So, you’re looking at the sky in Monroe County and wondering if you should actually trust that little app on your phone. Honestly, Rochester weather is a different beast. If you've lived here long enough, you know the drill: the "official" forecast says one thing, but Lake Ontario usually has its own plans.
Right now, as of late night January 15, 2026, it is 14°F out there. If you step outside, it’s going to feel way worse—the "feels like" temperature is sitting at a biting -0°F.
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Basically, the wind is the culprit. We've got a steady 15 mph breeze coming in from the west. It’s mostly cloudy, and while the chance of snow is technically low at 12% right this second, anyone who’s ever driven down Ridge Road knows that can change in about four minutes.
The Lake Effect Crapshoot
The thing about a weather forecast rochester ny hourly search is that it often misses the hyper-local chaos of the "lake effect machine."
Here is the deal: Lake Ontario doesn’t usually freeze. Cold air from Canada screams across that relatively warm water, picks up moisture, and then just dumps it on us. It’s localized. You might be getting buried in Webster while your cousin in Henrietta is seeing literal sunshine.
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For today, January 15, the high was only 21°F, and we’re heading toward a low of 12°F. Throughout the day, we had about a 45% chance of snow, which drops slightly to 35% overnight. It’s not a blizzard, but it’s that annoying, constant light snow that makes the 490 a nightmare.
Why the "Hourly" Part Matters
Most people just check the daily high and low. Big mistake. In Rochester, the hourly trend tells you when the wind shifts.
If that wind moves from west to northwest, the snow bands shift. A west wind at 14 mph (which is what we’re seeing today) generally keeps the heaviest stuff just north or east of the city center.
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- Current Humidity: 84% (That's why the air feels so heavy and cold).
- UV Index: 0 (Not like you’d see the sun anyway).
- Visibility: It’s been hovering around 1 to 2 miles depending on the flurries.
Surviving the January Slump
January is statistically our cloudiest month. We get about 68% cloud cover on average. You’re basically living in a Tupperware container for 31 days.
The National Weather Service notes that about half of our annual snowfall comes from lake effect events rather than big, organized storms. That means the "hourly" forecast is actually more important than the "weekly" one. You have to watch the radar in real-time.
If you’re planning your morning commute for Friday, January 16, expect temperatures to hang around the high 20s. We’re looking at a high of 31°F tomorrow with a lingering chance of snow showers.
What to Actually Do With This Info
Look, don't just dress for the temperature. Dress for the wind chill. When it’s 14°F with a 15 mph wind, exposed skin starts to hurt.
- Check the West Wind: If the speed kicks up above 20 mph, the lake effect bands will move further inland.
- Watch the "Feels Like": That -0°F reading isn't a glitch; it's a warning for your car battery.
- Tire Pressure: These 10-degree drops will trigger your sensor. Don't panic, just fill 'em up.
The "mostly cloudy" condition we’re seeing right now is likely to stick around through the night. If you’re heading out, the west wind is going to be hitting your driver-side door the whole way down the Thruway. Keep the tank at least half full—getting stuck in a lake effect band with a low fuel light is a mistake you only make once.
For the most accurate planning, keep an eye on the wind direction. A shift to the southwest usually brings a tiny bit of "warmth" (if you call 30 degrees warm), while a shift to the north means it’s time to find your heavy-duty shovel. Stay warm, Rochester.
Actionable Next Steps:
Check your vehicle's coolant and wiper fluid levels tonight, as the sustained sub-20°F temperatures will persist through the early morning hours. If you are commuting along the lake shore, expect sudden visibility drops regardless of the "mostly cloudy" general forecast.**