Honestly, if you’ve lived in Western New York for more than a week, you know the drill. You check the weather forecast Rochester NY expecting a nice, predictable winter day, and instead, you get a chaotic mix of lake effect bands, wind chills that bite through three layers of wool, and a sun that stays hidden for weeks.
Right now, Rochester is sitting at a crisp 23°F. It’s "mostly cloudy," which is basically the official city motto from December to March. But don't let that 23-degree number fool you. With the southwest wind kicking in at 10 mph, the real feel is actually closer to 12°F.
It's cold. Really cold.
✨ Don't miss: Why Everyone Is Still Searching For The Brian Thompson UnitedHealthcare Shot Full Video
The Lake Effect Machine Never Sleeps
Most people from outside the 585 think snow just falls from the sky like a Hallmark movie. Local experts at the National Weather Service in Buffalo know better. They track the "fetch"—that’s the distance cold air travels over the relatively warm waters of Lake Ontario.
Today, Sunday, January 18, 2026, we’re looking at a high of 23°F and a low of 18°F. But the real story is tonight.
There’s a 25% chance of snow showers after dark. While 25% sounds low, in Rochester, that often means one neighborhood gets a dusting while another—likely closer to Irondequoit or Webster—gets a localized burst that makes the morning commute a headache.
Why the Forecast Changes So Fast
The lake doesn't freeze. Because Lake Ontario stays open, it acts like a giant humidifier for every Arctic blast that swings down from Canada.
- Wind direction is everything. A slight shift from southwest to west-northwest can move a heavy snow band from the Thruway right into downtown.
- Elevation matters. If you're heading south toward the Bristol Hills, the "upslope flow" can squeeze out extra inches of powder that the airport sensors never even see.
- Humidity is high. Today it’s at 53%, which makes that cold air feel "wet" and heavy. It’s the kind of cold that gets into your bones.
Looking Ahead: M.L. King Day and Beyond
If you’re planning to be out for the holiday tomorrow, keep the scraper handy. The weather forecast Rochester NY for Monday shows snow showers becoming much more likely in the afternoon.
We’re talking a 70% chance of precipitation with wind gusts potentially hitting 38 mph. That’s enough to cause some serious blowing and drifting on Route 104 and the 490.
Tuesday looks even more brutal. Highs might struggle to get out of the teens, and wind chills could drop well below zero. It’s a classic Rochester "deep freeze" cycle.
💡 You might also like: Would Biden Have Won? What Most People Get Wrong About the 2024 Rematch
Pro Tips for Surviving the Week
Don’t just trust the app on your phone. Those often use global models that miss the micro-climates created by the Finger Lakes and Lake Ontario.
- Keep the tank half full. Condensation in your gas tank can freeze when temps drop to 18°F tonight.
- Check the UV index. It’s a 1 today. You won’t get a tan, but the glare off fresh snow can still be killer on the eyes while driving.
- Watch the wind. A 11 mph southwest wind is steady, but those gusts tomorrow are what will knock power lines or branches down.
Basically, stay tucked in if you can. If you have to head out toward Greece or Henrietta tonight, watch for those quick-forming snow showers. They aren't "major storms," but they’re exactly what causes those 20-car pileups on the Inner Loop.
Check your tires, grab an extra pair of gloves, and remember: spring is only... well, let's not talk about how far away spring is. Just keep the salt bucket by the door.