So, you’re looking at a winter trip to the city of seven hills. Honestly, if you're checking the weather forecast Lisbon Portugal 14 days out, you're probably seeing a lot of those little gray cloud icons and wondering if you should’ve booked a flight to the Canary Islands instead. Don't cancel your dinner reservations at that fado house just yet.
Lisbon in January is... moody. That’s the best way to put it. We're currently sitting in a stretch where the sky can’t quite decide if it wants to be a postcard or a puddle. As of tonight, January 17, 2026, it's actually pretty crisp—about 46°F with a light 5 mph breeze coming off the Tejo. If you’re out for a late-night walk in Alfama, you’ll definitely feel that humidity (it’s hovering around 88%).
The Reality of the Next Two Weeks
Forget the idea that Portugal is always a sun-drenched paradise. Right now, Lisbon is playing a game of "sunny intervals." Tomorrow, Sunday the 18th, is looking like the winner of the week with a high of 54°F and mostly clear, sunny skies. It’s the kind of day where you can sit outside at a café in Chiado with a pastel de nata, provided you've got a decent jacket on.
But things get messy fast.
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Basically, the middle of next week is looking wet. Very wet. Tuesday, January 20th, has a 65% chance of rain, and Wednesday doesn’t look much better. We're looking at highs around 59°F, which sounds "warm" to a Londoner or a New Yorker, but that 93% humidity makes it feel like the damp is soaking right into your bones.
The wind is also picking up. By Friday the 23rd and Saturday the 24th, we’re expecting gusts between 19 and 22 mph. When you combine that with the narrow, wind-tunnel streets of the Bairro Alto, umbrellas become pretty much useless. Pro tip: Bring a raincoat with a hood. Seriously. Umbrellas just end up in the trash bins after the first big gust.
What the 14-Day Outlook Actually Means for Your Plans
When you see a 14-day stretch of "light rain," most people assume it’s going to be a washout. It’s usually not. In Lisbon, winter rain often comes in short, heavy bursts followed by blindingly bright sun that reflects off the white limestone pavement (the calçada portuguesa).
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Here is the breakdown of what to expect for the rest of the month:
- The Chilly Dip: Overnight lows are staying steady between 44°F and 52°F. It won't freeze, but Portuguese houses are notoriously poorly insulated. If your Airbnb doesn't have a heater, you're going to be cold.
- The Rough Seas: The Portuguese Institute of the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA) has been keeping an eye on the coast. Earlier this week, there were yellow warnings for waves up to 5 meters. If you were planning a trip to Cascais or Cabo da Roca, check the local maritime alerts first.
- The "False Spring": Towards the end of the month, around January 26th and 27th, we might see things settle into a "partly sunny" pattern with highs of 56°F. It’s not tanning weather, but it’s perfect for walking up to the São Jorge Castle without breaking a sweat.
Why 2026 Feels Different
Climate patterns are shifting, and 2026 is showing us a more active Atlantic than usual. We’ve already seen a series of yellow warnings for heavy rain across 11 districts this month. It’s damp. It’s breezy.
But there’s a secret to enjoying the weather forecast Lisbon Portugal 14 days outlook.
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The light in Lisbon after a rainstorm is unlike anything else on earth. The air gets scrubbed clean, and the sunset over the 25 de Abril Bridge looks like a painting. Plus, the crowds are non-existent. You can actually get into the Jerónimos Monastery without waiting two hours.
Actionable Tips for the Damp Days Ahead
- Footwear is everything. Those tiled streets are slippery when dry; when they’re wet, they’re basically an ice rink. Leave the heels at home. Wear shoes with serious rubber grip.
- Layer like a pro. You’ll be cold in the shade and warm the second the sun hits you. A light wool sweater under a waterproof shell is the Lisbon uniform this time of year.
- Museum mornings. Save the Calouste Gulbenkian Museum or the MAAT for those 65% rain-chance days.
- Check the IPMA app. Local data is always more accurate than the generic weather app on your phone. If they issue an "Aviso Amarelo" (Yellow Warning), take the wind forecasts seriously.
If you're heading out this week, embrace the "saudade" vibes of a misty, rainy Lisbon. Just make sure your hotel has a good heater and your shoes have decent traction.