So, you’re looking at the weather forecast Gulf Shores AL 15 day and wondering if you should pack a swimsuit or a parka. Honestly, Gulf Shores in mid-January is a bit of a mood ring. One day you’re sitting on the balcony at the Hangout with a light breeze, and the next, you’re watching the sea oats whip around in a 20-mph wind from the north.
The current outlook for the next two weeks is a textbook example of "Alabama Winter." We're coming off a weirdly warm start to 2026—about 14 degrees warmer than this time last year—but the honeymoon phase is hitting a speed bump. If you're arriving this week, expect a roller coaster. We’ve got a cold weather advisory kicking in right now, dropping those overnight lows into the mid-30s.
The Breakdown: What’s Actually Happening?
Basically, we are in the middle of a pattern shift. The first half of this 15-day window is dominated by a weakening Polar Vortex. That sounds scary, but for us, it just means the "wall" holding back the cold air is cracking.
The First 7 Days: Layers are your best friend.
Right now, through January 21, the highs are struggling to break 60°F. Thursday and Friday look gorgeous and sunny, but "sunny" doesn't mean "warm." You’ll see highs around 53°F to 57°F. If you are out on the pier, that wind will make it feel more like 48°F.
- Jan 15-16: Sunny but windy. Highs in the low 50s.
- Jan 17-18: A few showers move in. It’s that misty, gray Gulf rain that makes the sand look like concrete. Highs creep up to 62°F, but it'll be damp.
- Jan 19-21: The sun returns, but the air stays crisp. Perfect for a long walk on the beach if you have a windbreaker.
The Second Week: A Surprising Warm-Up.
This is where the weather forecast Gulf Shores AL 15 day gets interesting. Around January 22, the wind shifts back to the south. This "southerly flow" brings the humidity and warmth back from the Caribbean. We are looking at a spike where temperatures might hit 70°F by Saturday the 24th.
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But there is a catch. Big warm-ups in January almost always bring rain. The end of the month looks like it’s going to be pretty wet, with some heavy rain possible around January 26 and 27.
The Humidity Factor Nobody Mentions
If you're from up north, you probably think 60°F sounds like a heatwave. It’s not. The humidity in Gulf Shores rarely drops below 70%, even in winter. That "wet" air carries the cold right into your bones. It’s a different kind of chill.
Local experts often point out that the dew point is the real number to watch. Right now, it’s sitting in the 40s, which is quite dry for us. When that number starts climbing back into the 60s next week, the air will feel "heavy" again. This is also when the famous "sea fog" happens. If the air gets warm but the water is still cold, the whole beach disappears in a thick white blanket. It’s eerie and cool, but not great for your sunrise photos.
Can You Still Go to the Beach?
Yes. Do people swim? Usually, no.
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The water temperature at Alabama Point is hovering around 63°F. For a local, that’s "ice water." For a surfer in a 4/3mm wetsuit, it's just another Tuesday. If you just want to sit in the sand, January is actually the best time because the crowds are non-existent. You can have a mile of white quartz sand all to yourself.
Predicting the Unpredictable
The weather forecast Gulf Shores AL 15 day is never set in stone because the Gulf of Mexico is an engine of chaos. According to the latest data from the Almanac and local NWS stations in Mobile, this winter is trending "warmer than normal" overall, but with sharp, 48-hour cold snaps.
| Date Range | Expected Highs | Expected Lows | Vibe Check |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15 - Jan 18 | 53°F - 62°F | 35°F - 48°F | Chilly & Breezy |
| Jan 19 - Jan 22 | 57°F - 64°F | 36°F - 52°F | Crisp & Clear |
| Jan 23 - Jan 28 | 65°F - 70°F | 55°F - 62°F | Warm & Rainy |
We’re seeing a roughly 30% to 90% chance of rain toward the end of this period. If you’re planning an outdoor wedding or a big fishing trip for the last week of January, have a "Plan B" that involves a roof.
Why Most People Get Gulf Shores Weather Wrong
Most visitors look at the high temperature and pack accordingly. Big mistake.
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The temperature can drop 15 degrees the second the sun goes behind a cloud. Or the wind can shift from the south (balmy) to the north (biting) in a matter of minutes. In Gulf Shores, you aren't just dressing for the temperature; you're dressing for the wind direction.
Pro Tip: Download a wind-tracking app. If the wind is coming from the North (N) or Northwest (NW), it's coming over the land and will be dry and cold. If it’s from the South (S) or Southeast (SE), it’s coming off the water and will be humid and much warmer.
Actionable Strategy for Your Visit
Don't let the "rain" icons on your phone scare you away. Most of the time, "rain" in the weather forecast Gulf Shores AL 15 day means a fast-moving front that clears out in two hours.
- Pack "The Coast Guard" Outfit: A base layer T-shirt, a fleece or hoodie, and a lightweight rain shell. You will likely wear all three at 8:00 AM and be down to the T-shirt by 2:00 PM.
- Watch the UV Index: Even when it’s 55°F and cloudy, that white sand reflects UV rays like a mirror. You can get a "winter burn" faster than you’d think.
- Check the Tide: High tide combined with those 20-mph south winds next week could mean some minor overwash on West Beach. It's a great time for shell hunting, though.
- Book the Indoor Stuff Early: If that Jan 26-27 rain holds true, the Alabama Gulf Coast Zoo and the local boutiques in Foley will be packed.
Focus on the sunnier window between Jan 19 and Jan 23 for your outdoor adventures. The air will be clear, the humidity low, and the sunsets over Mobile Bay will be that deep, fiery purple you only get in the winter. Just keep an eye on that Polar Vortex—she's a bit fickle this year.