You've stepped out of a subway station in Midtown only to realize the "sunny" day promised by your phone is actually a gray, drizzly mess. It’s a classic New York moment. Weather in this city is fickle. Honestly, if you aren't checking a weather hourly forecast NYC specific to your borough, you're basically guessing.
Today is Wednesday, January 14, 2026, and the atmosphere over the Five Boroughs is currently pulling a fast one on us. While the morning felt relatively mild, things are shifting fast. We are currently sitting at 45°F, but that number is a bit of a lie. The wind is coming in from the south at 6 mph, making it feel closer to 42°F.
The clouds are heavy. They’re hanging low at about 10,000 feet, casting that familiar concrete-gray hue over the skyline. Most people assume that "cloudy" just means no sun, but in January in New York, it usually means a change in pressure that's about to ruin your commute.
The Midday Shift: Why the Next Few Hours Matter
If you’re planning on a late lunch or heading out for a site visit in Long Island City, keep the umbrella handy. Between now and 4:00 PM, the rain probability is creeping up. We've seen a slow strengthening of a frontal boundary over the region.
Scattered showers will likely become more widespread as we hit the mid-afternoon. This isn't just "nuisance" rain; it’s the precursor to a much colder system. By 5:00 PM, we’re looking at a steady 46°F, but the humidity is hovering around 64%, which adds that damp, bone-chilling quality to the air that only New Yorkers truly understand.
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The Evening Transition to Snow
Here is where the weather hourly forecast NYC gets tricky. As the sun sets—which, by the way, is happening at 4:52 PM today—the temperature is going to start a slow, agonizing slide.
- 5:00 PM to 7:00 PM: Temperatures hold steady near 44°F. Rain remains the primary concern.
- 8:00 PM to 10:00 PM: This is the danger zone. As low pressure develops to our southeast, it’s going to suck in cooler air from the north.
- 11:00 PM: We expect a transition. That rain is going to start mixing with, and eventually turning into, snow.
By midnight, the temperature will drop toward 38°F, and by tomorrow morning, it’ll be a different world. If you’re parked on the street, check the alternate side parking rules now. A flash freeze or a sudden accumulation can trigger a suspension faster than you can say "Upper West Side."
Decoding the Microclimates of NYC
New York isn’t one weather bubble. It’s a collection of microclimates. Central Park usually records the "official" temperature, but that doesn't help you if you’re down by the water in Battery Park or out in the wind tunnel of the Rockaways.
The "heat island effect" is a real thing here. All that asphalt and brick absorbs heat during the day and radiates it back at night. This is why Manhattan can sometimes be 3 to 5 degrees warmer than the outer reaches of Queens or the Bronx. Today, that difference might be the literal line between a cold rain and a slushy mess on your windshield.
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Understanding the Humidity and Dew Point
We don't talk about dew points enough in the winter. Right now, the dew point is sitting around 24°F. That’s dry. When you have a large gap between the air temperature (45°F) and the dew point, any precipitation that falls actually cools the air through evaporation.
It’s a process called evaporative cooling. Basically, as it starts raining this afternoon, the rain itself might help pull the temperature down toward that snow-line faster than the forecast models initially predicted.
Wind Chill and the "Wind Tunnel" Effect
New York's grid system is a nightmare for wind. The skyscrapers act like the walls of a canyon, compressing the air and forcing it to move faster. Even a "light breeze" of 6 mph can feel like a biting gust when it's funneled down 42nd Street.
By tonight, the wind will shift from the south to the west-southwest. This brings in drier, colder air from the interior of the country. Expect the "feels like" temperature to drop into the 20s by the time the bars close.
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Looking Ahead: The Thursday Morning Commute
If you’re checking the weather hourly forecast NYC for work reasons, Thursday is the day to watch. While tonight starts with rain, we are anticipating roughly 3 to 5 inches of snow accumulation by dawn.
The temperature will plummet to a low of 24°F overnight. That means anything that was wet at 6:00 PM will be a sheet of ice by 6:00 AM. The Department of Sanitation (DSNY) usually gets the salt spreaders out early, but the side streets in Brooklyn and the Bronx are always a gamble.
Expert Tips for Navigating NYC Weather Today
- Layering is a Science: Don't just wear one heavy coat. Start with a moisture-wicking base because the subways are famously overheated, even in January.
- Waterproof Your Feet: Today is a "duck boot" day, not a "fashion sneaker" day. Slush puddles at the curb can be six inches deep.
- Check the Sensors: Use sites like Weather Underground or NYS Mesonet to see real-time data from specific neighborhoods rather than just the Central Park station.
- Timing the Front: If you have to run errands, do them before 3:00 PM. That's when the "widespread" rain is expected to kick in.
The National Weather Service (NWS) out of Upton, NY, is currently monitoring this boundary closely. While we aren't under a full-blown blizzard warning, the transition from rain to snow is one of the hardest things for meteorologists to pin down to the exact hour. A shift of just 20 miles in the track of the low-pressure system can mean the difference between a dusting and a shovel-heavy morning.
Ultimately, being prepared for the 2026 winter season in New York means being comfortable with uncertainty. We are seeing more "wetter" winters lately due to the moderate La Niña patterns that have dominated since the early 90s. This means more moisture is available, making these "rain-to-snow" transitions more frequent and more intense.
To handle the rest of your day effectively, check your local transit apps before leaving the office this evening. If the snow starts earlier than the 9:00 PM estimate, the MTA will likely begin implement slow-speed orders on outdoor track sections. Stay dry, keep your phone charged, and maybe grab that extra bag of rock salt on the way home.
Actionable Steps for the Next 12 Hours:
- Seal your windows: The drop from 45°F to 24°F tonight will be felt inside older apartments; check for drafts now.
- Verify morning transit: Set an alert for your specific subway line, as ice on the third rail often causes "signal problems" during the first snow-to-ice transition of the month.
- Charge devices: High winds and heavy wet snow can occasionally lead to localized power flickers in the outer boroughs.