Minnesota weather is a fickle beast. One day you're scraping thick ice off a windshield in sub-zero winds, and the next, you’re wondering if you actually need a parka to walk the dog. Honestly, if you’ve lived here long enough, you know the weather forecast for Minnesota is less of a schedule and more of a suggestion.
Right now, we are staring down the barrel of a classic mid-January stretch. Historically, this is the deepest, darkest part of the freezer. Statistically, the period between January 14 and January 21 represents the absolute coldest week of the year for the Twin Cities and the surrounding North Star State. But 2026 is throwing us a few curveballs.
The state is currently caught in the middle of a shifting La Niña pattern. Earlier this month, we saw record-breaking rainfall—yes, rain in January—that washed away significant snowpack in the southern parts of the state. If you were in La Farge or near the Rochester area around January 8, you saw totals topping two inches. That is unheard of. It basically shattered the old January daily records by over an inch.
What the Next 10 Days Look Like
If you're looking at the weather forecast for Minnesota for the upcoming week, keep your layers handy. We are moving out of that weirdly balmy, rainy phase and back into the "real" winter.
Wednesday started with a blustery chill, but the real impact arrives Thursday afternoon. A Weather Impact Alert has been issued as a new system moves through. We’re looking at highs near 29°F before the floor drops out. By Friday, the wind picks up from the West-Northwest at 20 mph, and the temperature begins its freefall.
Saturday and Sunday are going to be "stay inside and make chili" days. We’re talking highs of 11°F and 13°F, respectively. But it’s the overnight lows that’ll get you. Expect -4°F in the metro, and likely much colder if you’re up toward Duluth or the Iron Range.
The early part of next week stays frigid. Monday, January 19, looks particularly brutal with a projected high of only 2°F. It’s a sharp reminder that despite the rainy start to the month, Minnesota hasn't forgotten how to be Minnesota.
The La Niña Factor and Long-Range Weirdness
Why is this happening? Forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) have been tracking a weak La Niña all season. Usually, La Niña means "cold and snowy" for us. However, "weak" is the operative word here.
👉 See also: Why We Are Hearing So Many Cries for Water Right Now
When the signal is weak, it gets messy.
Meteorologists like Mike Augustyniak and the team at the Climate Prediction Center have noted that while the three-month trend skews colder, we’re seeing massive variability. We are currently in a transition phase. There is roughly a 61% chance we move into an "ENSO-neutral" state between now and March.
What does that mean for your driveway?
- Snowfall is currently above average: As of late December, the Twin Cities had already logged over 22 inches of snow. That's nearly triple what we had at the same point in 2024.
- Persistence of Snowpack: Because the ground was frozen solid before the recent rains, much of the moisture stayed on top or soaked in without causing massive flash floods, but it did make the ice situation treacherous.
- February Outlook: The "Almanac" and long-range models suggest February might actually swing back to being mild.
Why the Forecast for Minnesota Is Hard to Predict
Predicting Minnesota weather is basically like trying to herd cats. You have the Gulf moisture fighting with the Arctic air masses, and we’re right in the collision zone.
Expert analysis from the NWS Twin Cities office suggests that since the 1990s, our "La Niña winters" have actually trended wetter. We don’t just get the dry, powdery "Alberta Clippers" as much anymore. We get these heavy, wet systems that can dump 10 inches of slush or, as we saw last week, record-breaking rain.
This creates a massive headache for city services. St. Paul recently launched an odd-even parking pilot program just to deal with the logistics of plowing. When the weather fluctuates between 35°F and -5°F, that slush turns into concrete. If the city doesn't get to it during the "melt" window, it’s stuck there until April.
Managing the Mid-Winter Slump
Since we know the weather forecast for Minnesota includes a serious cold snap through January 21, you need to prep. This isn't just about wearing a hat.
Check your tire pressure. When the temp drops from 30°F to -4°F in 48 hours, your "low pressure" light is going to scream. It's simple physics. For every 10-degree drop, you lose about a pound of pressure.
💡 You might also like: Mega Millions July 11 2025: Why the Jackpot Hype is Actually Justified
Also, watch your pets. With the record rain followed by a flash freeze, the ground is a sheet of ice covered by a dusting of new snow. It’s a recipe for torn ACLs in dogs and slipped disks in humans.
Actionable Winter Steps
Don't let the "January Thaw" fool you into complacency. Winter is far from over.
- Seal the Leaks: If you felt a draft during the rainy stretch, it’s going to be a gale-force arctic blast this weekend. Use heavy curtains or even a rolled-up towel at the base of doors.
- Salt Early: With the temps dropping Friday night, any standing water from melting piles will turn to black ice. Get the grit down before the sun goes down Friday.
- Battery Health: If your car battery is more than three years old, a 2°F Monday morning will be its death knell. Get it tested at an auto parts store today while it's still "warm" out.
- Humidity Control: As it gets colder, your indoor air will get bone-dry. Aim for 30% to 40% humidity to keep your skin from cracking and to keep your hardwood floors from shrinking.
Minnesota winters are a marathon, not a sprint. We’ve survived the rain, now we just have to survive the deep freeze. Keep the scraper in the car and the emergency kit in the trunk. February is coming, and with the way 2026 is going, it'll probably be 50 degrees or a blizzard. Or both.