Winter in New York is weird. You think you've got it figured out because you saw a snowflake on your way to the subway, but then forty-eight hours later, you're unzipping your parka because it’s somehow 45 degrees. Honestly, if you're looking at a weather forecast nyc 10 day report right now, you’re probably seeing a lot of "partly cloudy" icons and wondering if you actually need to buy those heavy-duty boots or if your sneakers will survive the week.
Today is January 15, 2026. The city is currently shaking off a chilly morning where it felt like 34°F with the wind chill. But the real story is what's coming over the next week and a half.
The Saturday Snow Factor
Most people ignore the mid-range forecast until they’re standing in a slush puddle. Don't do that. Saturday, January 17, is looking like the pivot point for the week. We are tracking a 65% chance of actual, honest-to-god snow. It isn't just "flurries" this time. We’re talking about a high of 39°F that drops just enough to turn that precipitation into the white stuff during the day.
If you have plans to walk the High Line or do a weekend brunch in Brooklyn, keep an eye on the Saturday morning updates. By Sunday, the clouds stick around, but the temperature dives. We're looking at a high of only 33°F. It’s that biting, "stays in your bones" kind of cold that New Yorkers love to complain about at the bodega.
The Mid-Week Deep Freeze
Monday, January 19—Martin Luther King Jr. Day—starts a trend of clear skies and brutal lows. The sun will be out, sure. It’ll look beautiful through your window. But with a low of 15°F Monday night, it’s a trap.
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Then comes Tuesday.
Tuesday, January 20, is currently projected to be the coldest day of this 10-day stretch. The high is only 21°F. Let that sink in. The warmest it will get is eleven degrees below freezing. If you're commuting, this is the day for the thermal layers. You’ve been warned.
Why the Forecast Keeps Shifting
You might wonder why the "10-day" changes so much by the time you reach day five. It’s basically because of where New York sits. We have the Atlantic Ocean on one side and the continental landmass on the other. It’s a constant tug-of-war.
Right now, meteorologists at the National Weather Service are watching a weakening La Niña pattern. Earlier in the winter, we were seeing unseasonably warm spikes, but as we move through late January 2026, the atmospheric flow is shifting to a more "neutral" state. This transition often makes the jet stream wobble. When it wobbles, it dumps arctic air straight onto Times Square.
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- Thursday (Jan 15): Sunny, high of 40°F. Kinda breezy with 17 mph winds.
- Friday (Jan 16): Sunny and colder. High 34°F. Perfect museum weather.
- Saturday (Jan 17): The "Snow Day." High 39°F, 65% precip chance.
- Sunday (Jan 18): Cloudy and 33°F. Gray, classic NYC winter vibes.
- Monday (Jan 19): Sunny but deceptive. High 35°F, Low 15°F.
- Tuesday (Jan 20): Brutal. High 21°F. Just stay inside if you can.
The back half of the week (Wednesday through Saturday, Jan 21-24) shows a slight "recovery," if you can call it that. Temperatures crawl back into the mid-30s. We might see more snow showers by next Friday night, as the humidity levels are expected to climb back up to around 81% by Saturday the 24th.
Humidity and the "RealFeel"
In NYC, the temperature on the screen is rarely what you actually feel. Between the "canyons" of skyscrapers that create wind tunnels and the damp air coming off the Hudson, a 35-degree day can feel like 20.
Humidity is actually a major player in how miserable you feel. On January 24, for instance, the humidity is expected to hit 81%. When it’s cold and that humid, the air feels "heavy" and raw. It’s the kind of weather where your coat doesn't feel thick enough no matter how much you paid for it.
The Experts' Take
Forecasters like Matthew Villafane have noted that 2025 ended as one of the coldest Decembers in over a decade. While January 2026 started with a weirdly warm spike near 50°F last week, we are now firmly back in a below-average pattern.
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The "Bushwick Weather Guy" and other local analysts on platforms like Reddit have been tracking a "Polar Vortex wobble." Basically, the high-pressure ridge that usually keeps the coldest air trapped in Canada is stretching. When it stretches, it reaches down and grabs New York. This is exactly what’s happening for the Jan 20-22 window.
Actionable Winter Survival Tips
Don't just look at the numbers. Plan for the reality of the 10-day outlook.
- Saturday Prep: If you have a car, check your wiper fluid before the Saturday snow. The salt they’ll put down on the BQE will make your windshield a mess.
- Pipe Protection: For those in older brownstones, the Monday/Tuesday lows (14°F–15°F) are low enough to freeze pipes in poorly insulated walls. Leave a tiny drip in your faucet.
- Layering Logic: Tuesday isn't about one big coat. It’s about a base layer (merino wool is king), a sweater, and then the windbreaker or parka.
Stay ahead of the Saturday snow transition. Check the hourly breakdown on Friday night, as the timing of that 65% precipitation chance will determine if your Saturday morning involves a shovel or just an umbrella. Ensure your heating system is vetted before Monday's overnight drop to 15°F.