If you’ve lived in Missouri for more than five minutes, you know the drill. You check the app, see a sun icon, and ten minutes later you’re questioning your life choices while scraping sleet off a windshield. St. Louis weather is a moody beast. This particular stretch—starting Thursday, January 15, 2026—is a perfect example of why "predictable" isn't in our vocabulary.
Everyone expects January to be a brutal, frozen wasteland from start to finish. Honestly, that’s just not how it works here. We’re sitting in that mid-month sweet spot where the atmosphere is basically having an identity crisis.
The Mid-January "Fake Out"
Right now, we are sliding into what looks like a surprisingly mild window. For the next several days, the weather for the week in St. Louis is going to feel a bit... off. In a good way. Mostly.
According to current National Weather Service data from the Lambert-St. Louis International Airport station, we are seeing a shift away from the frigid flurries that kicked off the month. While the typical January high struggles to hit 41°F, we are currently tracking toward a "very mild" stretch.
Wait. Don't go packing away the heavy coat just yet.
The humidity is hovering around 35% with a dewpoint of roughly 6°F. It’s dry. It’s crisp. But that southern breeze at 7-15 mph is keeping us from falling into a deep freeze. For the window of January 15 through January 20, expect plenty of sun. It’s the kind of weather that tricks you into thinking spring is early, only to remind you that February exists.
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What to Expect: Weather for the Week in St. Louis
The transition from Thursday into the weekend is the headline. We aren't looking at major precipitation events—at least not immediately.
Thursday and Friday (Jan 15-16): Expect mostly cloudy skies to give way to clearer patches. Highs are hovering in that comfortable-for-winter range, likely staying above the freezing mark during the day. The overnight lows will still bite, dropping into the mid-20s. If you're heading out to the Loop or taking a walk in Forest Park, that wind chill is the real factor. Even if the thermometer says 38°F, the wind makes it feel like 24°F.
The Weekend Outlook (Jan 17-18): This is where it gets interesting. We are looking at a "very mild" trend. Sunny skies. Temperatures potentially creeping into the high 40s or even low 50s. It is the perfect time for eagle watching along the Mississippi. The bald eagles love this clear, bright weather, and frankly, so do we.
The Early Week Shift (Jan 19-20): Enjoy the sun while it lasts. The ridge of high pressure that’s keeping us dry is going to start breaking down. By Tuesday, we’ll see increased cloud cover. It's the prelude to a much messier system brewing for the tail end of the month.
Why January in St. Louis is a Statistical Chaos
People think January is just "cold." But if you look at the records, this month is a rollercoaster.
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In 1982, St. Louis hit a wind chill of -44°F. That’s "exposed skin freezes in seconds" territory. Then you have years like this one, where the "Heartland" long-range forecast suggests we’ll stay 1° above the average temperature of 31°F.
We actually get more sunshine in January than you’d think. About 5 hours a day. It feels gray because when it is cloudy, it’s that thick, Missouri-gray that feels like a heavy blanket. But statistically, January 16 is one of the clearest days of the entire month.
The Hidden Danger: Freezing Fog
One thing that doesn't get enough play in local news is freezing fog.
When we have these mild days followed by clear, cold nights, the moisture near the ground turns into a nightmare for bridges and overpasses. Even if it hasn't rained, the "slick spots" can be lethal. The NWS has already issued localized advisories for northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois regarding this. If you're commuting on I-64 or I-70 early in the morning, watch the road surface. If it looks damp but there's no spray from the car in front of you, it’s probably black ice.
How to Actually Prepare for This Week
Stop checking the "daily high" and start checking the "hourly trend."
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In St. Louis, the temperature can drop 20 degrees in two hours once the sun dips behind the buildings.
- Layering is your best friend. Since we’re expecting a mild mid-week, a heavy parka will make you sweat during a lunchtime walk but you’ll freeze by 5:00 PM in just a sweater.
- Check your tire pressure. These fluctuations—from 20 degrees at night to 45 in the day—wreak havoc on your PSI. That "low tire" light isn't a glitch; it's physics.
- Hydrate your skin. With humidity down in the 30% range, the air is sucking moisture out of everything.
Looking Ahead: The Jan 21 "Cliff"
There is a snowstorm signal on the horizon.
Long-range models for the period of January 21 through the end of the month are pointing toward a significant frigid turn. We are basically in the "calm before the storm" right now. The mild temperatures we’re enjoying are the fuel for the cold front that's going to eventually collide with moisture from the south.
Expect a major shift in the weather for the week in St. Louis as we move toward next Wednesday. We're talking a potential return to "frigid" status with a measurable snow threat.
Actionable Winter Readiness
- Monitor the bridge conditions. Especially during the mild-to-cold transitions on Friday morning.
- Prep the car kit. If the predicted snowstorm for the 21st holds true, you don't want to be buying a shovel and salt when everyone else is at Schnucks.
- Take advantage of the sun. Saturday and Sunday are the "golden days" for outdoor activity before the gray returns.
- Watch the wind. Sustained winds from the south-southeast will keep things mild, but once they clock around to the northwest, the "feels like" temp will crater.
Stay ahead of the shifts. St. Louis weather doesn't care about your plans, so keep your tank half full and your ice scraper handy.