Honestly, if you’re standing on a street corner in Midtown today, you’re probably more concerned with the slush puddle threatening your shoes than a long-range meteorological model. New York winters have this way of being both predictable and completely chaotic at the exact same time.
Today is no exception.
The weather forecast for Manhattan NY for Saturday, January 17, 2026, is basically a masterclass in "grab your umbrella, but maybe keep your boots on." Right now, it's 35°F outside. It feels like 28°F. That seven-degree gap is thanks to a 7 mph wind coming out of the southwest, which isn't exactly a gale, but it’s enough to bite through a wool coat if you’re not layered up.
We are looking at light rain currently with a high of 38°F and a low of 31°F. Humidity is sitting heavy at 78%, which is why the air feels sort of thick and damp despite the chill.
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The Snow That Everyone is Asking About
There is a lot of chatter about the white stuff. If you check the data, the chance of precipitation for the daytime today is a staggering 97%. Most of that is being categorized as snow. However, because the temperature is hovering so close to freezing ($32^\circ\text{F}$), what we are actually seeing in many parts of the borough is that messy, light rain-snow mix that makes the subway stairs a nightmare.
Tomorrow, Sunday, January 18, is looking even more like a winter postcard. We’re expecting snow showers with a high of 34°F. The chance of snow is about 45% during the day and 40% at night.
What the Next Few Days Look Like
- Monday, Jan 19: Sunny but cold. High of 32°F, low of 16°F. The wind picks up to 13 mph.
- Tuesday, Jan 20: This is the deep freeze. We’re looking at a high of only 23°F and a low of 13°F. Clear skies won't help much with the warmth.
- Wednesday, Jan 21: Partly sunny with a high of 32°F. Still freezing, basically.
Why "Feels Like" Is the Only Metric That Matters
You’ve probably noticed that the "real" temperature and the "feels like" temperature in Manhattan are rarely the same. That’s not just a quirk of your phone app.
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The "Urban Heat Island" effect is real, but so is the "Wind Tunnel" effect created by the skyscrapers. Between those glass towers, the wind accelerates. A 7 mph wind at Central Park might feel like 15 mph when you're walking past the Flatiron Building.
Humidity also plays a massive role in our winter discomfort. Today’s 78% humidity means the air is holding a lot of moisture. Damp air conducts heat away from your body faster than dry air. That’s why a 35-degree day in NYC often feels more "bone-chilling" than a 20-degree day in a drier climate like Denver.
The January 2026 Outlook
Looking at the broader trends for the month, Manhattan is currently trending slightly below its historical averages. Normally, we see highs around 39°F or 40°F this time of year. We are trailing just a few degrees behind that, which puts us in prime territory for these frequent snow-to-rain transitions.
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By the time we hit next weekend, Jan 25, things might get even more interesting with a predicted high of only 19°F. If you’re planning on being outdoors for any length of time, the window of "manageable" weather is closing fast as we head into this cold snap.
Practical Steps for Today
If you are heading out in Manhattan today, don't trust the "light rain" label. With a 97% chance of snow/rain mix, the ground is going to be slick. Waterproof footwear is non-negotiable.
Also, prepare for a sharp drop in visibility. The cloud cover is heavy and will likely stay that way through the evening. If you’re driving or even just biking, keep in mind that 35°F is the "danger zone" where bridges and overpasses freeze much faster than the standard city streets.
Check the subway schedules before you leave; these wet-snow days are notorious for "signal problems" and track delays. Basically, give yourself an extra 20 minutes to get anywhere. Stay dry and keep an eye on the Tuesday temperatures—that 13°F low is going to require the heavy-duty parkas.