If you stepped outside in Hunterdon County this morning, you probably noticed something felt off for mid-January. Usually, this time of year in Jersey involves scraping a thick layer of ice off your windshield while your fingers go numb. But the weather for today Flemington is bucking the trend of a typical Northeast winter, trading those sub-zero wind chills for a surprisingly mild, if somewhat gloomy, atmosphere.
Honestly, we are sitting right in the middle of a significant "January Thaw." While the historical average high for January 14 in Flemington usually hovers around a crisp 38°F, today is smashing through that ceiling. We are looking at a high of 51°F. That is a massive 13-degree jump over the norms.
But don't go putting your heavy parka in storage just yet. The sky is staying stubbornly cloudy, and there is a dampness in the air that reminds you it's still winter, even if the thermometer says otherwise.
What to Expect Hour-by-Hour
Most of your morning is going to be dominated by thick, gray cloud cover. It's the kind of day where the sun tries to peek through around noon but basically gives up.
- Morning: We started in the low 40s. It feels a bit raw because the humidity is sitting near 61%, making that 36°F "feels like" temperature bite just a little.
- Afternoon: This is when we hit that 51°F peak. Winds are coming out of the south at about 7 mph, which is exactly why it’s so warm. That southern flow is dragging up milder air from the coast.
- Evening: Temperatures will stay relatively propped up in the high 30s. We aren't seeing a massive crash immediately after sunset, which is a nice break for anyone heading out to Main Street for dinner.
The real story, though, isn't just the warmth—it's the rain. While the daylight hours only carry about a 10% chance of a sprinkle, things change once the sun goes down. By tonight, the chance of rain jumps to 35%. It won't be a washout, but expect some light, persistent drizzle that makes the roads just greasy enough to be annoying.
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The Science Behind the Warmth
Why is Flemington so warm when it should be freezing? Meteorologists at the National Weather Service and private forecasters like those at WeatherTrends360 have been tracking a weakening Polar Vortex.
When the vortex is strong, it keeps the arctic air bottled up near the North Pole. When it wobbles—which is what’s happening right now—it allows southern ridges to push north. This "ridge" of high pressure is currently sitting over the Eastern Seaboard, acting like a warm blanket.
However, there is a catch. This warmth is often the "calm before the storm." Historically, when we see these weirdly warm spikes in mid-January, they are frequently followed by a sharp "cold front" transition. We’ve seen this happen in Flemington plenty of times, where you’re in a t-shirt on Wednesday and shoveling six inches of heavy wet snow by Friday.
Is This Rain or a Wintry Mix?
For today, it is strictly rain. The ground temperature is currently around 39°F, which is well above the freezing mark. Even though we had some colder nights recently, the soil hasn't frozen solid yet.
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This means that when the rain starts tonight, we don't have to worry about that nightmare scenario of rain freezing on contact with the pavement (black ice). It’s just going to be wet.
Looking ahead at the local data, the real shift happens tomorrow. Thursday, January 15, is already showing signs of a "wintry mix" as a colder air mass begins to bleed back into Hunterdon County. The high will drop to 41°F, and we could see a transition from rain to sleet or even a few flurries by the evening.
Flemington Weather Today vs. Historical Norms
| Metric | Today's Forecast | Historical Average |
|---|---|---|
| High Temp | 51°F | 38°F |
| Low Temp | 37°F | 21°F |
| Humidity | 60% | 63% |
| Chance of Rain | 10% (Day) / 35% (Night) | 24% |
How to Handle the Damp Chill
Even with the 51°F high, Flemington feels "damp-cold." Because the dewpoint is sitting in the mid-20s while the temperature rises, the air can hold more moisture, which makes the chill feel like it’s soaking into your clothes.
If you're heading to the Stangl Factory or walking around the borough, stick to layers. A light waterproof shell is better than a heavy wool coat today because of that evening drizzle risk.
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Also, keep an eye on your basement. This sudden thaw, combined with the rain, can lead to quick snowmelt in the surrounding rural areas of Raritan Township. If you have a sump pump, it’s probably a good idea to make sure it’s actually cycling, especially since the ground is already quite saturated from the 51 inches of annual precipitation we've been seeing lately.
Looking Forward: The Arctic Gate is Opening
The most important thing to know about the weather for today Flemington is that it’s a temporary window.
Data from the Old Farmer’s Almanac and recent NWS updates suggest that the second half of January 2026 is going to be much more "traditional." We are entering a period where the Polar Vortex is expected to fully break down, potentially sending surges of Arctic air deep into New Jersey.
We might be enjoying 50-degree weather now, but the models for the end of the month are hinting at highs that struggle to get out of the 20s. Essentially, today is your chance to get those outdoor chores done—clean the gutters, check the tire pressure, or just take a long walk—before the deep freeze returns.
Stay dry tonight as that rain moves in around 8:00 PM. The wind will pick up slightly from the south-southwest, so if you have loose patio furniture, you might want to tuck it away. It’s a weird, mild, gray day in Flemington, but in Jersey, that’s just how January rolls sometimes.
Next Steps for Today:
Check your sump pump and drainage areas before the rain picks up tonight. If you have outdoor errands, try to finish them before 4:00 PM to avoid the highest humidity and the start of the evening drizzle.