Honestly, if you're living in Murrieta right now, you've probably given up on that "winter aesthetic" everyone else in the country is posting about on Instagram. While the East Coast is basically turning into an ice cube, we’re out here dealing with a weather forecast for Murrieta that feels more like a late spring break.
It's weirdly warm. Like, 79°F warm.
The Immediate Reality: Saturday, January 17, 2026
If you’re stepping out today, don't even bother with the heavy coat. We’re looking at a high of 79°F under partly sunny skies. It's that classic Inland Empire vibe where the sun hits your face and you forget it’s literally the middle of January.
The humidity is sitting at a bone-dry 27%, which is great for your hair but kinda terrible for your skin. Keep the moisturizer handy. Tonight, things take a sharp turn—standard for the valley. We’ll drop down to about 41°F with some clouds moving in. That’s a nearly 40-degree swing. It’s the kind of weather that makes you change your outfit three times a day just to stay comfortable.
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What’s Happening This Week?
Usually, Murrieta averages around 65°F in January. We are blowing past that.
Tomorrow, Sunday, January 18, keeps the momentum going with a high of 77°F. It’s basically a repeat of today, just a tiny bit cooler and still partly sunny. If you’ve got plans for a hike at the Santa Rosa Plateau or just a backyard BBQ, you’re in the clear.
The "warm streak" holds steady:
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- Monday (MLK Day): 77°F and full-on sunny.
- Tuesday: Another 77°F day. It’s like the thermometer is stuck.
- Wednesday: A slight dip to 76°F, but honestly, you won't feel the difference.
Basically, we're in a high-pressure bubble that's blocking all the cool, wet stuff from the north.
Is Rain Ever Coming Back?
Short answer: Not until next weekend.
We’ve seen some whispers of a shift coming. By Friday, January 23, the clouds start to get serious. We’re looking at a high of 67°F—which feels like a "real" winter day around here—and a 20% chance of rain at night.
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The real action happens Saturday, January 24. The forecast is calling for a 75% chance of rain at night. The high will only hit 63°F. It’s not a massive storm, but it’s enough to finally justify that umbrella you’ve had rolling around in your trunk since October.
Why Does Murrieta Get These Spikes?
It’s mostly the Santa Ana wind patterns. When that northwest wind kicks in—even at a light 6 mph like we're seeing today—it compresses and warms up as it drops into the valley.
Experts at the National Weather Service often point to these high-pressure ridges as the culprit for our "January Thaw." While the rest of the world talks about the Polar Vortex, we’re over here dealing with a UV index of 3. It’s low, but if you’re out for hours, you’ll still feel it.
Actionable Steps for the Week
- The Layer Strategy: Since it’s 79°F at 2 PM and 41°F at 2 AM, the "hoodie over a t-shirt" move is your best friend.
- Water the Garden: With humidity this low (27%), your plants are thirsty. Don't let the "winter" label fool you; the soil is drying out fast.
- Prep for Saturday: If you have outdoor plans for the 24th, have a backup. That 75% rain chance is the highest we've seen in weeks.
- Check Your Tires: These big temp swings change your tire pressure. If that little light pops up on your dash on a cold morning, that's why.
Enjoy the warmth while it lasts. By next Sunday, January 25, we’ll be back in the 60s with damp ground and grey skies.