Honestly, if you're looking at the weather forecast in Taos New Mexico right now, you’re probably seeing a lot of "sunny" icons and thinking you’ve got it all figured out.
You don't.
Taos is a geographical rebel. It sits at roughly 6,969 feet in the high desert, where the sagebrush plains of the Rio Grande Gorge literally slam into the vertical wall of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. That 7,000-foot baseline is just the beginning; if you head up to Taos Ski Valley, you’re looking at a base elevation of 9,350 feet.
This creates a climate that is half-desert, half-alpine, and entirely unpredictable.
The current outlook for January 2026
Right now, as of Friday, January 16, it is 22°F and mostly cloudy in town. The wind is barely moving—just a 2 mph whisper from the north. But don't let the stillness fool you.
Today’s high hit 40°F, and we’re heading for a low of 16°F tonight. That’s a 24-degree swing, which is actually a "mild" day by Taos standards. Tomorrow, Saturday the 17th, the mercury is going to struggle. We're looking at a high of only 33°F with a low of 18°F, but the real story is the wind. A northwest gust at 18 mph is going to make that 33 degrees feel like a slap in the face.
Why the "300 days of sunshine" is a trap
Everyone loves to tout that Taos gets 300 days of sun. It’s true. The sky here is a deep, impossible blue that looks photoshopped. But "sunny" doesn't mean "warm."
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In the winter, that sun is a laser. At this altitude, the air is about 30% thinner than at sea level. This means there is less atmosphere to filter out UV rays. You will get a sunburn in 20 minutes while standing in 15-degree air. It also means that as soon as that sun dips behind the Mesa, the temperature drops like a rock. I’ve seen it go from 45 degrees at 4:00 PM to 10 degrees by 6:00 PM.
If you aren't carrying a "sunset layer"—a puffy jacket or a heavy wool fleece—you’re going to have a bad time.
Seasonal shifts: Monsoons and Mud
Taos doesn't really have a "spring." It has "Mud Season."
From late March through April, the snowmelt from the peaks turns the unpaved roads in areas like Des Montes or Carson into literal chocolate pudding.
Then comes the real magic: the summer monsoons.
Around July and August, the weather forecast in Taos New Mexico becomes a daily ritual of watching the clouds build over Wheeler Peak. By 2:00 PM, the sky turns charcoal. The thunder isn't a rumble; it's a crack that shakes your windows. For 30 to 45 minutes, it pours—hard, cold, refreshing rain.
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Then, it just... stops.
The clouds break, the sagebrush smells like heaven, and you get a sunset that looks like an oil painting.
What the averages don't tell you
If you look at a climate table, you’ll see an average high of 83°F in July. That sounds pleasant, right?
What the table misses is the intensity. 83 degrees at 7,000 feet feels like 95 degrees in the sun. But because the humidity is usually hovering around 20%, you don't sweat in the traditional way. Your sweat evaporates instantly. You won't feel hot and sticky; you'll just feel tired, dizzy, and suddenly realize you’ve developed a massive headache.
That’s the altitude and dehydration double-teaming you.
Quick Reality Check: Taos vs. The Mountains
| Location | Elevation | Typical Jan Low |
|---|---|---|
| Town of Taos | 6,969 ft | 13°F |
| Taos Ski Valley | 9,350 ft | 4°F |
| Wheeler Peak | 13,161 ft | -10°F+ |
Living with the "Taos Hum" and High Winds
We need to talk about the wind. Specifically, the spring winds in May and June.
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Locals call it the "crazy season." The wind can howl across the mesa at 40-50 mph for days on end. It’s a dry, relentless wind that gets into your house, your hair, and your nerves. If you're planning a visit to the Rio Grande High Bridge during a wind advisory, hold onto your phone with both hands. Or better yet, don't go.
How to actually prepare for this weather
Forget what the weather app says for a "high" of 50 degrees.
Hydration is a weather strategy. In Taos, the dry air sucks moisture out of your breath. If you aren't drinking double the water you drink at home, you’ll feel the "Taos Crud"—fatigue and a scratchy throat—within 24 hours.
Sunscreen is non-negotiable. Even in a blizzard. The snow reflects the UV rays back up at your face. I’ve seen skiers with "goggle tans" that look like actual burns because they forgot the thin air doesn't protect them.
The Layering System. Basically, you want a base layer that wicks sweat (no cotton!), a mid-layer for insulation, and a shell to block the wind. Even in the height of summer, a light hoodie is mandatory for the evenings.
Actionable Next Steps
If you are heading to Taos in the next 48 hours, here is your checklist:
- Check the wind speeds, not just the temperature. Anything over 15 mph will significantly change your gear needs.
- Buy a gallon of water as soon as you hit town. Drink it.
- Get some saline nasal spray. The 10% humidity will dry out your sinuses overnight, making you feel like you have a cold when you don't.
- If you're heading to the Ski Valley, spend at least one night in the town of Taos first to acclimate. Jumping from sea level to 9,000 feet in one day is a recipe for altitude sickness.
The weather forecast in Taos New Mexico is less of a schedule and more of a suggestion. Respect the sun, fear the wind, and always, always carry a jacket.