If you’ve spent any time near the River Sow lately, you’ve probably noticed that Stafford doesn't just "get weather." It gets a very specific, often annoying, brand of West Midlands dampness. Right now, as of mid-January 2026, the weather forecast Stafford UK is looking like a messy mix of "grab your big coat" and "maybe don't park near the river."
Honestly, Stafford is in a weird spot. We’re tucked into a landscape that should be protected by the Welsh mountains, yet we still end up with that bone-chilling humidity. Today, we’re sitting at a crisp 36°F (about 2°C), but with the wind coming off the south at 8 mph, it feels more like 30°F. If you’re heading out toward Victoria Park or the town centre, you’ve basically got to prepare for a gray ceiling that just won't budge.
What’s actually happening with the Stafford forecast?
Looking at the immediate weather forecast Stafford UK for the next 48 hours, things are getting a bit slushy. Tomorrow, Thursday, January 15, we're expecting a transition from rain to light snow as the sun goes down. Temperatures will peak at 42°F (6°C), which is the standard January average for this part of Staffordshire.
But here’s the kicker: the humidity is sitting at a whopping 96% for tomorrow. That’s why the cold feels like it’s actually seeping into your marrow.
The 10-Day Outlook (at a glance)
- Friday, Jan 16: Rain and snow mix. High of 45°F. Messy roads.
- Saturday, Jan 17: Mostly cloudy. A bit warmer at 47°F. Best day for a walk.
- Sunday, Jan 18: Light rain returns. 44°F.
- The Week Ahead: We’re staying in this 40°F to 45°F range. It’s consistent, if nothing else.
Rainfall is the real story right now. We've seen a lot of snow melt recently, and combined with the 45% chance of rain tomorrow, the Environment Agency has been keeping a very close eye on the River Sow and River Penk.
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The "Rain Shadow" Mystery
Ever wondered why it can be pouring in Shrewsbury but relatively dry in Stafford? It’s called the rain shadow effect. Because most of our weather comes from the Atlantic, the Welsh mountains act like a giant sponge. They soak up the heaviest rain, leaving the West Midlands—including us—relatively dry compared to the coast.
However, "dry" is a relative term in the UK.
In Stafford, our biggest weather headache isn't necessarily the volume of rain, but where it goes. The Sow and Penk catchments are notoriously sensitive. Just this week, flood alerts were issued for low-lying land between Great Bridgeford and Shugborough. If you’re driving through those back lanes near Milford or Coven, you’ve likely seen the fields looking more like lakes.
Is 2026 weirder than usual?
Kinda. We’re seeing a trend that the Met Office and groups like Sustainability West Midlands have been warning about for years. Our winters are getting wetter and milder.
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Think back to the "Great Flood" of 1947 or even the more recent 2020 storms. The data shows that while our annual rainfall hasn't spiked massively, the intensity has. We get these "rain bombs" where a month's worth of water drops in a few days.
- Average Jan Temp: 4°C (39°F)
- Average Jan Rainfall: Around 60mm
- Current Trend: More "rain-to-snow" flip-flops than we saw in the 90s.
According to the Staffordshire County Council’s latest climate action reports, we should expect more of these erratic shifts. It’s not just about the cold anymore; it’s about managing the "snow melt + heavy rain" combo that puts the town's drainage to the test.
Practical Advice for Stafford Residents
If you're looking at the weather forecast Stafford UK and planning your week, here is what you actually need to do:
Check the Milford River Gauge
If you live near the sow, don't just check the sky. Check the river levels at Milford. When that gauge spikes, the flooding at the bottom of town usually follows about 6 to 12 hours later.
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Watch the "Feels Like" Temp
The raw number on your phone (like 42°F) is a lie. Because Stafford is in a valley, the dampness hangs. Always subtract about 5 degrees in your head to account for the humidity-driven chill.
The Snow-Rain Line
We are currently on the "knife-edge" of the snow line. A half-degree difference is the gap between a light dusting and a miserable freezing rain. Keep an eye on the wind direction—east winds usually bring the proper biting cold from the continent, while south-westerlies (like we have now) bring the damp.
Actionable Next Steps
Before you head out, verify the live flood status on the GOV.UK "Check for Flooding" service, specifically for the River Sow and Penk areas. If you're commuting toward Birmingham or Stoke, give yourself an extra 15 minutes tomorrow morning; the rain-to-snow transition around 6:00 PM Thursday is likely to leave the A34 and M6 corridor quite slick by Friday morning.