Honestly, if you’re looking at the weather forecast for Phoenix Arizona right now, you might be wondering if the calendar is lying to you. It's mid-January. Traditionally, this is the time of year when Valley residents are supposed to be digging out their "heavy" jackets—you know, the ones that barely pass for a spring coat in Chicago—and complaining about the morning frost on their windshields.
But look outside.
As of Wednesday, January 14, 2026, Phoenix is currently sitting under a ridge of high pressure that has basically turned winter into a suggestion rather than a season. We aren't just seeing "mild" weather. We are seeing temperatures hitting the high 70s and even touching 80°F in some parts of the East Valley. It is strange. It is dry. And for anyone who moved here for the "crisp desert air," it’s a bit of a reality check.
Breaking Down the Current Weather Forecast for Phoenix Arizona
If you’re planning your week, don’t bother looking for your umbrella. The National Weather Service (NWS) in Phoenix has been tracking a persistent dry pattern that shows zero signs of letting up. Today, January 14, we hit a high of 80°F. To put that in perspective, the "normal" high for this date is usually around 68°F. We are nearly 12 degrees above where we should be.
Here is what the next few days look like at a glance:
- Thursday, Jan 15: Expect a high of 77°F and a low of 53°F. It’ll be partly sunny, but don't expect any rain despite a tiny 10% "mercy" chance in the models.
- Friday, Jan 16: Sunny skies return in full force. We’re looking at 76°F for the high and 51°F for the low.
- The Weekend (Jan 17-18): Saturday and Sunday are going to be carbon copies of each other. Highs in the mid-70s, lows around 50°F.
It’s perfect patio weather, sure. But it’s also remarkably consistent. Usually, January brings at least one or two "cold" fronts that drop the mercury into the 50s for a day or two. Not this year. The jet stream is tucked way up north, leaving the Desert Southwest in a warm, stagnant bubble.
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Is the "Phoenix Freeze" Officially History?
There’s a guy named Chris Dunn, a local meteorologist who has been sounding the alarm on a phenomenon we’re all living through: the disappearing freeze. If you look at the data from Sky Harbor International Airport, the trend is pretty wild. Historically, Phoenix would see about half a dozen nights a year where the temperature hit 32°F or lower.
Lately? We’re lucky to get one.
In fact, over the last decade, we've had multiple winters where the thermometer never officially touched the freezing mark. This is largely due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. All the concrete, asphalt, and rooftops in the sprawling Valley act like a giant battery. They soak up the sun all day and then bleed that heat back into the air all night. While places like Queen Creek or Cave Creek might still see a bit of frost, the urban core is effectively staying "tropical" compared to the surrounding desert.
What Most People Get Wrong About January Rain
When people search for the weather forecast for Phoenix Arizona, they usually expect a dry desert. But January and February are actually supposed to be our "second" rainy season. We rely on winter storms—those big, sweeping Pacific fronts—to soak the ground and fill the reservoirs.
This year, La Niña is being a bit of a jerk.
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Because we are in a weak La Niña pattern, the storm tracks are being pushed further north toward the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies. That leaves Arizona high and dry. The Old Farmer’s Almanac and the Climate Prediction Center both forecasted a warmer and drier winter for 2026, and so far, they’re hitting the nail on the head.
We’ve only seen about 0.04 inches of rain so far this month, which is practically nothing. Last year was similarly dry until a random burst in March, but we can't count on that as a "save." If we don't get the winter soak, the upcoming monsoon season has a lot of heavy lifting to do.
The Impact on Your Yard and Your Health
You might love not needing a sweater, but your citrus trees are probably confused. When we have 80-degree days in January, plants start thinking it’s springtime. They might start budding or flowering too early. The danger here is that if a stray "polar plunge" actually does happen in late February, it’ll kill off all that new growth because the trees aren't dormant anymore.
And then there's the dust.
Without rain to "scrub" the air, the particulate matter in the Valley starts to build up. If you've been feeling a bit more congested lately or your car is constantly covered in a fine layer of gray film, that’s why. The stagnation is real.
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Looking Ahead: Will it Cool Down?
The long-range weather forecast for Phoenix Arizona through the end of January 2026 suggests more of the same. We might see a slight dip into the low 70s by next Wednesday, Jan 21, but that’s still well above average.
The big question everyone asks is: "When will it actually feel like winter?"
The honest answer? Maybe never. At least not in the way we remember it from twenty years ago. We are seeing a "new normal" where 75°F is the baseline for January. While the record high for today (Jan 14) remains 81°F set back in 2000, we are consistently flirting with those records now rather than just occasionally bumping into them.
Actionable Next Steps for Valley Residents
Since the weather is sticking to this warm, dry script, there are a few things you should actually be doing right now instead of just enjoying the sun:
- Adjust Your Irrigation: Even though it’s "winter," the 80-degree heat is evaporating moisture faster than usual. Check your soil. If it’s bone dry two inches down, your plants might need a bit more water than a typical January schedule suggests.
- Prep for the "Snap": Don't let the heat fool you into throwing away your frost blankets. February can still throw a curveball. Keep those supplies in the garage just in case we get a random 30-degree night.
- Check Air Filters: With the air stagnation and lack of rain, your home’s HVAC filters are working overtime to catch desert dust. Swap them out now to keep your indoor air quality high.
- Hike Early: If you're hitting Camelback or Piestewa Peak, remember that 80°F in the sun feels more like 90°F on the rock. Bring more water than you think you need; the low humidity will dehydrate you before you even feel sweaty.
The desert is changing, and this January is a perfect example of the shift. Enjoy the sun, but don't forget that even a "warm" winter has its own set of rules.
Actionable Insight: Monitor the NWS Phoenix "Area Forecast Discussion" for technical updates on potential pressure shifts. If the high-pressure ridge breaks by the last week of January, we may finally see the return of the 60-degree daytime highs that local ecosystems rely on for stability.