Ever tried to plan a weekend at Tims Ford Lake only to have the sky drop a surprise snow shower on your pontoon boat? Honestly, if you live in Franklin County, you’ve probably realized that looking at a generic weather app is about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. Winchester sits in this weirdly specific geographic pocket where the Cumberland Plateau meets the Tennessee Valley. It creates a microclimate that can be frustratingly unpredictable.
Right now, we are staring down a pretty interesting stretch of January.
Current Conditions: The Chill is Real
As of tonight, January 18, 2026, things are getting crisp. We are looking at a current temperature of 28°F. But here is the kicker: the wind is coming out of the southwest at about 6 mph, which makes that "feels like" temperature drop all the way down to 22°F. It’s the kind of cold that bites your nose the second you walk out of the Sundrop Shoppe.
The sky is clear for now, and the humidity is sitting at 59%. You don't have to worry about the white stuff tonight—precipitation chance is a flat 0%.
Looking Ahead: The 10-Day Breakdown
If you’ve got plans this week, you’re basically riding a temperature roller coaster. Tomorrow, January 19, starts off mostly sunny with a high of 39°F and a low of 16°F. Watch out for that wind, though. It’s shifting to the northwest and picking up to 15 mph. That’s going to make the afternoon feel significantly colder than the thermometer says.
Here is how the next few days are shaping up in Winchester:
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- Tuesday, Jan 20: Bright and sunny. High of 41°F and a bone-chilling low of 16°F. The air will be super dry with only 32% humidity.
- Wednesday, Jan 21: We start to see a shift. Light rain is expected with a high reaching 49°F. The low won't be quite as brutal at 30°F.
- Thursday, Jan 22: High of 51°F. This is the warmest day in the immediate forecast, but the night brings a messy mix of rain and snow as the low hits 30°F.
- Friday, Jan 23: Cloudy and turning colder again. High of 44°F and a low of 24°F with snow showers possible overnight.
The Big Snow Potential: Saturday, January 24
If you’re a fan of a "snow day," keep your eyes on next Saturday. The data is currently showing a 75% chance of snow throughout the day and night. We are looking at a high of 36°F and a low of 25°F.
With a northeast wind at 10 mph and humidity spiking to 69%, this could be the most significant accumulation we’ve seen so far this season. Of course, this is Middle Tennessee. A 75% chance can turn into a light dusting or a full-blown "milk and bread" emergency in about six hours.
Why Winchester Weather is So Moody
Most people don't realize that our proximity to the lake actually impacts local temps. Tims Ford Lake covers about 10,000 acres. While it doesn't usually freeze, that body of water acts like a heat sink. In the early winter, it can keep the immediate shoreline just a degree or two warmer than the higher elevations toward Sewanee or Cowan.
Historically, January is our cloudiest month. Data from local stations and the National Weather Service in Huntsville shows that we only get clear skies about 45% of the time this month. We average about 1.1 inches of snow for the whole month of January, but as anyone who lived through the 2021 winter storms remembers, averages are just numbers until the ice starts breaking power lines.
Practical Advice for the Next 7 Days
Since we are looking at lows in the teens and a high probability of snow next weekend, here is what you actually need to do:
- Drip those faucets: On Monday and Tuesday nights, when we hit 16°F, your pipes are at risk. A slow drip is cheaper than a plumber.
- Check the Lake Levels: If you're planning on fishing, the water temp was recently clocked at 46°F. With the air temp dropping, the fish are going to be deep and sluggish.
- The Windshield Trick: If you’re parked outside Wednesday night into Thursday, cover your windshield. We are expecting a rain/snow mix and a low of 30°F. That is the perfect recipe for a layer of ice that's impossible to scrape off.
- Local Alerts: Don't just rely on the national apps. The Tennessee Valley Weather App or the WSMV 4 First Alert are usually more dialed into the specific terrain of the Tennessee Valley and Southern Middle Tennessee.
Basically, enjoy the sun while it's here Monday and Tuesday. By the time Saturday rolls around, you'll probably want to be hunkerded down with a hot coffee from Walnut Hill. Stay warm, Winchester.