Honestly, if you've lived in Leake County for more than a week, you know the drill. One minute you're wearing a light jacket at the Square, and the next, you're digging through the hall closet for that heavy wool coat you swore you wouldn't need this year. Carthage weather is fickle. It’s moody. And right now, the weather forecast Carthage MS is showing us exactly why you can't just look at a single number on your phone and call it a day.
As of late Friday night, January 16, 2026, the air has that sharp, damp bite to it. The current temperature is sitting at 48°F, but with the northwest wind kicking at 9 mph, it actually feels closer to 43°F. Humidity is high—86%—which explains that heavy feeling in the air. We’re coming off a day that hit 65°F with heavy rain, only to watch the bottom drop out as we head into a much colder weekend.
The weekend shift: Saturday and Sunday outlook
Saturday, January 17, is basically a reality check. We're looking at a high of 50°F under mostly sunny skies. Sounds decent, right? Don't let the sun fool you. That northwest wind is sticking around at 10 mph. The real story is Saturday night. We are staring down a low of 25°F.
That is a hard freeze.
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If you haven't wrapped your pipes or brought in the sensitive plants yet, tonight is the deadline. Sunday doesn't offer much of a warmup either, with a high of only 43°F. It’ll be sunny, but it’s that "bright but freezing" kind of day that Mississippi does so well in January.
Why the weather forecast Carthage MS is rarely "average"
People talk about average temperatures for Carthage in January being around 56°F for a high and 37°F for a low. But "average" is a bit of a myth around here. The state climatologists often describe our weather as "feast or famine." We are caught in a constant tug-of-war between the cold air masses sliding down from the Plains and the warm, moist air pushing up from the Gulf of Mexico.
When those two collide over Leake County, things get interesting. We saw this yesterday with a 75% chance of rain during the day turning into a 100% chance of snow overnight as the temperature plummeted to 32°F. It’s that tight margin—just one or two degrees—that decides if you're waking up to a wet driveway or a winter wonderland.
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Mid-week rain and the return of the 50s
Looking further out, Monday stays chilly with a high of 50°F and another freezing night at 26°F. By Tuesday, we dip slightly to 46°F. The real change arrives Wednesday, January 21. The clouds will move back in, and we’ll see a high of 55°F.
Wednesday night brings a 45% chance of rain showers as the low settles at 33°F. This pattern of "warm up, rain, then freeze" is typical for our transition into late January. By next Sunday, January 25, the rain chances jump back up to 40% during the day and 75% at night with a high of 53°F.
Dealing with the "sneaky" winter hazards
The Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) always warns about "sneaky" hazards. In Carthage, that usually means black ice on those shaded stretches of Highway 35 or the bridges over the Pearl River. Even when the weather forecast Carthage MS says it's clear, a quick drop to 25°F after a rainy day—like we're seeing tonight—is the perfect recipe for dangerous spots on the road.
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Honestly, the wind chill is the part people forget. On Sunday, even with the sun out, an 8 mph wind will make that 43°F feel like the mid-30s. If you’re heading to church or just running to the grocery store, layers are your best friend.
Actionable steps for the coming days
Since we are looking at several nights in a row with lows between 25°F and 26°F, here is what you actually need to do:
- Drip the faucets: It’s an old-school move, but it works. Let the ones on exterior walls have a very slow drip to keep the water moving.
- Check your pets: With lows hitting 25°F, any outdoor animals need a dry, wind-blocked space or, better yet, a spot inside the garage or house.
- Vehicle prep: Keep your gas tank at least half full. It helps prevent moisture from freezing in the fuel lines during these hard freezes.
- Watch the bridges: Sunday morning will be particularly risky for any lingering moisture from Friday's precipitation.
The rest of the week looks relatively stable until the rain returns next Wednesday. Keep an eye on those overnight lows; in Carthage, that’s usually where the real trouble starts.