Winter in the Alamo City has been, well, a little weird so far. We’ve been coasting through January 2026 with light sweaters and rolling our eyes at the "winter" gear taking up space in the closet. Honestly, I’ve seen more people in shorts on the River Walk this week than I’ve seen in actual pants. But if you’ve lived here long enough, you know the blue northers don't play.
The weather forecast San Antonio Texas 15 day outlook is finally signaling a vibe shift. We aren’t just looking at a "chilly" morning; we are staring down the barrel of the first official freeze of the season.
The immediate drop: Sunday is the big one
If you’re reading this on Friday, January 16, enjoy that 74°F high while it lasts. It’s a trick. A cold front is currently sliding through the Hill Country, and it’s bringing some aggressive north winds with it—gusts up to 30 mph are on the menu.
Saturday is when the reality check hits. Expect a "Texas 50s" kind of day—clouds, wind, and that damp air that makes 53°F feel like 40°F. But the real story is Sunday morning, January 18. This is the moment we’ve been waiting for (or dreading). The National Weather Service is calling for a widespread freeze. We’re talking upper 20s for the metro area and potentially mid-20s for places like New Braunfels and Fredericksburg.
✨ Don't miss: Exactly What Month is Ramadan 2025 and Why the Dates Shift
It’s the latest we’ve gone without a freeze in years. Records show we only hit 32°F this late a handful of times, with 2016 being the most recent memory of a January 23 freeze. Basically, nature finally remembered what month it is.
Looking ahead: The MLK Day March and beyond
For everyone planning to head out for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day March on Monday, January 19, you’re gonna want layers. Lots of them.
- 7:00 AM: Expect a crisp 35°F.
- 10:00 AM (Start of the March): Warming up to 50°F.
- 12:00 PM: Likely hitting the lower 60s.
It’ll be dry and sunny, which is great news for the crowds, but that morning bite is no joke. Don't be the person shivering in a thin hoodie.
🔗 Read more: Dutch Bros Menu Food: What Most People Get Wrong About the Snacks
Once we clear the holiday, the pattern shifts again. Tuesday and Wednesday (Jan 20-21) look pretty gloomy. Moisture is going to override that cold air, bringing a high chance of rain—especially on Wednesday. We could see anywhere from a quarter-inch to a full inch of rain, particularly toward the coastal plains. The good news? It’s likely too warm for any "winter mix" drama, so travel shouldn't be a nightmare.
The back half of the 15-day stretch
Looking toward the final week of January, we’re stuck in a bit of a seesaw. By Thursday, January 22, the rain clears out, and we bounce back into the 60s.
Then, another front looks to clip us around January 24-25. Long-range models suggest this won’t be as harsh as the Sunday freeze, but it’ll keep us in that "overcast and drizzly" cycle that San Antonio does so well in the winter. Expect highs to hover in the mid-60s with lows dipping into the 40s and 50s.
💡 You might also like: Draft House Las Vegas: Why Locals Still Flock to This Old School Sports Bar
It’s classic La Niña behavior. We’re seeing these quick-moving systems that tease us with cold but don't quite have the staying power of a true arctic blast. Speaking of La Niña, meteorologists at KSAT and the NWS are keeping a close eye on the Pacific. We’re currently in a weak La Niña, which usually means warmer and drier winters for us. That explains why we’ve been sweating in our North Face jackets until now.
Why this forecast actually matters for your house
Since this is our first real freeze, you can't just ignore it. San Antonio homes aren't exactly built like Minnesota basements.
- The Pipe Situation: Most people use the "Whataburger cup" method—slipping a foam cup over the outdoor faucet. It works, but actual insulated covers are better.
- The 4 P’s: People, Pets, Plants, and Pipes. If you have those decorative palms or succulents that have been thriving in the 70-degree weather, bring them in Saturday night.
- Fire Safety: With the wind and the dry air behind this front, there’s a Red Flag Warning for Saturday. If you were planning a backyard bonfire, maybe wait until next week.
Is the drought finally ending?
Honestly, probably not this month. While we’re seeing better rain chances next week, we are still digging out of a massive hole. We’ve been in a drought since 2022. The 15-day outlook shows some rain, but we need a "soaker," not just "passing showers."
The real hope lies in the fall of 2026, when models suggest a shift to El Niño. That’s when the jet stream usually dips south and gives us the consistent rain we need to fill up the Edwards Aquifer. For now, we take what we can get.
Actionable Steps for the San Antonio Freeze:
- Saturday Evening: Wrap your outdoor faucets and turn off your irrigation system (you don't want an ice rink on your driveway).
- Sunday Morning: Check on elderly neighbors. The City is opening warming centers at libraries if anyone needs a place to stay warm.
- Tuesday/Wednesday: Keep an umbrella in the car. It’s not going to be a washout, but that South Texas drizzle is enough to make the I-35 commute a mess.
- Plant Care: Cover your sensitive greens by Saturday sunset; once the wind dies down, the "radiational cooling" will drop temps fast.
This 15-day window is basically the "winter" we've been missing. It's short, it's sharp, and it'll probably be back to 75 degrees before you can finish your hot cocoa. But for this weekend, at least, it’s finally jacket weather in San Antonio.