the wind comes from the West or Northwest at those speeds, it stirs up the "muck" on the bayside and can make the reef a bit turbid.

If you’re fishing, this is actually kinda great for some species. According to local fishing reports, these January fronts push baitfish into the backcountry. You can target Sailfish and Wahoo near the outer reef edge when the Gulf Stream shifts shoreward.

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Water Temperatures: Can You Actually Swim?

The water right now is hanging out between 70°F and 75°F.

For a local, that’s "ice water." For a tourist from Michigan, it’s a heated pool.

If you’re snorkeling at John Pennekamp Coral Reef State Park, basically everyone is going to be in a wetsuit. Even a 3mm shorty makes a massive difference when you’re in the water for 45 minutes looking at brain coral and parrotfish.

What Most People Get Wrong

The biggest misconception about the weather in Key Largo 10 days out is that a "cloudy" forecast means a ruined trip.

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Subtropical clouds move fast. "Mostly cloudy" usually means you’ll get bursts of intense sun followed by some shade. It’s actually the best weather for sitting at a tiki bar like Snappers or Sharkey’s because you don’t get absolutely roasted by the UV rays—which, by the way, are still hitting a 5 or 6 on the index even on "cool" days.

Actionable Advice for Your Trip:

1. Layer Up: Bring a windbreaker. That 25 mph wind feels significantly colder when you’re on a moving boat.
2. Watch the Wind Direction: If it's blowing hard from the East, the Atlantic side will be rough. If it’s from the West, the bayside (Blackwater Sound) might get choppy.
3. Book the Afternoon: Morning lows are in the 50s this week. Wait for the 2:00 PM sun to hit the water before you jump in.
4. Check the Tide: In the winter, a low tide on a cold morning can make the flats extra chilly for fish. If you're angling, aim for the incoming tide when warmer ocean water pushes in.

Basically, the next 10 days in Key Largo are classic winter-lite. It’s windy, it’s fresh, and it’s a hell of a lot better than shoveling snow.