Right now, if you step outside in Covington, it’s 26°F. Honestly, it feels way colder than that—closer to 16°F—thanks to a biting northwest wind kicking at 11 mph. It’s clear tonight, which is basically the recipe for a deep freeze in West Tennessee. If you’ve lived here long enough, you know the drill. You wrap the pipes, hope the car starts, and wonder why on earth you live somewhere that swings from a swampy sauna in July to a literal ice box in January.
People from up north laugh at us when we talk about "winter." They think we’re being dramatic. But the weather in Covington TN isn’t just about the temperature; it’s about that weird, humid chill that sinks into your bones. It’s a different kind of cold. One day you’re wearing a light jacket to the square, and the next, you’re looking at a 90% chance of heavy snow and showers, which is exactly what’s lurking in the long-range forecast for next Sunday.
The Humidity Factor Nobody Talks About
Most weather apps give you a number and a little sun icon. They don’t tell you that 40°F in Covington feels remarkably like 25°F in a drier climate. We’re sitting in Tipton County, right in that sweet spot where the Gulf moisture wanders up and hits the cold fronts coming off the plains.
January 17th is historically one of our coldest stretches. This year is no exception. We’re currently looking at a high of 38°F today, which dropped to a low of 19°F. Tomorrow? Even colder highs around 35°F. It’s a dry stretch for now—0% chance of snow tonight—but the humidity is hanging at 57%. That’s high enough to make the air feel thick and heavy, even when it’s freezing.
When you look at the historical data, Covington usually averages a high of 48°F in January. We are significantly below that right now. In fact, we’ve seen some wild swings already this month. Just a week or so ago, on January 8th, it hit a whopping 72°F. Then, a few days later, it plummeted to 25°F. That’s a 47-degree swing in a week. That’s West Tennessee for you. It’s enough to give anyone a sinus headache.
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Why the 2026 Forecast Feels Different
We’re currently dealing with a weird transition. The La Niña pattern that’s been hovering around is supposed to be shifting toward "neutral" as we head into the spring. What does that actually mean for your weekend plans? Basically, chaos.
The Climate Prediction Center has been leaning toward a "toss-up" for our region. Usually, La Niña means drier and warmer for the South, but we’re sitting right on the dividing line. That’s why our 10-day outlook looks like a rollercoaster. We’ve got:
- Sunny skies and 35°F on Sunday.
- A chance of rain and snow by Tuesday night (35% chance).
- A sudden jump to 54°F by next Friday.
- A potential "hammer" on Sunday, January 25th, with a 90% chance of heavy snow and a low of 19°F.
If that Sunday snow actually hits, the town will probably shut down. It doesn't take much. A dusting of snow on Highway 51 and everyone starts driving like they've never seen a road before. But hey, it keeps things interesting.
The Great Drought of 2025-2026
One thing that’s really flying under the radar is how dry it’s been. We talk about the cold, but the rainfall—or lack of it—is the real story. Since July 2025, the entire Southeast has been under a massive precipitation deficit.
As of mid-January 2026, about 99% of our region is classified as "Abnormally Dry" or in a state of drought. You might notice it in the creek levels or the way the ground feels like concrete. Even though we’re seeing "heavy snow" in the forecast for late next week, we actually need the moisture. Winter is supposed to be our "recharge" season for the water table. If we don’t get a consistent wet pattern soon, the spring planting season for our farmers is going to be a struggle.
What Most People Miss About Covington Winters
Covington isn't Memphis, and it isn't Jackson. We have our own little microclimate here in Tipton County. Because we're a bit more rural and open, the wind tends to whip across the fields and hit the city limits with more force.
Take tonight’s wind: 11 mph from the northwest. In a bigger city with more buildings to break the wind, that might not feel like much. Out here? It’s a piercing cold. The UV index is a 0, so there’s no help from the sun.
Is it always this bleak? No way. By March, we'll be complaining about the mud. By June, we'll be complaining about the gnats and the 90-degree days with 90% humidity. But right now, the weather in Covington TN is all about survival and keeping your pipes from bursting.
Actionable Tips for This Week
If you're living through this current cold snap, don't just trust the "high" temperature on your phone. Look at the "feels like" and the wind direction.
- Check your pipes now: With lows hitting 17°F and 18°F several nights this week (Monday and Tuesday especially), those outdoor spigots need covers.
- Watch Sunday the 25th: That 90% chance of snow is the highest probability we've seen all season. Start thinking about your grocery run by Thursday.
- Humidity matters: If you're running the heater non-stop, the indoor air is going to get incredibly dry. A small humidifier can save you from a scratchy throat.
- Mind the wind: Winds will be gusting up to 15 mph from the North by the end of next week. That brings the "feels like" temp down into the single digits at night.
The reality is that Covington weather is unpredictable because of where we sit geographically. We are the gateway between the delta and the hills. One minute it's clear and 26°F, the next we're bracing for a snowstorm. Stay weather-aware, keep a coat in the truck, and maybe buy an extra loaf of bread—just in case.