It’s about 7:30 in the morning on Friday, January 16, 2026, and if you’re standing outside anywhere near Fayetteville Street right now, you already know the deal. It is cold. Honestly, "cold" might be an understatement when the air is sitting at a crisp 26°F.
The wind is currently coming out of the west at about 4 mph, which doesn't sound like much until you realize it’s pushing the "feels like" temperature down to a biting 20°F. If you haven't grabbed the heavy coat yet, now is the time.
Navigating the Weather Forecast in Raleigh This Week
Raleigh weather has always been a bit of a gamble, but this particular Friday is staying pretty predictable. We’re looking at a high of 43°F today under a completely sunny sky. It’s that classic North Carolina winter trap where the sun looks warm through a window, but the air still has that sharp, Arctic edge.
Humidity is hovering around 54% this morning, but it’ll drop to about 35% as the day warms up. Basically, it’s dry, clear, and bright.
But don't get too comfortable with the sunshine. Things are shifting fast.
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By tonight, we’ll see some clouds rolling in, and the low is going to dip back down to 26°F (some local sensors are even hinting at 23°F in the lower-lying areas). The wind is also expected to pick up a bit, swinging around from the southwest at 11 mph.
That Weekend Wintry Mix
If you’ve been living in the Triangle for more than a week, you know that even the whisper of snow changes everything. Tomorrow, Saturday, January 17, is going to be a weird one. We’ll start with a high of 52°F—which feels downright tropical compared to this morning—but it’ll be cloudy all day.
By Saturday night, things get interesting. We’re looking at a 45% chance of light rain as the temperature drops toward 37°F.
Here is the part everyone talks about: Sunday morning.
The current weather forecast in Raleigh for Sunday, January 18, shows a 45% chance of a rain and snow mix. The high will only hit 41°F, and while the ground might be too warm for anything serious to stick, the National Weather Service has already put out a Hazardous Weather Outlook for central North Carolina. They’re specifically watching that window between 1 a.m. and 4 a.m. Sunday for the first flakes.
The Reality of Our "Dry" Winter
We’re actually in a bit of a weird spot climatologically. Despite the snow talk, we’ve been incredibly dry. The NC State Climate Office recently noted that Raleigh finished this past December with only 2.00 inches of rain, making it the 27th-driest on record.
Even now, as we head into mid-January 2026, a "Severe Drought" (D2) has developed across parts of the Piedmont.
Most people see the clouds and think we're fine, but our streamflows are actually very low—many sites are sitting below the 10th percentile. We need a good, soaking rain, but what we're getting instead is this "clipper" style weather that brings more wind and cold than actual moisture.
Breaking Down the Next Few Days
If you're planning your week, here's the vibe:
- Monday (MLK Day): Sunny but chilly. High of 45°F, low of 24°F. Perfect for outdoor events if you layer up.
- Tuesday: The coldest afternoon of the stretch. We might struggle to hit 34°F even with full sun.
- Wednesday: A slight rebound. High of 47°F, but it'll be mostly cloudy.
- Thursday: Rain returns. High of 52°F with a 35% chance of showers.
What You Should Actually Do
Since we’re dealing with a "feels like" of 20°F this morning and a potential wintry mess on Sunday, here’s the move.
First, check your outdoor faucets. We’ve had a few nights of sustained freezing temps now, and that's usually when the older pipes in places like Five Points or Oakwood start to complain.
Second, if you’re driving Sunday morning, just be careful on the overpasses. Even if it's just "rain and snow mix," the bridges on I-40 and I-440 always freeze faster than the actual road.
Lastly, keep an eye on the humidity levels in your house. With it being 35% outside, your indoor air is going to be incredibly dry, which is usually why everyone in Raleigh starts feeling a bit "under the weather" this time of year—it's often just dehydration and dry sinuses.
The sun is out for now, so enjoy the Vitamin D while it lasts. Just don't leave the house without a scarf.
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Next Steps for Raleigh Residents:
- Monitor Saturday night's transition: If the temperature drops faster than expected, that 37°F low could turn rain into a slicker situation.
- Hydrate: Dry winter air in the Piedmont is notorious for causing "winter itch" and respiratory irritation; keep the humidifier running.
- Check the Drought Map: Keep an eye on local water restrictions if this dry trend continues through the end of the month.