You’ve felt it. That specific North Carolina chill that bites just a little harder when the humidity drops. Honestly, if you're living in or visiting the Southern Part of Heaven right now, you’re looking at a weather map that looks more like a cardiac arrest than a steady winter season. It’s wild.
Right now, as of Friday afternoon, January 16, 2026, Chapel Hill is sitting at a crisp 43°F. It’s sunny, sure. But that 10 mph wind coming from the south makes it feel more like 37°F. You’ve probably noticed how dry the air is—humidity is bottoming out at 24%. Basically, keep your moisturizer handy.
The Weather Forecast for Chapel Hill North Carolina: A Wild 48-Hour Swing
If you’re planning your Saturday morning run or a walk down Franklin Street, things are shifting. Fast. Tomorrow, January 17, we’re trading the sun for a ceiling of clouds. The temperature is actually going up, hitting a high of 53°F, which sounds great until you see the overnight low of 35°F.
There’s a 35% chance of rain tomorrow night.
Then Sunday happens.
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Sunday, January 18, is when the weather forecast for Chapel Hill North Carolina gets interesting for anyone who likes the white stuff. We’re looking at a "rain and snow" mix during the day. The high only hits 40°F, and the low is plummeting to 26°F. Most locals know that "wintry mix" in the Triangle usually means a slushy mess on the roads rather than a postcard-perfect sledding day, but with a 20% chance of snow during the daytime, it’s worth keeping an eye on.
Looking Toward Next Week: The Deep Freeze
Monday, January 19, clears up, but don't let the sun fool you. It’s going to be 44°F for the high, but the real story is Tuesday. Tuesday is shaping up to be the coldest day of the stretch. We’re looking at a high of only 34°F. That is barely above freezing during the peak of the day.
If you have outdoor pipes or sensitive plants, this is the window you need to worry about. Lows will hover around 23°F.
Wait, it gets weirder.
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By the following weekend, specifically Saturday, January 24, we’re back up to 55°F. It’s classic Carolina. You’ll need a heavy parka on Tuesday and probably just a light fleece by the next Saturday.
Beyond the Thermometer: What This Means for You
The low humidity we're seeing right now (that 24% mentioned earlier) isn't just about dry skin. It’s a fire risk indicator. In fact, some regional reports have already flagged an elevated wildfire risk due to the combination of gusty winds and dry brush. It’s not something we usually think about in January, but it’s there.
- Friday, Jan 16: Sunny, high of 43°F, low of 22°F.
- Sunday, Jan 18: Mix of rain and snow, high of 40°F, 20% precip chance.
- Tuesday, Jan 20: Sunny but freezing, high of 34°F.
- Sunday, Jan 25: Heavy rain likely, 65% chance, high of 51°F.
For those of you commuting between Chapel Hill and Durham or Raleigh, Sunday’s slush potential is the main hurdle. Northwest winds will be kicking around 7 mph, which isn't huge, but combined with the moisture, it’ll make the air feel much colder than the actual temperature.
Winter 2026 Context
Historically, Chapel Hill averages around 49°F for a high in January. We are currently trending a few degrees below that average. According to the North Carolina State Climate Office, we're coming off a December that was "divided"—chilly starts followed by warm finishes. This January seems to be following that erratic script.
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The UV index is staying low, around 0 to 2, so you don't need to worry much about sunburn, but the fluctuating pressure—moving from sunny clears to cloudy rain—is a classic trigger for sinus headaches around here.
Honestly, the best way to handle this week is layers. Heavy ones.
Don't trust the afternoon sun on Monday or Tuesday. That 34°F high on Tuesday is going to feel brutal if you're caught out without a windbreaker or a solid coat.
Your Action Plan for the Week
- Check your tires: Cold snaps like Sunday/Monday will drop your tire pressure. If that "low air" light pops on, it’s not a ghost; it’s physics.
- Hydrate: With humidity this low, you lose moisture faster than you realize.
- Sunday Prep: If you have to be on the road Sunday morning, check the local radar for that snow/rain transition. Even a little bit of slush on I-40 can turn a 20-minute drive into an hour-long ordeal.
- Plant Safety: If you’ve got early-blooming plants or outdoor containers, Tuesday’s 23°F low is the danger zone. Move them inside or cover them by Monday night.
The weather forecast for Chapel Hill North Carolina shows a town currently caught between a dry freeze and a damp slush. Stay warm out there, and keep an eye on that Sunday afternoon transition.