Honestly, if you've lived in West County for more than a week, you know the drill. You wake up and it's basically a frozen tundra, then by lunch, you’re wondering if you actually needed that heavy parka. It's just how we live here.
But right now? Things are getting weird.
The weather forecast for Ballwin Missouri is currently flashing some numbers that’ll make you want to hibernate. We’re talking a "feels like" situation that’s currently hovering around 21°F, even though the actual air temperature is 29°F. That 9 mph wind coming out of the south is doing just enough to bite through your layers.
It’s nighttime in Ballwin, it’s cloudy, and there is a tiny, 10% chance of snow flurries just to keep things spicy.
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The Rollercoaster: What to Expect Through the Weekend
If you were planning on a quiet, predictable week, I’ve got some bad news. We are currently in a classic Missouri weather "dip and dive."
Tomorrow, Friday, January 16, 2026, is going to be a total mess. We’re looking at a high of 46°F, which sounds great until you realize it’s bringing a 20% chance of rain and snow. It’s that slushy, grey mix that makes Manchester Road a nightmare. If you're commuting, just plan for the worst. The wind is picking up too—gusts from the west at 15 mph.
Then, the floor drops out.
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By Saturday, the high is only hitting 26°F. That is a 20-degree drop in 24 hours. Welcome to January in the 63011 and 63021. Saturday night is going to be brutal with a low of 11°F. If you haven't dripped your faucets yet, this might be the night to start thinking about it.
Looking Ahead: The 10-Day Outlook
- Sunday, Jan 18: A bit of a recovery. Partly sunny with a high of 36°F. Still freezing at night (12°F).
- Monday, Jan 19: Bright sun, but don’t let it fool you. High of 25°F. It’s that "crisp" cold that hurts your face.
- Tuesday, Jan 20: Finally seeing the 40s again. High of 41°F with clear skies.
- The Mid-Week Turn: Wednesday and Thursday (Jan 21-22) look surprisingly mild with highs in the mid-to-high 40s.
Why Ballwin Weather Always Feels "Different"
You ever notice how the forecast for St. Louis looks one way, but your backyard in Ballwin looks totally different? It’s not just your imagination. We’ve got a lot of varied elevation and "micro-climates" happening between Castlewood State Park and the higher ridges near Vlasis Park.
Historically, January is our toughest month. The average high is usually around 41°F, but we rarely stay at the average. We either have these weird 55°F "false spring" days or we’re stuck in the teens. According to the Missouri Climate Center, we’re currently in a period where the northern air masses are winning the tug-of-war.
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Survival Tips for the Next 48 Hours
Don't just stare at the thermometer. Do something about it.
First, check your tires. These temperature swings of 30+ degrees cause your tire pressure to fluctuate like crazy. If that little light on your dashboard is on, it’s because the air in your tires literally shrunk.
Second, watch the wind chill. On Saturday, that 26°F high is going to feel closer to 10°F because of the 15 mph winds. If you're taking the dog for a walk at Vlasis, keep it short.
Finally, plan for the Friday "Mix." Rain and snow together is the most dangerous driving condition we get. It's slicker than pure snow and harder to see. If you can work from home Friday morning, honestly, just do it.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Drip your faucets Friday and Saturday night to prevent pipe bursts during the 11°F lows.
- Check your car’s antifreeze levels and tire pressure before the Friday morning commute.
- Salt your driveway early Thursday evening before the 10% snow chance or the Friday moisture hits and freezes over.