You’ve probably heard that the "White City" is hot. Honestly, that’s a massive understatement. If you're looking at a weather forecast for Merida, you aren't just looking at numbers on a screen; you're looking at a lifestyle dictated by the sun. Right now, on this Thursday, January 15, 2026, the city is sitting at a comfortable 72°F. It feels like 76°F because of that sneaky Yucatecan humidity, but compared to the triple-digit madness of May, this is basically a cold front for the locals.
The Reality of the Merida Forecast
People think they can just pack a light sweater and be fine. Kinda. But the truth is more complex. Today’s high is hitting 78°F with a low of 64°F. The sky is partly sunny, and there's a tiny 15% chance of rain both day and night. It's the kind of day where you want to be at a cafe in Santa Lucia, not hiding from a downpour.
The wind is coming out of the north at 14 mph. In Merida, we call these northern winds "Nortes." They are the only thing that keeps the city from feeling like a literal sauna in the winter months.
Why the "Hottest Month" is a Trap
Everyone warns you about May. They aren't lying. It’s the hottest month, with average highs of 100°F. But here’s the thing: April is actually the windiest. If you’re visiting in April, you get hit with 19 mph gusts that kick up the dust from the limestone streets.
🔗 Read more: Saline County Missouri History Map: Why the Old Borders and Ghost Towns Still Matter Today
- Today (Jan 15): High 78°F, Low 64°F. Partly sunny.
- Tomorrow (Jan 16): High 80°F, Low 60°F. Clearer skies.
- Saturday (Jan 17): High 85°F, Low 60°F. The heat starts creeping back.
Humidity is the real boss here. Even when the thermometer says it’s 80°F, the 59% humidity today makes it feel heavier. By Sunday, that humidity is jumping to 68%, and the rain chances go up to 25%.
Survival Secrets for the Yucatan Climate
Local life is basically a game of "hide from the sun." Between 11:00 am and 4:00 pm, the streets of Centro often look deserted. That’s because the UV index in Merida is brutal. Today it’s a 5, which is moderate, but in the summer, it hits 11+ regularly. You’ll see locals walking on the shady side of the street exclusively. If you cross to the sunny side, you're basically announcing you're a tourist.
The rainy season is a whole different beast. From June to October, the city gets about 80% of its annual rain. It’s not a constant drizzle. It’s a theatrical, world-ending afternoon deluge that lasts 45 minutes and then vanishes, leaving the air smelling like wet earth and even more humidity.
The Hurricane Factor
September is the wettest month, averaging 7.3 inches of rain. It’s also the peak of hurricane season. While Merida is inland and safer than the coast (places like Progreso or Cancun take the brunt), a big storm can still shut the city down. The last major scare was Hurricane Milton in late 2024, which reminded everyone why most houses here are built of solid concrete and stone.
Honestly, January is the sweet spot. You’ve got 7 hours of sunshine today. The nights actually get "chilly" (64°F feels cold when you're used to 90°F), so you might actually see a local in a light jacket.
Actionable Advice for Your Trip
If you're looking at the weather forecast for Merida and planning your week, keep Saturday in mind. It’s going to be the warmest day of the weekend at 85°F.
- Hydrate like it's your job. Don't just drink water; get an agua de limon with Chaya.
- Dress for the 15th, not the 1st. The morning starts at 64°F, but by 2 PM, that 78°F feels much hotter under the direct sun.
- Plan indoor museums for Sunday. With a 25% chance of rain and higher humidity, the air-conditioned Gran Museo del Mundo Maya is your best friend.
- Watch the UV. Even on a "partly sunny" day like today, the sun at this latitude doesn't play around.
By Monday, the temperature drops back to a high of 75°F with clear skies. It’s the perfect window for a trip to the Uxmal ruins before the humidity starts to climb again later in the week.
To stay ahead of the heat, always check the "feels like" temperature rather than the raw number. If the humidity is over 70%, add at least 5 degrees to your mental map of the day. Wear linen, stay in the shade, and embrace the afternoon siesta—it's the only way the locals have survived here for centuries.