Basically, if you’re looking at your phone right now in Chemung County, you’re seeing a mess. Today, January 14, 2026, started out deceptively mild with a high of 48°F, but don't let that southern breeze fool you. By tonight, everything changes.
The weather forecast Horseheads NY is currently transitioning from a sloppy, light rain into a full-blown winter scenario. We are looking at a low of 31°F tonight with an 86% chance of snow. It’s that classic Upstate New York "bait and switch" where you leave the house in a light jacket and come home needing a shovel.
The 10-Day Outlook: Brace for the Arctic Push
Honestly, the next few days are going to be a reality check for anyone who thought this winter was staying "mild." Starting tomorrow, Thursday, January 15, the temperature takes a nose dive. We’re talking a high of only 28°F and a low of 16°F. Those west winds at 15 mph are going to make the walk from the parking lot to the Arnot Mall feel significantly more miserable than the thermometer suggests.
Here is the raw deal for the week ahead:
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- Friday (Jan 16): More snow showers. High of 28°F. It’s going to stay gray.
- Saturday (Jan 17): A slight "warm" up to 36°F, but with a 45% chance of snow showers during the day.
- Sunday (Jan 18): Things get serious. The high drops to 24°F and the low hits 14°F.
- The Deep Freeze: Monday and Tuesday (Jan 19-20) are looking brutal. We are forecasting highs of 24°F and 14°F respectively, with Tuesday night bottoming out at a bone-chilling 7°F.
If you've got outdoor pets or sensitive plumbing, this is your warning. That 7-degree mark is where things start to break.
Why Horseheads Weather Is So Hard to Predict
You’ve probably noticed that Elmira/Corning Regional Airport (KELM) often reports something totally different than what’s happening in your backyard. There’s a reason for that. Horseheads sits in a bit of a geographical "sweet spot" (or sour spot, depending on how much you hate slush).
We are tucked into the Southern Tier where the terrain creates micro-climates. A "clipper" system coming off the Great Lakes might dump three inches on Big Flats but only leave a dusting in the village. Or, a coastal storm pulls moisture north, and the valley floor stays rain while the ridges in Veteran and Catlin get slammed with ice.
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Local experts like the team at the National Weather Service in Binghamton frequently point out that the "valley effect" can trap cold air. This means even if the regional forecast says it's warming up, Horseheads might stay stubbornly frozen for an extra four hours, turning your morning commute on Route 17/I-86 into a skating rink.
Surviving the "January Thaw" Myth
People talk about the January thaw like it's a guaranteed vacation from winter. It isn't. Statistically, the average high in Horseheads for January is 33°F, with a low of 17°F. While we hit 48°F today, that is an anomaly, not the new trend.
The National Weather Service’s 2025-26 winter outlook actually favored slightly above-normal temperatures for the East Coast due to a weak La Niña, but as we’re seeing this week, "above normal" still means freezing. La Niña winters in the Southern Tier tend to be more variable. You get these wild swings—two days of rain followed by a "Siberian Express" arctic blast.
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Actionable Steps for the Next 48 Hours
Don't just check the weather forecast Horseheads NY and go back to sleep. There are things you need to do before that Tuesday night low of 7°F hits.
- Check Your Tires Now: Cold air causes tire pressure to drop. If your "low tire" light isn't on yet, it will be by Monday. Fill them up to the recommended PSI (usually found on the inside of your driver-side door) while it’s still 40 degrees out.
- The Half-Tank Rule: Never let your gas tank drop below half during a Southern Tier January. If you get stuck on the highway due to a multi-car pileup (common on the I-86 bridge near Elmira), you need that fuel to keep the heater running.
- Winterize the "Hidden" Pipes: Most people remember the indoor pipes, but check your outdoor spigots. If you left a garden hose attached, the ice will back up into the pipe and burst it inside your wall. Disconnect them today.
- Emergency Kit Refresh: Ensure you have a bag of sand or kitty litter in the trunk. If you hit a patch of black ice on a side road, that traction could be the difference between getting home and calling a tow truck.
The shift from today's rain to tonight's snow is going to create a layer of "flash freeze" ice under the snow. Tomorrow morning's commute will be deceptive. Be careful out there.