Honestly, if you're looking at the weather forecast Buffalo NY right now, you’re probably seeing a lot of "snow showers" and "20 degrees" and thinking, classic Buffalo. But there’s a massive arctic hammer about to drop that makes the current 21°F feel like a tropical vacation.
It’s nighttime on Saturday, January 17, 2026. The wind is coming off the southwest at 15 mph, and the humidity is sitting at a thick 88%. It's cloudy. Quiet.
But the National Weather Service just flipped the switch. They've upgraded the previous watch to a full-blown Winter Storm Warning.
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The Arctic Front Is Real
We’re looking at a serious shift starting Sunday afternoon, specifically around 1 PM. While today was relatively "warm" at 36°F, Sunday’s high is only hitting 19°F. That’s a 17-degree drop in 24 hours. Basically, the mild stuff is over.
By Monday morning, January 19, the real trouble starts. The "feels like" temperatures are going to be brutal. We’re talking wind chills between 5 and 15 below zero. If you have to commute Monday evening or Tuesday morning, you’ve gotta be careful. The wind is forecasted to gust up to 50 mph.
When you combine 50 mph gusts with a lake-effect machine that’s firing at 2 inches of snow per hour, you get whiteouts. You literally won't be able to see the hood of your car.
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Why This Storm Is Different
Most people think Buffalo just gets "snow." Kinda true, but it’s the source that matters. Right now, Lake Erie is weirdly open. Usually, by mid-January, we’d have more ice coverage, but it recently plummeted to under 3%.
Why does that matter for the weather forecast Buffalo NY?
Open water is fuel. Cold arctic air passes over that "warm" (relative to the air) water, picks up moisture, and dumps it as heavy, wet snow. The forecast is calling for 10 to 20 inches of total accumulation through Wednesday. The heaviest hits are expected in the Boston Hills, the Chautauqua Ridge, and the Buffalo Southtowns.
What to Expect Day-by-Day
- Sunday (Today): Snow showers throughout the day and night. High of 19°F, low of 15°F. Southwest winds at 15 mph.
- Monday: This is the pivot point. Snow showers turn into a steady, heavy snow at night. The high is 22°F, but it drops to a low of 10°F. Wind speeds jump to 26 mph.
- Tuesday: Brutally cold. High of 13°F and a low of 9°F. West winds at 20 mph will keep the lake effect machine pointing right at the Southtowns.
- Wednesday: A slight "warm-up" to 31°F, but still snowing.
Practical Survival Steps
Don't be the person who thinks their all-season tires are "fine." They aren't.
- Check your battery. Extreme cold like the 9°F we’re seeing Tuesday kills older batteries.
- Fill the tank. If you get stuck in a whiteout on the Thruway, you need that engine running for heat.
- Wind chill is the enemy. At 15 below zero, frostbite can happen in 30 minutes. Cover your face.
- Watch the Southtowns. If you live in Northern Erie, you might see 5 inches. If you’re in the Southtowns, you might see 20. That’s the "lake effect tax."
The hazardous weather outlook is pretty clear: travel will be "treacherous and potentially life-threatening" from Monday morning through Wednesday morning. If you can work from home, do it. This isn't just a flurry; it's a full-on arctic cycle that's going to park itself over Western New York for the next few days.
Be smart. Check the radar before you head out, and maybe grab an extra bag of salt tonight before the southwest winds really start howling.